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SALT LAKE CITY — Utah’s Republican and Democratic parties are both preparing for what a possible Donald Trump nomination could mean for other races appearing on the November ballot.
The political maneuvering over the so-called "Trump Effect" comes after Utah Republican caucus voters sent the billionaire businessman away with a third-place finish — a result only seen in one other state so far this primary election.
“Donald Trump is not a favorite in Utah on either side of the political parties,” said Utah Democratic Party Chair Peter Corroon. “If Donald Trump is on the ballot, Republicans could stay home.”
If Trump appears on the top of the ticket, anti-Trump backlash could keep conservative voters away from the polls and provide extra motivation for Democrats to show up and vote.
From a Democratic perspective, Corroon says that “there are a lot of races going on this year that could benefit from Democrats coming out and Republicans staying home.”
In fact, a recent Deseret News/KSL poll found that Utahns would vote for a Democratic presidential candidate for the first time since 1964 if Trump were the Republican nominee.
After the results of last week’s caucus meetings, Utah GOP Chairman James Evans spoke publically about a get-out-the-vote campaign called “Plan T for Trump.”
"There's a difference between your presidential candidate and then those candidates on the ticket here in Utah," Evans said.
Besides voter turnout, another potential problem for Utah Republicans would be voters sidestepping the straight-party voting option as a way to avoid supporting Trump — which would leave contests lower on the ballot to be decided one by one.
“Turnout is a big, big deal in elections,” said U of U political science assistant professor Jim Curry. “It’s not always about winning voters over from one side or another; it’s about getting your voters to show up and getting other voters to stay home, and Trump could be the kind of candidate that really influences that in a way we haven’t seen in a while.”
“It’s not always about winning voters over from one side or another; it’s about getting your voters to show up and getting other voters to stay home." - Jim Curry, asst. professor
Given the strong anti-Trump sentiment among Utah Republicans, Curry said it’s a smart move for Utah Republicans to focus energy on other statewide and local races where GOP candidates could be vulnerable due to low turnout.
“If they’re worried about people staying home this is exactly what they have to do,” Curry said. “If Trump is the nominee, it could be a problem if the same Republican voters who wouldn’t show up and vote for him at the caucuses — or more specifically showed up to vote against him at the caucuses — in November decide they’re still uncomfortable and just decide to stay home instead.”
