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SALT LAKE CITY — While Mayor Ralph Becker and challenger Jackie Biskupski's campaigns hit full throttle the final week before Nov. 3, political experts said the results will likely be too close to call on election night.
"Every vote is going to count," said Tim Chambless, a University of Utah political science professor affiliated with the Hinkley Institute of Politics.
A poll released Thursday showed Biskupski had a slight lead over Becker among likely voters, but Chambless said the numbers still reflect a statistical tie.
"It's going to be a late night," he said. "We won't decide this race early."
Salt Lake County Clerk Sherrie Swensen said the race could "absolutely" rely on canvas results to finalize the winner, meaning Salt Lake City voters may not know who their mayor will be until the canvas period is completed Nov. 17.
"If this race is close, the election night results will definitely not tell the whole story," Swensen said. "That's why we hope we get ballots back sooner rather than later."
Nearly 25 percent of Salt Lake City's 72,000 vote-by-mail ballots were returned as of Friday, Swensen said, but that still leaves thousands unmarked — voters Becker and Biskupski hope to capture in their last-ditch campaign efforts.
"It's a huge push down the stretch," said Matt Lyon, Becker's campaign spokesman.
Both Becker and Biskupski's campaigns were out Saturday knocking on doors and will contine the process of making phone calls and visiting with Salt Lake City residents over the next week, according to Lyon and Biskupski's campaign manager Lindsay Barenz.
"Our main concern is getting people to vote," Barenz said. "It's going to be a very tight race, so every vote will matter."
Since vote-by-mail doubled voter turnout in primary elections, Swensen said she expects Salt Lake City's turnout to reach 60 percent, a rate that would be unprecedented in Salt Lake County municipal elections.
"I'm quite excited about the fact that voters have been so engaged in this race, at a level we haven't seen in a very long time," Biskupski said.
Becker and Biskupski both said they're confident that the race will tip in their favor, despite the close poll numbers.
"I continue to feel that the momentum is coming my way," the mayor said. "Everybody in my arena seems to be engaged and have a real positive attitude and energy. I just want to finish strong."
But Barenz said Biskupski's internal campaign data shows a lead over Becker, despite a financial disadvantage, since campaign finance disclosures show Becker has had at least $300,000 more than Biskupski.
"We have been outspent by tens of thousands of dollars by the mayor on TV ads, but we're holding our lead," Barenz said.
As of Friday, Becker's campaign has spent more than $62,000 on KSL-TV ads to Biskupski's $20,000.
Chambless said voters face a "hard choice," since both Becker and Biskupski make excellent candidates.
"Salt Lake's not going to lose in this situation," he said. "I'm comfortable with Becker being re-elected, but I'm also comfortable with Biskupski being elected ... I'm happy that we have a competitive race with two very good, issues-oriented candidates."
Swensen said other high-profile issues should also drive Salt Lake County voters to cast their ballots soon, including community preservation for unincorporated and township residents, as well as Proposition 1, a proposed tax increase to fund local transportation projects.
"These are very important races," she said. "They have a huge impact on the everyday lives of citizens."
However, the county's voters still have work to do, Swensen said, since the county has only received about 80,000 out of the 402,000 ballots back so far. That's only about 19 percent.
Vote-by-mail ballots must be postmarked by Nov. 2. Voters who wish to cast their ballots in person can do so at vote centers listed on slco.org/clerk.
The election's preliminary results will be posted on Salt Lake County's website at about 8 p.m Nov 3, and election officials will tally and post results from the polling centers and remaining vote-by-mail ballots no later than 10 p.m., Swensen said.
