AP-NW--KNHC-NW Tropical Weather Discussion, NW

092

AXPZ20 KNHC 080936

TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1005 UTC SAT MAR 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM

THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS

BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND

METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH

0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 07N85W TO 02N95W

TO 04N100W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N100W TO 06N120W TO

BEYOND 05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

A SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES

AND N CENTRAL MEXICO CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THIS

MORNING...SUPPORTING A 1004 MB SURFACE LOW OVER N CENTRAL

MEXICO. FARTHER WEST...A DEEP LAYER RIDGE N OF 20N ALONG ROUGHLY

130W IS SUPPORTING 1023 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 33N128W. THE

PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS CONTRIBUTING TO 20 TO 25

KT NW TO N FLOW FUNNELING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA

PENINSULA...AS NOTED IN VARIOUS SHIP OBSERVATIONS. A 0430 UTC

ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT WINDS N OF 26N BETWEEN 115W AND

125W. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS THE SUPPORTING

UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD AHEAD OF A SHARP UPPER TROUGH

CURRENTLY N OF HAWAII MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH 155W.

MEANWHILE A LARGE SWATH OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WITH SEAS 8 TO

11 FT CONTINUE TO OVER THE WATERS N OF 20N E OF 125W...IMPACTING

THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF CABO SAN LAZARO. THE SWELL

WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THIS

AREA.

FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER

THE GREAT BASIN AS THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SHIFT EAST LATER TODAY.

THIS WILL SET UP A DECENT PRES GRADIENT WITH THE LOWER PRES OVER

N CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH A 12 TO 15 MB DIFFERENCE IN PRES BY

TONIGHT. WHILE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS FROM SAN FELIPE IN THE

NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ARE STILL LIGHT...OBSERVATIONS

FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER INDICATED WINDS TO 20 KT

BEFORE THEY DECOUPLED FOR THE EVENING. GIVEN THIS PATTERN AND

THE TREND IN THE OBSERVATIONS...EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N

FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF LATER TODAY AND PERSISTING INTO

SUNDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRES

WEAKENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST.

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WINDS FROM 06N TO 20N W OF 125W ARE

DIMINISHING AS THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS. SIMILARLY NW

SWELL TO 8 FT IN THIS AREA IS DECAYING RAPIDLY...ALTHOUGH THE

NEXT SET OF NW SWELL IS APPROACHING 30N140W FROM THE N CENTRAL

PACIFIC. THE LEADING EDGE OF 8 FT OR GREATER IS EXPECTED TO

REACH FROM THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST TO 06N140W BY LATE MONDAY. A

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO APPROACH 30N140W THIS

MORNING...PRECEDED BY FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE FRONT

ALONG WITH THE ACCOMPANYING WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND STALL FROM

30N135W TO 27N140W BY LATE SAT NIGHT.

A WEAKENING CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS SITUATED NEAR 10N102W. THIS IS

SUPPORTING PULSES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 240 NM OF

THE CENTER. THIS CONVECTION HAS SINCE DISSIPATED...BUT SOME

MINOR FLARE UPS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING CLOSER TO THE

COAST OF MEXICO AS OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE COAST

CONVERGE OFF SHORE.

GAP WINDS...WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH 3-5

FT SEAS IN THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA...AND PANAMA

THROUGH MONDAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN THE GULF OF

PAPAGAYO...EXCEPT INCREASING TO MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS WITH

SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING

HOURS WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW ENHANCEMENT.

$$

CHRISTENSEN

Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Sat Mar 8 2014 4:36AM EST

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