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AP-NW--KNHC-NW Tropical Weather Discussion, NW



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482

AXNT20 KNHC 071119

TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

705 AM EST FRI MAR 07 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL

AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF

SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE

EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE

IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL

ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH

1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A GALE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LATE FRI NIGHT OVER THE SW N

ATLANTIC N OF 27N WITHIN 150 NM SE OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO

EXTEND FROM 31N68W TO 21N78W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST

THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST

UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT01 KNHC OR THE OFFSHORE

FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE

DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC

NEAR 5N9W AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N20W TO 1N30W. THE ITCZ BEGINS

NEAR 1N30W AND CONTINUES TO 0S40W TO COASTAL BRAZIL NEAR 0S50W.

CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITH

EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE FROM 1S-6N BETWEEN E OF 15W. SCATTERED

MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-5N BETWEEN 20W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WITH AXIS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUE

TO SUPPORT A FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE SW N ATLC ASSOCIATED WITH A

1004 MB LOW NEAR 32N76W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW AND

MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL-SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO ENTER THE STRAITS NEAR

25N81W TO NW CUBA NEAR 23N82W AND THEN INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN.

DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW ALOFT IS BEING GENERATED BY A BROAD UPPER

LEVEL RIDGE COVERING MOST OF THE W ATLC AND THE CARIBBEAN TO

ENHANCE PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A SURFACE

RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH ON THE BORDER OF ARKANSAS AND

LOUISIANA EXTENDS INTO THE WESTERN GULF AND PROVIDES NORTHERLY-

NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW OF 5-10 KT W OF 90W AND OF 15-20 KT

ELSEWHERE. SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF

THE FRONT THROUGH SAT. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE W

GULF SUN MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH WITH A BASE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS

A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE BASIN BY WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N83W

AND THEN EXTENDS ALONG 18N86W TO NW HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W. UPPER

LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORTS SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF

THE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY S OF 21N. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE

WESTERN ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY

INDICATING DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN.

HOWEVER...SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE

ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND EASTERN CUBA AS WELL AS ENTERING

THE EASTERN BASIN WHICH MAY ENHANCE PASSING SHOWERS IN THESE

REGIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...TRADES OF 15-20 KT ARE

ACROSS THE BASIN E OF 77W WHILE LIGHTER SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW

DOMINATE THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE

SE OVER CUBA AND THE NW BASIN AND WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE EARLY

SAT.

HISPANIOLA...

DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT CONTINUES TO HINDER DEEP

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...A PATCH OF LOW

LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CUBA INTO THE ISLAND MAY

GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER HAITI...WINDWARD PASSAGE AND

ADJACENT WATERS. LOOKING AHEAD...THE PROXIMITY OF A COLD FRONT

IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE MAY INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE AREA

ON SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS

CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE SW N ATLC

ASSOCIATED WITH A 1004 MB LOW NEAR 32N76W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS

FROM THIS LOW ALONG 30N78W TO 27N80W...ACROSS CENTRAL-SOUTHERN

FLORIDA AND THEN INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND

TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE NOTED N OF 26N W OF 73W. A

SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A

1023 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES AND A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 26N43W.

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ON THE SW N

ATLC ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT

HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

NR

Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Fri Mar 7 2014 6:19AM EST

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The Associated Press

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