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Checking out the latest "Bubble Watch" on ESPN.com, Andy Glockner wrote the following in regards to BYU, in the "Should Be In" category:
"Brigham Young: [21-6 (10-2), RPI: 26, SOS: 86] The Cougars were misslotted last week and take their rightful place at the next level in this edition, despite the Saturday loss at San Diego State. That removes a bit of the Cougars' margin for error, but if they can win at New Mexico on Tuesday (no given at all), they would be in very good shape to win the Mountain West, which basically is a golden ticket. The RPI remains good. The Cougars have a very good nonconference win over Louisville and lost to North Carolina and Michigan State in competitive efforts. The loss at Wake Forest doesn't look nearly as bad now as it did when it happened."
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Interesting that the "Watch" acknowledges that BYU was underrated last week (in the "Work Left To Do" category). UNLV and New Mexico are in the "Work Left To Do" category this week. Contrary to my expectation, BYU did not take a hit after losing at SDSU, while a win at New Mexico coupled with a home win over Air Force should keep BYU in Andy Glockner's good graces.
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Among the many accepted truisms in the college basketball: home teams usually shoot more free throws than the visitors. The home team is often the more aggressive, and is frequently rewarded as such.
Note that in BYU's home games this season, the Cougars average 25 free throw attempts, but only 16 free throw attempts in road games. In games this week, BYU shot a season high 32 free throws v. Utah (home), and a season-low 6 free throws v. SDSU (road). A season high and a season low in back-to-back games. Did BYU's offensive philosophy change overnight? No, it's just college basketball, although to the extremes this week.
Similarly, in BYU's wins, the Cougars average 22.4 three throw attempts--14 free throw attempts in losses. When things are going well, confidence is high, drives are more common and defensive frustration is evidenced in fouls. When a team is losing, shots are often quicker, from further out, and fouls are less frequent. These are generalities, since cirumstances will frequently vary and not follow those scenarios.
Foul and free throw patterns may often be identified as ready culprits by losing teams, but more often than not, the starker truth is hidden in equally meaningful stats. In BYU's case last night, too many turnovers, the trouble securing defensive rebounds and the difficulty in converting post opportunities (10 for 32 shooting from BYU's "4" and "5" men) were as responsible for the loss.
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