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SALT LAKE CITY — Year four for Gordon Hayward has all the makings of a big year. He has shown he can be productive in different capacities, now he has the chance to show he can be All-Star productive.
Hayward spent a few weeks working out with the U.S. National team and made a big impression on the people who saw him play. He is the old man of the team and now has his chance to step up.
Here are three reasons why he could or could not be an All-Star this season.
Why he won't be an All-Star:
He is far better late in the season than at the start. His rookie year he didn't crack the starting lineup, or get any real starting time until the last month of the season. Even that might mostly be because the playoffs were out of reach. However, the end of his rookie year he looked like he could break out in year two.
The lockout year he didn't average double-figures in the first two months of the season, essentially scoring 9 points per game. By the end of the season, the last month he scored 16 per game. His minutes went up, but not by that much. He shot 19 percent from beyond the arc in February of that year, but 49 percent in April.
Last year he couldn't find his rhythm early on to the point that he was removed from his starting role for a large chunk of the season. He regained his form and eventually became a top-3 player on the team by the end of the season if not the most important by the end.
The All-Star break is in February, that doesn't give players a lot of time to shake the rust off.
Will he even be the best player on his own team? Hayward might be the most proven player on the Jazz roster, well at least the starting lineup, but there is a chance he won't be the best player on the team.
This next little section is going to be interesting because it probably won't happen, but it revolves around Tyrone Corbin's offense. The offense in the last two years has revolved around the low-post play. Corbin insists they are an inside-out team and that might not change. Which means Hayward might not be the focal point of the offense.
The focus would probably be on Enes Kanter. Big Turkey made huge strides last season in his body and work on the court. If he can become a prolific scorer it would be really hard to take Hayward seriously as an All-Star threat.
It would be very hard to see a wing player make the group of the best players in the NBA when he isn't the best scorer on his team, especially a small-market team. He would have to put up huge numbers outside of points to get enough attention to get an outside shot.
There is a small-market bias. Fan voting question: If a Clipper, Laker, Spur, Thunder or Rocket player has similar numbers to a player on the Jazz who is going to get the vote? Not totally a small-market bias, because Oklahoma City and San Antonio aren't big, but the Jazz are smaller. That is to say in the eyes of the fans they are smaller.
This means that not only would Hayward have to beat out other wing players to earn a spot he would have to beat them handily. He would have to have a spectacular year and the Jazz would have to probably win some games to get some attention.
Hayward might get some love from coaches who pick the reserves, but again he would need to be more than just solid. Hayward would probably have to be second in points, rebounds and assists and look really good on defense to get a vote.
Why he could be an All-Star:
There is a buzz already surrounding him. Hayward did spend time with the best young players from the U.S.A. and showed that he belongs. The National Team invited him and Derrick Favors to play and tryout for the team. Entering the camp both were probably long shots and Favors would probably be the favorites.
As the week ended Hayward was not only the favorite of the two, but might be in the drivers seat for a spot on the team. This first quote is from Sekou Smith of NBA.com that has been talked about a few times.
"One of the true breakout performers during the mini-camp," Smith said. "If there was a 12-man group being selected this summer Hayward would no doubt be on the list. Listed at 210 pounds on the official roster, he seems much bigger and played like it in scrimmages. His best work might have been on the defensive end. His versatility could be the key to his chances of fighting for a roster spot next summer."
The 12-man group line is the kicker. Think about that for a minute. While not everyone was there, and international players were excluded, he was good enough to be listed as one of the 12-best. This is probably just for the World Cup team, which isn't as prestigious as the Olympics, but that'd mean he is still a top-25 or so American player. With international players mixed in he'd probably fall in line to the 40th or so spot, but that isn't that far off.
Even ESPN's Marc Stein thinks that Hayward is a viable option to play for the National Team.
"Portland's Damian Lillard would appear to have a shot as well, with two of the darlings of the week heading the list of dark-horse contenders as camp breaks: Utah's Gordon Hayward and Denver's Kenneth Faried," Stein said.
These are just two writers, but it isn't about the words, but the fact that the buzz is there. If his name stays on the tip of the NBA world's tongue he could break into the conversation.
Hayward could easily continue his improvement. This section is going to use his per-36 numbers so keep that in mind. Hayward has improved his points per 36 by 3 each year in the league. With the lack of a number one option like Al Jefferson he could do so again. That would land him in the area of 20 points per 36 minutes. With the lack of, how to put this delicately, good players rounding out the roster he might have to play 36 or so.
He has averaged about 30 minutes per game over the past two years, but that should go up to 32 or so, which would still give him 18 points per game roughly.
He would have to improve his other stats as well to have a shot at 18 points per game. Hayward's assist numbers should go up just for the fact that he will probably be controlling the ball on a more regular basis this year. There isn't an established point guard, so he and Trey Burke, and to an extent Alec Burks, will split time taking the ball down.
Jumping back to a per game breakdown Hayward averaged 3 assists and 3.1 rebounds per game. That won't cut it for an All-Star performance. His assist numbers should go up, just by having more chances. His rebounds will be the question. Can he grab an extra three a game? 18 points, six rebounds and around seven assists could give him a good shot. If he can make more strides on defense that could easily push him to the fringe debate.
There is a lack at the wing position. Really other than Kevin Durant name the other dominant small forward in the West. Behind Durant, who scored a lot, the next highest scoring small forward in the West was Danilo Gallinari then Chandler Parsons. No offense to them, but they aren't exactly dominant.
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Of course the All-Star game isn't defined by position anymore, starting or the bench, but the comparison could really give Hayward an edge in the battle. Of course Hayward himself isn't a pure small forward, so there is that also. He is probably better served in the shooting guard spot. Even so, last year the shooting guard spot in the West isn't that strong. James Harden is an All-Star on the way up, Kobe Bryant on the way down, Manu Ginobili is a shell of himself and Andre Iguodala could lose some stats between Klay Thompson, Harrison Barnes and Steph Curry.
Bryant might not be ready for the season, of course he could make it by playing three minutes, and Thompson and Iguodala could combine to be just good enough as a pair to get neither in. There is always a next big thing that could happen, but it could just as well be Hayward this time.
Well, there it is. Three reasons why Hayward could be playing on the All-Star team this year along with three why he won't. Which will it be? Time is the key.
Can he show enough in the first few months to actually get some buzz going? Is the current support going to help push him over the top with stats that might not look as good? Could the West's need for a wing player overcome the small-town problems?
