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Carole Mikita reporting So, what did happen in New Hampshire? Did pollsters get it wrong with the Democrats? Did political pundits count candidates out too soon? Eyewitness News talked with our pollster, Dan Jones, for some day-after analysis.
What last night proved, Jones says, is that it's anybody's race--both on the Republican and Democratic sides. Never, he says, has the New Hampshire primary had so much scrutiny as this year.
More than 280,000 voted in the New Hampshire primary. A record-setting number of independents put Hillary Clinton and John McCain in the winners' seats.
Jones says Democratic polls were wrong because many decided at the last minute. "There are many, many Democrats who didn't make up their mind until they got in the booth, but especially that was true with independents," he said.
Is this Mitt Romney's swan song? Jones says not by a long shot. "Did you know, actually, Mr. Romney's ahead in delegate vote? And he's ahead by six votes over Mr. McCain and Mr. Huckabee," Jones explained.
Five primary or caucus votes come within a month: Jan. 15 is the Michigan GOP primary, Jan. 19 is the Nevada caucuses and the South Carolina GOP primary, Jan. 26 is the South Carolina Democratic primary, Jan. 29 is the Florida GOP primary, and on Feb. 5 more than 20 other states hold their primaries.
Women of all ages made the difference for Sen. Hillary Clinton, which Jones predicted. He also said religion would play a part. Mormonism did not affect Romney's run in New Hampshire, but the evangelical vote may still. "Now, South Carolina might put Huckabee back in the race because of the evangelical vote. Religion could play a major role in South Carolina," Jones said.
As a University of Utah professor, Jones hopes with some momentum lost in New Hampshire for Obama, college students will hang in there. "I hope the young people won't be discouraged and say, 'It's just the same old traditional things,' that they will keep that enthusiasm, keep turning out to vote," he said.
The next one to watch for is the Michigan GOP primary on Tuesday, Feb. 15. Because Michigan political parties changed the date of their primaries (jumping ahead of others), the Democratic delegates, at this point, will not be allowed to vote at the convention. So, both Barack Obama and John Edwards have withdrawn their names from the ballots.
