Utah Football Forecast: Looking ahead at 2012


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SALT LAKE CITY - On Thursday we looked at where Utah might fit into the Pac-12 Conference in 2012, and now, we are going to look at it a little more in-depth.

There are many questions facing the 2012 Utes, so let’s look at them one-by-one, starting with the quarterback situation.

Who will be the Utes’ 2012 starting quarterback?

Utah Football Forecast Part 1

Utah Football Forecast Part 2

Utah Football Forecast Part 3

Utah Football Forecast Part 4

When the 2011 season started, it was clear that Jordan Wynn was not back to 100 percent after his 2010 shoulder surgery. Wynn also struggled through some other minor issues at the start of the season that rendered him less effective. Just when those got taken care of, he got injured, again.

The offense had just began to click when Wynn was ruled out for the season. So does that mean that if Wynn is healthy he will be the starter going into 2012?

The Utes have two very talented quarterbacks coming in as freshmen: Chase Hansen out of Lone Peak High School in Highland, Utah, and Travis Wilson out of San Clemente High School in San Clemente, Calif.

Some fans have called for junior quarterback Jon Hays to be the starter going into 2012, but he may end up fourth on the depth chart. In fact, the only way I see him not ending up fourth would be if the Utes change Hansen’s position or if Hays doesn’t even make the team. Both of which are very real possibilities, believe it or not.

If Wynn is healthy, which he should be, at least for a minute, he should end up being the starter going into 2012. Freshmen have made impacts in the Pac-12 before, but the Utes would probably prefer a healthy Wynn over a true freshman as their starter.

Wilson looks like he has more physical tools than Hansen, but Hansen is more of an athlete. Former offensive coordinator Norm Chow thought much more highly of Wilson as a Pac-12 quarterback than Hansen. There were thoughts of moving Hansen to the defense, but head coach Kyle Whittingham seemed to value Hansen as a quarterback more than Chow did.

My projected quarterback depth chart has Wynn as the starter with Wilson, Hansen and Hays behind him in that order. However, there are so many things that could happen between now and the spring camp. One of those things is the new hire at offensive coordinator, which brings us to our next question:

Who will the Utes hire as the new offensive coordinator to replace Chow?

Aaron Roderick, WR coach, right, and QB coach, Brian Johnson, laugh during a Utah football practice at the University of Utah. (Michael Brandy, Deseret News)
Aaron Roderick, WR coach, right, and QB coach, Brian Johnson, laugh during a Utah football practice at the University of Utah. (Michael Brandy, Deseret News)

This hire could be the biggest decision that Whittingham has had in his career. Who he hires to replace Chow as the new offensive coordinator could make or break the program’s future. A good hire could put Utah on track to competing for the Rose Bowl consistently 5-10 years from now. A bad hire could put them in the cellar with the Colorado’s and Washington State’s of the world.Whittingham is keeping his intentions close to the vest with this hire. Most people are thinking that former co-offensive coordinator Aaron Roderick will end up with the job, but I’m not so sure. I’m hearing that around 60 coaches have inquired about the job from the time Chow was hired at Hawaii until now. Unfortunately, nobody is saying anything.

That said, anything here is just speculation based on what I know about Whittingham. So let’s speculate.

I do not believe that Whittingham will hire someone who brings the spread offense back. Whittingham is as conservative of a coach as there is in college football. He knows the Utes’ offensive strengths and he knows their current weaknesses.

If he really believes in one of the two incoming true freshmen quarterbacks, he may hire a spread offense guy, but I highly doubt it. I think they will try and hire an established pro-style offensive coordinator, maybe with a big name like Chow, but we will have to wait and see.

Who do the Utes have returning for 2012 on offense?

Utah Utes tight end Dallin Rogers (89) makes a reception for a first down with Brigham Young Cougars defensive back Daniel Sorensen defending as BYU and Utah play Saturday, Sept. 17, 2011 (Scott G Winerton, Deseret News)
Utah Utes tight end Dallin Rogers (89) makes a reception for a first down with Brigham Young Cougars defensive back Daniel Sorensen defending as BYU and Utah play Saturday, Sept. 17, 2011 (Scott G Winerton, Deseret News)

All the major playmakers will be coming back in 2012. The Utes’ top six receivers will all be returning. Leading receiver DeVonte Christopher will be a senior, Dres Anderson will be a sophomore, and Luke Matthews will be a senior.

Sophomore Kenneth Scott, junior Griff McNabb, and sophomore Quinton Pedroza are receivers fans should look for to make impacts in 2012. At 6-foot-3, Scott is the quintessential Pac-12 receiver and the Utes will look for him to step into that role possibly as soon as 2012, but probably more like 2013.

Senior Dallin Rogers, who will likely start at tight end, sophomore Jake Murphy, who will push Rogers for the starting spot, and senior Kendrick Moeai are other weapons for Wynn or whoever starts at quarterback.

Passing on the possibility of entering the NFL draft, John White will be back, but he may have some serious competition in the backfield. Crazy, right? It’s true. Junior college transfer Kelvin York may be able to compete with White for carries. At 5-11, 225 pounds, York will provide a stark contrast to White and a new element to the Ute offense. Look for York to make an immediate impact.

The biggest holes the offense will have to fill will be on the offensive line. With the graduation of Tony Bergstrom and John Cullen, the Utes will be looking for new leadership in the offensive trenches. The Utes went hard at the offensive line on the recruiting trails and there may be a few incoming players who could make an immediate impact, but probably not much of one.

Sophomore Latu Heimuli should be able to help fill the void, as well as junior Percy Taumoelau.

This unit should be able to continue its dominant run blocking, but it struggled to pass block at times last season. The Utes O-line allowed 33 sacks in 2011, good for 10th in the Pac-12. A lot of those sacks came early in the season and it seemed like the pass protection was much better late in the season.

Expect that early struggle to be the same in 2012, but it should get ironed out over the course of the season. The offensive line, nonetheless, will be the Utes’ biggest offensive question mark going into the season.

Who do the Utes have returning in 2012 on defense?

Utah Utes linebacker Brian Blechen (4) and Utah Utes defensive back Eric Rowe (18) tackle UCLA Bruins quarterback Kevin Prince (4) as the University of Utah plays UCLA in Salt Lake City. (Tom Smart, Deseret News)
Utah Utes linebacker Brian Blechen (4) and Utah Utes defensive back Eric Rowe (18) tackle UCLA Bruins quarterback Kevin Prince (4) as the University of Utah plays UCLA in Salt Lake City. (Tom Smart, Deseret News)

Graduation will cause no bigger hole on the team than the linebacker position. The Utes will be losing their two leading tacklers in linebackers Chaz Walker (115) and Matt Martinez (85). These are huge losses to the defensive front seven, which was the best in the Pac-12 and one of the best in the nation.

How will the Utes address these departures? Junior Trevor Reilly will still be around at linebacker and senior Boo Anderson will be back from his knee injury. Anderson has been steadily growing into the typical, hard-nosed Utah linebacker. Expect him to step up.

Sophomore VJ Fehoko is another linebacker whose name fans could hear a lot. It’s also likely that Blechen will move back to linebacker, making room for highly hyped safety Keith McGill, who will be back from his shoulder injury.

Pittsburgh quarterback Trey Anderson (10 )is pressured by Utah defensive tackle Star Lotulelei (92) and throws an incomplete pass during the fourth quarter of an NCAA college football game on Saturday, Oct. 15, 2011, in Pittsburgh. Utah won 26-14. (AP Photo/Keith Srakocic)
Pittsburgh quarterback Trey Anderson (10 )is pressured by Utah defensive tackle Star Lotulelei (92) and throws an incomplete pass during the fourth quarter of an NCAA college football game on Saturday, Oct. 15, 2011, in Pittsburgh. Utah won 26-14. (AP Photo/Keith Srakocic)

That is the core of linebackers who should make an impact in 2012, but the best guess of who the starters might be is tough at this point. It looks like you may see Blechen and Reilly filling out the two outside linebacker slots with Anderson starting at middle linebacker and Fehoko pushing him for the spot.

The depatures of All-Pac-12 defensive end Derrick Shelby leaves a gaping hole in the defense. Other defensive linemen like Tevita Finau, James Aiono and Nai Fotu all graduate. Those three gave the defensive line probably the most depth of any unit on the team. So while the loss of Shelby will be huge, the loss of those other three make it even worse.

The Utes have a few defensive ends coming in who might be able to make an immediate impact. Junior college transfers Sione Tupouata from Snow College and Koliniasi Leota from Mt. San Antonio College, may be able to play significant snaps immediately. Only time will tell, but Reilly may be an option to move to the line as well.

Star Lotulelei will be back for his senior season and both Kruger brothers will be back as well so expect the line to be as strong as it was this year against the run, but the loss of Shelby will make the pass rush drop off a bit.

The secondary will almost be fully intact with only one exception: senior cornerback Conroy Black. Senior Mo Lee looks like he will be the guy to step in to Black’s spot opposite senior Ryan Lacy. Lee has the talent, but his discipline needs to improve if he’s going to be the other corner. Senior nickel back Reggie Topps may compete for that spot too.

With 2011 freshman all-American Eric Rowe coming back and either Blechen or McGill manning the safety position, the secondary should improve from its solid 2011.

What about on special teams?

Placekicker Coleman Peterson will be a senior and so will punter Sean Sellwood. Keeping both around will probably be a good thing for the Utes. Sellwood was solid in 2011, helping the Utes win several key field-position battles. Peterson was memorably inconsistent, which may leak into 2012. Ute fans better hope it doesn’t because you can just about count on needing him in big games.

Which names will we be hearing a lot of in the future from the 2012 recruiting class?

We’ve already talked about Wilson and Hansen at quarterback. If I were a betting man, I would say Wilson will be the long-term quarterback for the Utes, but that doesn’t mean you won’t be hearing from Hansen.

If Wilson gets the nod over Hansen, expect Whittingham to move the very athletic Hansen to the defensive side of the ball. Hansen could project as a pretty good defensive back/safety.

We’ve also said that you can expect to see York making an immediate impact in the backfield. York is a Chris Polk-type of running back with both speed and power. York will have an impact in 2012 and should be the man in 2013. Although, I get the feeling that sophomore-to-be Harvey Langi might have something to say about that.

There will also be some offensive lineman you can almost certainly count on hearing a lot about in guard Cedrick Poutasi, (6-5, 322) from Las Vegas is one of them. It sounds like he’s the real deal. Marc Pouvave out of Southwestern Community College may be another offensive lineman who could get snaps right away.

Justin Thomas, a cornerback from Orange, Texas, is another player to watch. Thomas was rated by rivals.com as the 19th-best cornerback recruit in the country and the 33rd-best recruit out of the state of Texas. This kid is one I am personally very excited to watch at the college level.

A word of caution: recruiting classes can’t truly be judged until they arrive at school and get some playing time. Recruiting class rankings and star ratings are highly inexact sciences. ESPN ranked Miami’s recruiting class the best in the nation in 2008. How’d that work out?

BYU fans know this better than anybody. Jake Heaps was highly touted out of high school. We all know how that turned out. It’s all about how the players are handled when they get to the school and a myriad other variables. Luckily for Ute fans, Whittingham is one of the best college coaches at coaching players up.

Utah currently has 21 former players on NFL rosters. That compares favorably to BYU, which has 13, Arizona State who has 18 and UCLA who has 20.

Utah also isn’t that far behind the likes of Oregon, which has 26 former players in the NFL, Florida State and Nebraska, which have 30.

Numbers don't lie.

With a record for getting the most out of recruits gives the Utes a chance against programs like USC. Utah may not get the best-rated recruits, but Whittingham has proven that he can make the most of the recruits he does get.

What does Utah’s 2012 schedule look like and how will the Utes do against it?

The Utes start off with an almost guaranteed win against FCS Northern Colorado at home, then they travel to Utah State in Week 2.

2012 Utah Football Schedule

Aug. 30 (Thu.)Northern ColoradoSalt Lake City
Sept. 8at Utah StateLogan, Utah
Sept. 15Brigham YoungSalt Lake City
Sept. 22at Arizona State*Tempe, Ariz.
Sept. 29open
Oct. 4 (Thu.)USC*Salt Lake City
Oct. 13at UCLA*Los Angeles
Oct. 20at Oregon State*Corvallis, Ore.
Oct. 27California*Salt Lake City
Nov. 3Washington State*Salt Lake City
Nov. 10at Washington*Seattle
Nov. 17Arizona*Salt Lake City
Nov. 23 (Fri.)at Colorado* Boulder, Colo.
*Pac-12 Game

The “battle of the blood brothers” has taken some time off and, in that time, Utah State has markedly improved. Without running back Robert Turbin, who is leaving for the NFL, the Utes should be able to take care of the Aggies. Don’t be surprised if Utah State gives the Utes a good game though.

From there, the Utes go home to take on BYU in Week 3. Both teams look very different than the two teams that played last September, but expect the Utes to be favored in this game by 7-10 points.

Then the road gets really tough, literally.

The Utes travel to Arizona State for their first conference game of the season. A new coach for the Sun Devils might mean that they are still getting their feet under themselves in September, which is good news for Utah.

After a bye in Week 5, the Utes welcome USC to Salt Lake City on Thursday, Oct. 4, in prime time on national TV. Advantage USC in that game, but if the Utes are going to beat the Trojans, they get them in the best possible situation at the best possible time. Whittingham is 12-2 coming off byes or in bowl games in his career. When Whittingham has time to prepare for an opponent, he usually does well.

Also, if the Utes are going to upset a team like USC, earlier in the year is the best time to do it. The Utes should have just enough games played to be in the swing of things and they shouldn’t have played too many to be banged up by the time USC rolls into town.

That said, I don’t think it’s going to happen for the Utes. USC is just too talented and has too many weapons. However, if it were going to happen, the scheduling gods have set things up perfectly for Utah.

The USC game will be the first of eight Pac-12 games in eight weeks for the Utes. After USC, the Utes will travel to UCLA and Oregon State, followed by back-to-back home games against Cal and Washington State. Then the Utes finish the season at Washington, at home against Arizona and at Colorado.

Overall, the schedule sets up nicely for the Utes. Again, they don’t have to play Stanford or Oregon and they get USC early and at home. Other than the obvious game against the Trojans, the toughest games on the schedule will probably be at Arizona State on Sept. 22, at home against Cal on Oct. 27, and at Washington on Nov. 10.

Predictions

In conclusion to our Utah Football Focus series, the Utes’ 2012 season looks very promising. The injury-plagued 2011 was over-hyped by Ute fans and, as I’ve said, a rebuilding/reloading year.

Once again, the Utes will more than likely not be smelling roses next New Year's Day, but if it were going to happen in the near future, 2012 would be the year. They will be senior-laden with a lot of experience, most likely including a healthy and skilled quarterback. The schedule sets up what could be a perfect storm. I don’t think it would be out of the question to see the Utes in the conference title game. In Thursday's article, I gave my Ridiculously Early Pac-12 Power Rankings. Today, I’ll finish the series with my Ridiculously Early 2012 Predictions.

I see the Utes finishing either 10-3 or 9-4 with a bowl win. If someone forced me to choose between the two, I would probably go with 10-3. With USC eligible for the postseason in 2012, the Holiday Bowl or the Sun Bowl and maybe the Alamo Bowl would be the likely destination for the Utes with that finish. A 10-2 regular season would be tremendous and could put the Utes in the Pac-12 title game, a 9-3 record would be a great season, an 8-4 record would respectable and another 7-5 record would probably be a disappointment.

Let the countdown begin.

Trevor Amicone is the sports director at 88.1 Weber FM "Ogden's Radio Station" and host of the sports talk radio show, "Fully Loaded Sports with Trevor Amicone." Follow his very entertaining Twitter feed at @TrevorAmicone.

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