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SALT LAKE CITY — Utah's overall business conditions index for December remained above growth neutral 50.0, climbing to a solid 59.4. Components of the index were new orders at 59.2, production or sales at 62.8, delivery lead time at 52.5, inventories at 63.8 and employment at 58.7.
“Durable goods producers, especially those dependent on exports, outperformed non-durable goods manufacturers," said Ernie Goss, director of the Goss Institute for Economic Research at Creighton University. "Healthy manufacturing growth for 2011 pushed overall Utah job growth higher. I expect this trend to continue into 2012.”
Overall business conditions index, 59.4.
- New orders, 59.2
- Production or sales, 62.8
- Delivery lead time, 52.5
- Inventories, 63.8
- Employment, 58.7
For the 26th straight month, the overall index for the Mountain States region, a leading economic indicator for the three-state area of Colorado, Utah and Wyoming, advanced above growth neutral. The national index has risen above growth neutral for 27 consecutive months, but has remained lower than the regional index.
The gap between the results of the two surveys has widened, primarily as a result of Mountain States’ growth tied to the region’s large energy sector, exports and agriculture, the report stated.
The Business Conditions Index advanced to 60.2 from November’s 56.8 and 57.3 in October. The overall index is a mathematical average of indices for new orders, production or sales, employment, inventories and delivery lead time.
“Mountain States regional growth has significantly exceeded that of the national economy over the past several months," Goss said.
Surveys of supply managers in the region and in the U.S. indicate that that difference in terms of job and gross domestic product growth will expand in the first half of 2012. Firms tied to energy and international markets continue to report healthy growth, Goss said.
The Goss Institute conducts the monthly survey for Supply Management Institutes in the three states that comprise the Mountain States region.
On the jobs front, the December employment index expanded to 58.7 from November’s 57.4.
“In the first half of 2011, the region added jobs at an annualized pace of 2.1 percent," Goss said. "The region will add more than 27,000 jobs for the first six months of the year leaving the region off more than 116,000 jobs since the beginning of the recession.”
The regional report uses the same methodology as the national survey. The overall index ranges between 0 and 100. An index greater than 50 indicates an expansionary economy over the course of the next three to six months.
The Creighton Economic Forecasting Group has conducted the monthly survey of supply managers in Colorado, Utah and Wyoming since 1994 to produce leading economic indicators of the Mountain States region.
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