Truth test: free jewelry for snow?

PROVO -- A Provo jewelry company is offering free jewelry for a New Year's Eve snowstorm, but how likely is a storm to hit at the ideal time?

Goldsmith Co. Jewelers announced Nov. 30 that the company would refund any in-store purchases made between Nov. 28 and Dec. 24, assuming snowfall hits four inches between 8 p.m. New Year's Eve and 2 a.m. New Year's Day.

In the years the company has participated in the promotion, the snowfall has been inadequate, but barely, according to store owner Will Feller. He said the snowfall typically reaches four inches a day or even just a few hours late.

The promotion, dubbed "Pray for Snow," is about having fun, not increasing sales, according to store-owner Will Feller.

"It's been tradition for five or six years now," he said. "It's wonderful; it's a lot of fun every year. There is probably a sales increase, but that's not what we're going for."

Part of the fun is the atmosphere around the store, according to Feller. Every year, truckloads of snow are brought in from nearby Provo Canyon, and employees work much of the night to turn the store into a winter wonderland. The added snow does not affect the totals for the night because Dopplar radar is used to measure the snowfall.

The problem with Dopplar radar, though, is that it is not always precise, according to KSL meteorologist Len Randolph.

"The radar looks at the amount of water that is in the atmosphere; from there, you can extrapolate how much snow may fall," Randolph said. "It's not entirely accurate, though -- it's an estimate, not a measurement."

"They could more accurately measure the snowfall by putting a measuring stick in the ground at 8 p.m. and measuring the difference at 2 a.m."

If four inches are measured, Goldsmith's insurance will cover the cost of the refunds, and Feller said he would like to give away $500,000 worth of jewelry. The question is whether customers should expect four inches of snow to fall within the six-hour window mandated by the terms and conditions set forth by the company.

In the time Goldsmith's has been doing the promotion, it has snowed a measurable amount on either New Year's Eve or New Year's Day once: Dec. 31, 2009, recorded a half-inch. New Year's Day 2006 and 2007 both saw trace amounts of snow.

More often, Provo has seen heavy snow in the days before New Year's Eve: since 2005, measurable snow has fallen in a 24-hour period just days before the measurement was to take place. The only storm that would have reached the four-inch requirement hit Provo Dec. 29, 2010 and unloaded 5.98 inches of snow in a 24-hour period.

"A lot of times we see snow at this time of year," Randolph said. "We have had some rip-snortin' snowstorms hit: wind, snow, cold, the whole thing. But those measurements are for 24-hour periods."

Seeing four inches of snow within a six-hour window is less likely, according to Randolph.

"Snow would have to fall at a rate of three-quarters of an inch an hour, which is moderate, not heavy," he said. "But to have that go for six hours - that's unlikely. That doesn't happen often."

If past experience is any indication, snow is not likely to fall on New Year's Eve. But weather is unpredictable.

"New Year's Eve is way too far out to make a prediction," Randolph said. "We don't like to go more than seven days. Even at seven days, it is more a prediction of what will happen, not a definitive statement."

"To go out three weeks, all the way to New Year's Eve -- no way are we taking that one on."

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