Newt Gingrich: The anti-Romney candidate and GOP answer?

SALT LAKE CITY -- As Republican presidential candidates gear up for a fierce month of campaigning, with the Iowa caucuses less than a month away, the immediate surge of former speaker of the House Newt Gingrich has many opponents reeling. And it appears former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has the most to lose with Gingrich's sudden rise to the top.

Gingrich, an established politician and powerful leader in the history of Congress, now leads in nearly every national poll and by nearly double in recently released Iowa poll data. A new CBS News/NY Times poll has Gingrich leading with 31 percent, followed by Romney at 17 percent and Texas congressman Ron Paul at 16 percent.

And although Gingrich's surge seems legitimate, it begs the question: How long will it last?

The Republican Party has had its fair share of front- runners in 2011, with nearly every candidate enjoying the spotlight at the top of the polls, before falling back down to earth. Only Ron Paul, Rick Santorum and Jon Huntsman have not surged to the top, despite a Republican base looking for the right anti-Romney candidate.

For Iowa caucus-goers, Gingrich is the clear favorite among Tea Partiers, Evangelicals and general conservatives, as he is championed as a true conservative and best solution to oust incumbent President Barack Obama in 2012.

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As a powerful voice in Congress, Gingrich co-authored the Contract with America, promising to end the 40-year reign by the Democrats in Congress and advance conservative ideals. Gingrich managed to get all 10 points of the contract passed in the House, but forced their passages by arm-bending and tough tactics. Nevertheless, he was praised for his conservative victories.

However, Gingrich was known for his hardball tactics and tough negotiating skills as speaker of the House, which often forced gridlock in Congress. At one point, the federal government was forced to shutdown, in part because of Gingrich's failure to work with President Bill Clinton's spending proposals.

Gingrich's hardball tactics prompted several Republican legislators to stage a coup against him, including current speaker of the House John Boehner, hoping to oust Gingrich from office. Gingrich resisted and won reelection, before resigning from Congress in 1998 after 84 allegations of ethic violations were brought against him.

Gingrich's recent rise to the top of the polls has now prompted Ron Paul to release a poignant ad against the former speaker, criticizing Gingrich for his "serial hypocrisy" and false conservative principles.

Although Romney has a lot to lose in his methodical campaign for president with Gingrich at the top, it is Ron Paul who has the most to gain, polling in a dead heat with Romney in Iowa. A fall to Gingrich's campaign could set the course for a Paul surge and eventually victory in Iowa to start off primary season.

With criticism of Gingrich's past likely to hit the front pages in days to come, will his candidacy withstand the weathering of criticism and attempts to crush his campaign? If not, it is likely Gingrich, Romney and Paul will have a tough battle in the coming months as voters cast their choice for president.

Gingrich had a rough beginning to his candidacy, with many staffers quiting on him early in the process. As a result, Gingrich will struggle to stay afloat in a long battle against Romney or Paul, who have large followings and significant war chests.

"This will probably take longer than a week or two to sort out," Romney said of the election cycle. "My expectation is that it's going to be a campaign that is going to go on for a while."

Expect Romney and Paul's campaign to flood the early-voting states with ads attacking the credibility of Gingrich's campaign, in hopes of making up ground before caucus-goers cast their votes on Jan. 3.

It is likely the attacks on Gingrich will only intensify, particularly with Romney's campaign revamping their tactics.

Is Gingrich the next flavor of the month or is his campaign here to stay?

Email: jfurlong@ksl.com

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