Friday Free-For-All

The next few days will be my final days off before I get back to work for the 2011-12 BYU Sports season. Basically, from late July through the end of the BYU Basketball season in mid-to late March, there are no vacation days (with the exception of a day or two around Christmas, if I'm lucky), so the middle of July usually represents my final fling, as far as time off goes.

As such, before I vacate the premises for a short time, here is an end-of-the week clearinghouse of scattered BYU Football/Basketball musings, in no particular order.

*******

I know Notre Dame is Notre Dame, but if anyone in South Bend was taking note this past week, the Irish powers- that-be had to be impressed with what newly-independent brother BYU pulled off during its Football Media Day.

As a long-time independent with a national broadcast partner, high-level BCS access and all the star power it could want, Notre Dame has no need to go out and make a national splash (as was BYU's intention), but even ND would be hard-pressed to put together an event as impressive as the one BYU organized and executed.

First of all, Notre Dame doesn't have a broadcast facility like the one BYU was able to show off on Tuesday. For that matter, no other school in the country and precious few national TV networks can boast a facility comparable to the new BYU Broadcasting building.

BYU's ability to partner its footbal independence with a production and distribution powerhouse such as BYUtv, combined with its ESPN association, and national satellite radio presence via BYU Radio on SiriusXM (which wil carry the KSL Radio feed of the BYU FB and BB games) automatically makes BYU a national player, akin to Notre Dame.

I am not saying that BYU carries all of the weight Notre Dame has accumulated over the decades. I am saying that BYU has quickly managed to approximate Notre Dame's naional penetration potential. If BYU can pair on-the- field excellence with its new-found exposure, becoming "Notre Dame of the West" is not an unliklely expectation. That said, BYU is not out to be anybody other than BYU, and what makes the institution unique is primarily responsible for the new opportunities now available to its athletics programs.

BYU's commitment to a mission embracing and promulgating the values and doctrines of the LDS Church make the BYU Broadcasting building necessary for reasons that go well beyond sports, but sports can be the beneficiary.

BYU's status as a faith-based institution made it an even more natural fit for membership in the West Coast Conference, an already established collection of faith- based schools.

BYU's very identity allows it to enter this new era without reservation and with the confidence born of past performance and the promise of additional future exposure.

*******

During Media Day, BYU AD Tom Holmoe said he believed BYU to be worthy of membership in a BCS conference, but that no one had invited BYU.

If it that invitation were to someday come, BYU would jump at the chance, right? Maybe, maybe not.

If BYU's football independence and WCC membership should last for at least a few years, and were BYU to experience all of the benefits it anticipates--from national prominence in the media to potential BCS bowl games or national title contention in football, to NCAA Tournament participation and national rankings in men's basketball and other sports--leaving that behind would likely require more enticement than simple membership in someone else's club.

At that point in the future, BYU would likely require a bevy of allowances and exceptions to whichever rules and regulations were to govern that BCS league; from scheduling considerations to TV broadcast restrictions, etc.

If BYU enjoys 8-10 football games on ESPN platforms on an annual basis and freedom to control its own broadcast vision via its own network, what will a BCS league be able to offer BYU, besides more money, and somewhat easier BCS bowl game access? BYU Athletics may not have all the money it wants, but it has a lot of the money it needs. As for BCS access, BYU is already in the mix as long as it achieves Top 14 status.

BYU doesn't have a Notre Dame-type waiver, but BYU has yet to miss out on a BCS game for reasons other than its own win-loss record. If BYU had a record good enough to be in the BCS at-large pool, BYU would already have played in an BCS bowl game.

Furthermore, the BCS itself may or may not be a going concern as we know it, any number of years from now. Indeed, you can find support for the notion of a new type of college football coalition, less dependent on previous league alliances, featuring the sport's biggest names--a speculative group to which BYU would certainly belong. Regardless of whether the college football landscape changes that drastically down the line, I just don't see BYU pining as intently for a BCS dance card, if all goes as planned. And wouldn't that be the ultimate irony: if after everything, a BCS league came calling, and BYU determined it was better off as a football independent?

*******

The national award watch lists are out, and BYU is well- represented, especially on the offensive line, where three of the four returning starters are up for national honors.

Tackle Matt Reynolds is on the watch lists for the Outland (best interior lineman) and Lombardi (best lineman/linebacker) Awards, while guard Braden Hansen is an Outland nominee and center Terence Brown is a candidate for the Rimingon Award (best center).

Jake Heaps is on the watch list for the Davey O'Brien Award (best QB), J.J. DiLuigi makes the grade for the Doak Walker Award (best RB) and linebacker Jameson Frazier is a Lott Trophy (best defensive player) nominee.

*******

BYU's offensive line promises to be an area of strength for the Cougars this season, with the three national award candidates mentioned above joined by returning starting right tackle Braden Brown. If all four players were to take their place at last year's positions, the only open spot would be right guard--a spot for which there are multiple candidates and personnel possibilities.

Veterans like Walter Kahaiali'i and Marco Thorson will certainly be in the mix, but so too will Houston Reynolds, who is listed as a backup to Terence Brown but could also play guard and would be right there as a candidate at RG in terms of talent level.

Then, there is the star-in-the-making in Ryker Mathews, who may have the most to say about who starts at RG. Mathews played the entire spring at LT in place of Matt Reynolds, and appears to be the heir apparent at that spot. But with both tackle positions occupied by returnig starters, and with Mathews projected to stay on the left side, it is quite possible that Mathews could be moved inside to left guard, to learn alongside Matt Reynolds. Braden Hansen, as versatile as he is talented, could be moved to right guard and provide more veteran assistance for B. Brown on that side of the line.

Redshirting Mathews and giving him four years at left tackle is also a possibility, but he may be too good to keep off the field in 2011.

However it turns out, OL coach Mark Weber has to be in kid-in-a-candy-store mode with camp only three weeks away.

*******

RB Drew Phillips remains an enigma. Since coming out of high school in Alabama as a football/track speedster, the 2010 signee has been: delayed by eligibility issues last summer, injured in camp, redshirted in 2010, hit-and-miss in spring of 2011, and now currently in limbo while taking care of academic issues, with his participation in 2011 very much in doubt.

While undersized for a BYU back, Phillips' speed makes him an intriguing option in the slot and return game; whether he will ever get to showcase that potential at BYU remains a big question mark.

*******

I hope you got a chance to listen to the archived audio from our coverage of Media Day here on "Cougar Tracks." Among the players we interviewed that day was LB Jordan Pendleton. He said all the right things about coming back from multiple injuries and surgeries, but you could tell in his voice there is still the uncertainty that comes with lengthy recoveries and inactivity.

Pendleton is among the most fiercely aggressive athletes I have ever watched, and packed full of athletic skill, but we haven't seen him full speed in a long, long time. I hope we get a glimpse a fully-leaded Pendleton in camp, but I'm not getting my hopes up too soon.

*******

First games with new offensive coordinators are sometimes successful, but often a struggle. Robert Anae's first game as BYU OC resulted in a three-point outing at home versus Boston College in 2005. In time, Anae's offense would become one of the most prolific in college football, but the start was a rocky one.

Brandon Doman's first game as BYU OC will come on the road in SEC country, but he is unlikely to have as rough a start as Anae's debut v. BC.

Anae was in his first year in the BYU program, coming in after serving as an offensive line coach, coaching players he did not know, under a head coach he had never worked with. Doman is in his seventh year on the BYU staff, having served as the QB coach, working with the players he knows, under the head coach who hired him seven years ago.

Doman was as close as he could be to a play-caller without having called plays, working alongside Anae and with the on-field signal callers on a day-to-day basis. The offense is one with which Doman is intimately familiar, and his helping hands are among the most qualified in the game, as Lance Reynolds is sure to be Doman's eye-in-the- sky as a press box headset mate.

The novelty and new approaches that Doman wil bring to the offense can only help BYU, as more frequent huddles will assist in both organization and motivation, while a more steady diet of pro sets will bring unpredictability. When you add in Doman's own up-tempo personality and agressive mindset, BYU will certainly present a new take on an established and historically productive offense.

It is my belief that Doman and the BYU offense are going to hit the ground running (while throwing) at Ole Miss on September 3rd.

*******

Interestingly, BYU's first three opponents are going to be breaking in new offensive coordinators who are also new to their schools this year. Ole Miss's David Lee is coming in after coaching the QBs with the Miami Dolphins. Texas' Bryan Harsin comes from Boise State and will serve as a co-coordinator with Major Applewhite. Utah's Norm Chow was most recently at UCLA.

*******

I do a fair share of research and statistical work between and during seasons, and I am latching on to something I may end up calling the "85% Rule." In a 13-game season, to win 11 games is pretty impressive. In fact, BYU has won 11 games in three of Bronco Mendenhall's six seasons. 11 wins in 13 games is a win rate of 84.6%. So, if doing a certain something correlates with a win percentage of 85% or higher, I tend to put more weight on those certain somethings.

Here, now is a list of a few statistical in-game plateaus that correspond with a win rate of 85% or higher, in the Bronco Mendenhall era only. This list is not comprehensive (there are many other factors that could be researched), but this hits a few of the high points:

Rushing for 100+ yards: 86.0%

Rushing for 150+ yards: 88.6%

Rushing for 200+ yards: 90.9%

Rushing for 100+ yards/Passing for 200+ yards: 87.5%

Rushing for 100+ yards/Passing for 250+ yards: 86.8%

Rushing for 150+ yards/Passing for 200+ yards: 89.7%

Rushing for 150+ yards/Passing for 250+ yards: 90.0%

Rushing for 150+ yards/Passing for 300+ yards: 90.9%

Rushing for 200+ yards/Passing for 200+ yards: 93.4%

Rushing for 200+ yards/Passing for 250+ yards: 100%

Rushing for 200+ yards/Passing for 300+ yards: 100%

Allow 100 rushing yards or fewer: 87.1%

--

Positive turnover margin: 91.2%

Zero turnovers: 90.0%

Positive average starting field position: 87.2%

Leading or tied at halftime: 91.2%

Leading or tied after three quarters: 96.3%

Leading by 14+ pts at halftime: 100%

Scoring TD on first possession: 88.9%

Scoring in every quarter: 91.2%

Scoring 21+ pts: 86.7% (scoring 24+ pts: 89.3%)

Allowing 24 pts or fewer: 92.5% (allowing 21 pts or fewer: 93.2%)

*******

The BYU Basketball team continues pick-up game workouts in preparation for its trip to Greece. Coaches will join the squad in NCAA-sanctioned practices on August 1st, with the team leaving for its five-game tour on August 15th.

Matt Carlino (eligibility) and Chris Collinsworth (knee) will travel to but not play in Greece, while Brandon Davies (not enrolled) will yet to have re-joined the program. As it stands, the list of available players looks like this:

Nick Martineau

Craig Cusick (walk-on PG)

Anson Winder

Damarcus Harrison

Brock Zylstra

Charles Abouo

Stephen Rogers

Noah Hartsock

Josh Sharp

*the overseas trip playing status of Michael Boswell (RM walk-on who redshirted during 2008-09 season) has yet to be finalized.

*******

I Tweeted earlier this week about spending some time with Stephen Rogers and noting that he has put on some weight and looks good; his floor play has also made an impression on those who have watched him. I think his shot-making ability is going to come to the forefront this season, and those in the know say he is primed for a big season.

The word I get from the guys who have played with Damarcus Harrison this summer: "very athletic."

*******

There's been a lot of talk lately about highly-sought after Chicago HS sensation Jabari Parker, an LDS player that BYU offered a couple of years ago. A MaxPreps article this week indicated BYU was still on Parker's radar, even though he is being targeted by much higher- profile programs.

I have been thinking about what a player like Parker or any other highly-ranked LDS player might be thinking about BYU, as it relates to the ability to either: compete for a national championship, receive national exposure, or get drafted in the NBA, and I'm having a tough time coming up with too many reasons why BYU shouldn't at least be in the mix with every player they seriously want--even the blue- chippers.

Jimmer Fredette's story is the most recent and visible example of how a BYU athlete can achieve all the fame and adulation of a player at the most prestigious of programs, but remember that Jimmer achieved everything he did without ever playing a single game on an ESPN Network during his sensational senior season.

Moving forward, BYU will be more of a fixture on ESPN by virtue of its WCC ties, and conference games with Gonzaga and St. Mary's will have more of a "showdown" feel to them, and that will be demonstrated by the attention ESPN gives to those games. If you want to be seen on national TV (and I am not forgetting all of the games to be seen on BYUtv), BYU will give players a phenomenal chance for that kind of play.

BYU has now had three NBA Draft picks in the last eight seasons, including two top ten draft picks. If you can play in the NBA, the league will find you--whether at BYU or somewhere else.

The Butler Bulldogs may be among BYU's strongest allies in the pursuit of top-notch LDS talent. By playing in back- to-back national title games, Butler proved that come tournament time, it almost doesn't matter which conference you call home. If you've got a great coach with a singular player or two and strong all-around talent, you can make a run from almost anywhere. Even BYU.

*******