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PROVO -- If you're a BYU fan that likes to look at stats and variables, you'll notice the numbers don't add up in the Cougars' favor against Florida State.
Simply put, BYU will be fighting a battle against the odds as it travels to the Sunshine State.
In four tries, BYU has never won a football game in the state of Florida, nor has it ever beaten Florida State with the most recent loss last season against an unranked Florida State team.
BYU also has not defeated an ACC team since 2003. That year the Cougars celebrated a win in Provo against Georgia Tech. But the last time the Cougars defeated an ACC team away from LaVell Edwards Stadium was ten years ago, a 38-35 win against Virginia.
So should fans be ready for another let down this weekend or have an optimistic outlook for the game?
Like the Cougars, Florida State is in the midst of a youth movement. The Seminoles will be starting a number of freshmen on offense and defense, meaning there is a good number of players still learning their roles and positions. Six true freshmen were named starters at the beginning of the season to play in week one's game against Samford.
However, Florida State is led by senior quarterback Christian Ponder, who is considered by many as one of the top quarterbacks playing in college football. In 2009 Ponder threw for two touchdowns and 195 yards on 21-for-26 passing in the Seminoles 54-28 win against BYU. He also ran for 77 yards on 11 carries. He struggled against Oklahoma, but most college football expert consider that an aberration, not the norm.
BYU, meanwhile, lost their senior signal-caller after last season and is feeling its way through a shaky two-quarterback system. Quarterback Riley Nelson played in last year's game against Florida State attempting and completing three passes in the fourth quarter for 59 yards. One of those passes was a 29-yard touchdown strike to running back JJ Di Luigi, who is looking to bounce back this game after last week's mishaps. Despite running for 103 yards, DiLuigi fumbled the ball twice- losing one.
Both Nelson, a junior, and freshman Jake Heaps looked confident and poised against Washington, but both struggled with their execution and effectiveness against Air Force leaving many to wonder if the two-quarterback system is the right approach.
BYU Head Coach Bronco Mendenhall even admitted they will "probably move away from 'every other series mode' and reps might become more situational."
In their first loss of the season last week, Oklahoma quarterback Landry Jones threw for 380 yards and four touchdowns against the FSU defense. This will be a scheme that BYU will surely try to emulate.
"If you looked at the Air Force game in particular, we ran the ball effectively but had very little success throwing the football," Head Coach Bronco Mendenhall said. "We need to throw the ball more effectively than we currently are. The Washington game was more representative of the balance I think we're hoping to get. In order to beat FSU it'll have to be more toward the first plan than the second."
