Estimated read time: 8-9 minutes
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As the MLS regular season winds down and teams look ahead to what promises to be a compelling chase for the MLS Cup, here is a team-by-team look at how the Western Conference postseason contenders are shaping up:
In with a Yellow Brick Road in front of them
L.A. Galaxy: 58 points, 5 games left, +21 goal differential
It really is their Cup to lose. L.A. was already one of the best teams this season when it added Irish star striker Robbie Keane in a move to ensure postseason success. L.A. is everything New York is not — a team with Designated Players that has chemistry. Down the stretch, the Galaxy have tough road tests against Columbus and New York, both teams desperate for points for the postseason. Their biggest game will be on October 1 when they host RSL. The winner of that game will most likely take home the Supporters' Shield. L.A. hasn't lost at home all season, and they have only lost three times on the road. L.A. will know if it can get to the MLS Cup final it will have a great chance to win it, as this year's final will be in L.A. The best news is that unless Real Salt Lake catches them, the Galaxy will face either reeling Dallas, a Colorado team that has lost five in a row and has never beaten L.A., or an Eastern Conference foe that hasn't beaten L.A. this year. It is a clear path for the Galaxy with only Real Salt Lake seemingly standing in their way.
Go ahead and clear your calender
Real Salt Lake: 51 points, 6 games left, +18 goal differential
Without question RSL is the hottest team in MLS right now, sporting the first five-game win streak in the league this season. Just in time too, as momentum is huge going into the playoffs (see Colorado last year and RSL in 2009). A month ago Real was just hoping to make the playoffs but now it is closing in on L.A. and the Supporters' Shield. If RSL can somehow catch L.A. it would guarantee home-field advantage throughout the postseason. The bad news for RSL is that of its six games left, four of them are against teams looking to secure playoff spots. So it won't be easy for RSL to pick up all the points it will need to have a chance of catching the Galaxy. The good news is that RSL still has the best pairing of central defenders in MLS (Nat Borchers and Jamison Olave), right in front of arguably the best 'keeper as well (Nick Rimando). The really good news is that L.A., Dallas and Seattle all have a busy Champions League schedule, where RSL can rest a little before the playoffs. The best news is that playmaker Javier Morales will be rejoining the team soon.
Seattle Sounders: 51 points, 5 games left, +15 goal differential.
The Sounders sit in third in the West right behind RSL, who is ahead of them based on goal differential. While Seattle doesn't have the games in hand to catch L.A. for the Supporters' Shield unless L.A. drops lots of points, it still is ultimately a threat to win the MLS Cup. The good news for them is that their remaining schedule only has one game agains a playoff contender, and it's at home against the Philadelphia Union. That could be all the footing they need to sneak up on Salt Lake and L.A. and grab the Supporters' Shield and home-field advantage in the playoffs. The bad news is that if they do face LA or Salt Lake at home, those teams will feel like they know how to beat the Sounders in Seattle. The really bad news is that MVP candidate Mauro Rosales is out with an injury to his MCL — not good for a team that is traveling 9000-plus miles for Champions League fixtures on top of the end of the MLS regular season.
Will be surprising if they're not there
FC Dallas: 46 points, 5 games left, +4 goal differential
The Hoops are looking for a return trip to the MLS Cup, and this time, they are looking to win it all. To do that they will be desperately trying to slot themselves in the Eastern bracket in the postseason and avoid L.A. as long as possible, as Dallas hasn't beaten L.A. this year and only once in its last five tries. The Hoops do have games in hand on most of the teams chasing them and a five-point cushion to boot. Additional good news is that their last three home games are against very beatable teams. The really good news is that their Champions League travel comes to an end soon, which clearly has been affecting their play. And they have Brek Shea (who gets my reluctant vote for league MVP). The bad news is they have only won once in their last five MLS games, and they needed to climb out of a two-goal deficit in Kansas City just to do that. That is four points in five games, not good for a team that really needs to pull it together for the post season.
Houston, we have a problem
Colorado Rapids: 41 points, 4 games left, +1 goal differential
The Rapids might be in the worst shape of any team that is currently in the playoffs, including Houston. With only four games left there is just not enough time for them to drop any points. The only glimmer of hope the defending champions have is that they in the playoffs right now. Two of their last four games are against two of the teams ahead of them in the West; Dallas and Salt Lake. If they give up points to both those teams, the Rapids won't be around to try and defend their title. They simply cannot afford to drop any more points, as most of the teams that are chasing them have games in hand. The only good news for Colorado is that they have a two-week break between Dallas and Salt Lake. (Side Note: This a luxury RSL doesn't have thanks to Vancouver rescheduling their home match with Salt Lake due to stadium issues. Not much that can be done about that now.) The bad news for Colorado is that they haven't won in MLS in over a month, and they are currently riding a five-game losing streak in all competitions. Not good form for a team that can't afford to lose any points.
Too little too late
Portland Timbers: 37 points, 5 games left, -5 goal differential
The Rose City darlings are looking to make the playoffs in only their first year in MLS. The Timbers have been hovering just outside the playoff zone for most of the season, and have gained 11 points in their last five games. Now they find themselves in the final playoff spot, thanks in large part to a defense that finally caught up to speed with their offense, only allowing two goals in their last five matches. The bad news is they hit the road for four of their last five matches, where they have only won once. The really bad news is the Timbers are in the middle of the mixer where eight teams are only separated by six points, making the wild card race about as predictable as a day at the track. The good news for the Timbers is that, for them, it's about taking points away from others as much as it is about gaining points for themselves. Three of their last five opponents are teams that are also vying for wild card spots as well; D.C. United, New York Red Bulls, and the Philadelphia Union. If they can get six points from those three games, they might be able to hang on to a wild card berth.. Right now the Timber army supporters should be pulling for Sporting Kansas City as much as they do for their own team.
Would take a miracle
Chivas USA: 32 points, 4 games left, -2 goal differential.
There's hardly any good news for the Goats. Statistically they aren't out of it, but with only four games left it's not looking good. The only good news is that their last four games are at the Home Depot Center. The bad news is that they have to win all those games to even come close — draws are meaningless for them. The really bad news is that three of their remaining opponents are in or out of the postseason, meaning they must rely on others to make it. The worst news? One of those games is against L.A..
How the West will be won
On October 1 L.A. will draw with Salt Lake, ensuring the Galaxy win the Supporters' Shield and first in the West. Salt Lake will take second and have a first-round matchup with Seattle for what should be the matchup of the postseason. FC Dallas has too much of a lead to not make the playoffs where it will have a play-in game against Portland. Colorado barely hangs on to face Columbus.
Despite having their final four games at home, Chivas USA has too much ground to cover.
Andrew Reeves has an enormous passion for soccer and a love of all sports. Follow him on Twitter @Andrew_J_Reeves.
