Renowned political scientist on the state of the world: 'Fraught, volatile, uncertain'

SALT LAKE CITY — American political scientist Ian Bremmer didn't equivocate after his friend, former Utah Sen. Mitt Romney, introduced him at the opening of the Zions Bank/World Trade Center Utah Crossroads of the World summit Wednesday.

"You have me kicking off this conference and talking about the geopolitical environment because, apparently, you don't want to start on a high note," Bremmer said to a packed audience at the Zions Bancorporation Technology Center in Midvale. "And I apologize for that in advance, but what Mitt will tell you is that's not going to stop me from telling you what I think is going on."

Bremmer is the president and founder of global research and advisory firm Eurasia Group and the author of numerous books, including The New York Times bestsellers "Us vs. Them: The Failure of Globalism," which examines the rise of populism across the world, and his latest book, "The Power of Crisis: How Three Threats — and Our Response — Will Change the World."

Bremmer offered his views on a broad swath of current international issues and crises and the circumstances that led to a geopolitical environment that he characterized as "so fraught, so volatile and so uncertain right now."

What got us into this mess?

Bremmer pointed to a trifecta of issues that set the table for the current global turbulence:

• After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia failed to integrate into the West. "You can blame us, you can blame them, but the point is, it didn't happen," Bremmer said. And after the country's failure to become part of things like the "G7+1," NATO expansion and the EU, "they're angry about it and they blame us."
• China integrated into the global economy on the presumption that as the country became wealthier and more powerful, which it certainly is today, would essentially become American. "Turns out, they are still Chinese," Bremmer said. "And the U.S. and Europe and other allies are uncomfortable with the fact that the second largest and second most powerful country in the world is increasingly a consolidated authoritarian state around Xi Jinping."
• And while those other things were going on, many Americans increasingly believed that the U.S. precepts of global leadership benefited them. Whether it was collective security and a comparative lack of burden-sharing with allies, creating and promoting the architecture of global free trade, or maintaining "comparatively open borders and bringing lots of people from the rest of the world into the country, both legal and sometimes not legal," each of those elements played a role, Bremmer said.

"All of those things created a reaction against U.S. global leadership as defined during and after the Cold War," he said. "You will notice I did not mention Donald Trump. Why not? Because he's not the cause of these things, he's symptomatic."

Iran war leads to a regional fracture

Bremmer noted the ongoing Iran war and continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz are having serious impacts on the global economy, but he called out the United Arab Emirates' unilateral exit from OPEC last week as the "single most consequential thing that has happened, geopolitically, since the (start of the) war."

"It reflects something bigger, which is the Gulf and the Middle East in general, is splitting in two," Bremmer said.

Bremmer said the UAE now needs to find a way to create more stability and, to that end, would not be happy if the Iran war came to a close. He suggested that if the war does end, the UAE would continue military strikes on Iran as "nuclear and ballistic missile dangers emerge."

And now clear of OPEC-related production limits, Bremmer expects the UAE will "produce as much oil as humanly possible" as part of an evolution away from dependence on petroleum-based revenues.

"They want to move away from oil," Bremmer said of the UAE. "And they want to diversify toward cheaper, post-carbon energy."

What China wants out of upcoming Trump meeting

Bremmer also previewed Trump's planned meeting next week in Beijing with Xi. Trump will be greeted with military parades and a display of pomp and circumstance, Bremmer said, aiming to make the U.S. president "feel great about being in China." And it's an approach Bremmer believes is aiming for a very specific outcome.

"The Chinese do not want a war over Taiwan," Bremmer said. "What they want the U.S. president to say is that we are not supporting independence of Taiwan."

Other speakers on Wednesday at the Crossroads of the World summit included Zions Bancorporation Chairman and CEO Harris Simmons; numerous business leaders, including Lucy Knight Andre, CEO of Stadler Signaling and chief of staff for Stadler U.S., which has its North American headquarters in Salt Lake City; Peter Huntsman, president and CEO of Huntsman Corp.; and former Arizona Sen. and U.S. Ambassador to Turkiye Jeff Flake. The summit continues Thursday with presentations and an awards ceremony at Grand America.

Related topics