Estimated read time: 5-6 minutes
- Southern Texas faces rare 'high risk' flooding, prompting dozens of water rescues.
- 10+ inches of rain expected, with significant flash flooding forecast through Wednesday.
- Gov. Abbott declares disaster for 59 counties; flood threat persists through Thursday.
ATLANTA — Parts of southern Texas are under back-to-back days of a rare "high risk" of flooding rain, spurring dozens of water rescues, as more rounds of slow-moving storms set off life-threatening and potentially catastrophic floods.
The Level 4 of 4 risk areas include parts of the western Hill Country, the Edwards Plateau and the Rio Grande Valley near the U.S.-Mexico border, according to the Weather Prediction Center. Wednesday's high-risk area is slightly more expansive than Tuesday's.
"Significant to locally catastrophic flash flooding" is forecasted Tuesday into Wednesday, the center said. An additional 10 or more inches of rain could fall in some locations into Wednesday morning, with storms bringing rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour, and even more rain is possible in the region through the end of the week.
Some of these areas already saw flooding on roads, and water rescues Tuesday after 6 to 12 inches of rain fell overnight into Tuesday morning.
This is the first time since April 2025 that the WPC has issued high risks on back-to-back days. It's hard to overstate just how significant these high-risk flooding events are. They are issued on fewer than 4% of days per year on average but are responsible for more than 80% of all flood-related damage and 36% of all flood-related deaths, WPC research shows.
Flooding is likely on roads and in urban areas, and some homes could be inundated, the WPC warned. Creeks, streams and rivers will also rise, with some possibly overflowing their banks. Moderate to major flooding could develop on some rivers.
Much of the same region will be at risk of additional significant flooding through Thursday. Places as far east as the Texas coast, including Houston, could see at least localized flooding.
Flood watches have been issued for over six million people in central and southwest Texas, including Austin, Del Rio, San Angelo and San Antonio.
Extreme rainfall events like this are becoming more common as planet-warming pollution pushes temperatures higher because warmer air holds more moisture. Weather systems can then wring that moisture out like a water-laden sponge, yielding heavy and often highly localized downpours.
Water rescues and flooded roads
Flash flooding set off rescue efforts across Uvalde County in South Texas Tuesday, with at least 45 people having to be pulled from the floodwaters.
Numerous roads are closed across Uvalde County, and the Uvalde Police Department said it conducted at least 24 water rescues across the county, the department told CNN Tuesday afternoon. Those who were rescued were taken to a temporary shelter at the William R. Mitchell Uvalde County Fairplex, which is also open to others who had to evacuate.
The Texas Department of Public Safety said it rescued 12 people and five pets, and the Texas Game Wardens reported nine people rescued. Another water rescue was also reported earlier near the city of Sabinal, according to the Uvalde Volunteer Fire Department.
All the dams in Uvalde County are currently working, the Uvalde Police Department said, while asking residents to "stay vigilant" as high water levels near rivers, creeks and drainage areas are expected to continue overnight.
In neighboring Medina County, crews conducted multiple water rescues late Monday into the overnight hours after vehicles drove into high water and were swept off the road, county Emergency Management Coordinator and Fire Marshal Mark Chadwick told CNN.
Roughly 18 roads in the county, which is just west of the San Antonio area, are impassable due to water, and one bridge has been submerged, he said.
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott issued a disaster declaration for 59 counties on Tuesday to free up state resources, citing flash flooding and rainfall that "poses a threat of imminent disaster, including widespread and severe property damage, injury or loss of life."
The threat in the Hill Country comes just over a year since the devastating Fourth of July floods that killed more than 130 people there, including 25 girls and two teenage counselors at Camp Mystic.
The region is prone to flooding because of steep slopes, shallow soils and exposed bedrock that repel heavy rain instead of allowing it to soak into the ground.
The forecast
Fueling this heavy rain threat is abundant Gulf moisture that's clashing with a stalled front and a pocket of energy in the upper atmosphere. It's a notorious recipe for generating slow-moving clusters of storms that can unleash rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour.
A Level 3 of 4 risk surrounds the high flash flooding risk and extends as far east as the San Antonio metro area through Wednesday. A Level 2 of 4 risk is in place eastward to Houston.
The risk of significant flash flooding will continue on Thursday, but mainly over southwest Texas, including from Del Rio to Midland and San Angelo.
Parts of central and southwest Texas will see several inches of additional rain through the end of the week, but totals will vary depending on where the heavier downpours persist.
Del Rio, Texas, could see over 6 inches, which is about what the city typically sees from June to August. Totals around 10 inches would be half its average yearly rainfall in just a few days.
The flood threat could finally ease by Friday or Saturday, but some lingering pockets of showers and storms will remain possible, especially in West Texas.
