LOGAN — Researchers at Utah State University said the number of days we see over 80 degrees can serve as a strong indicator of how our fire season will be.
Dr. Jim Lutz, a professor of forest science, said he and his team looked at a number of different indicators from 1984 to 2021 — comparing that data to 1,500 wildfires during the same period.
"And what we found was the most predictive was the number of days over 80 F," Lutz explained. "And the reason that is important is because hot days dry out the fuel, make it more likely that fuel might ignite and make it more likely that fires will spread."
Lutz added that they wanted specifically to find easy-to-follow indicators that would apply specifically to Utah. And while other factors could impact the fire season, the days over 80 degrees more consistently predicted what was to come.
"It could rain to wet down the fuels. But we found that that wasn't really important for us," Lutz said. "Because in the summer in Utah, it doesn't really rain that much."
Researchers also noticed what looks like an upward trend when it comes to the number of fires and intensity in Utah, which, if continued, could indicate major increases in land burned by 2050 — with up to 60% more forested areas burned and up to 130% in shrub and rangelands.
"If we're seeing more 80-degree days from year to year, we just need to plan on more activity," Lutz said. "The sky is not falling here. You know, we can manage this, but it's pretty certain that the risk is increasing."
