- Former FBI agent Greg Rogers reviewed surveillance video in the Nancy Guthrie case on Wednesday.
- Rogers identified several mistakes by the suspect, suggesting inexperience in the kidnapping.
- The Pima County Sheriff's Department has received over 18,000 tips since Guthrie disappeared on Feb. 1.
SALT LAKE CITY — A retired FBI agent said new surveillance images from the home of Nancy Guthrie, the missing mother of "Today" show anchor Savannah Guthrie, suggest the person who abducted her may have been an inexperienced kidnapper.
Greg Rogers, a former FBI agent who spent years analyzing surveillance footage, reviewed the doorbell camera video released Tuesday.
He described what he saw on the porch of Guthrie's Tucson home as "disturbing" and filled with errors that point to an amateur.
"He just made some mistakes that were hard to imagine someone that was involved in this case would make," Rogers said.
One example, he said, was the masked man's failed attempt to cover the camera using plants on the porch.
"All he needed to bring was some duct tape or a can of spray paint, and you can defeat that camera in a second," he said.
Rogers also pointed to what he called "tactically inept" handling of a firearm and reflective strips on the suspect's backpack — something that would attract attention rather than conceal it.
Thousands of tips flood investigators
The Pima County Sheriff's Department stated it has received about 18,000 calls since Guthrie disappeared on Feb. 1. More than 4,000 of those came within the past day after the FBI released the surveillance images.
One of those tips appears to have led investigators to briefly detain and question a delivery driver Tuesday night. The man told reporters afterward he had no connection to the case and had never heard of Guthrie. He was released.
Rogers believes the tip was likely a well‑intentioned mistake.
"It's purely a guess on my part, but a pretty educated guess, that someone called the tip line and gave information indicating why they believed he was involved that led law enforcement to decide when they're prioritizing those tips, 'We got to check this one out,'" he said.
He said it's common for investigators to pursue leads that ultimately turn out to be incorrect. In his experience, he estimates about 90% of tipsters are genuinely trying to help.
FBI using advanced technology
Rogers said the FBI is likely using facial‑recognition technology to generate potential matches.
"They're doing very high‑tech resolution of those pictures, getting measurements and checking databases," he said. "The width of the bridge of your nose, distance between ears, hairline — all sorts of things."
He also noted that it was "remarkable" the FBI was able to recover the security footage at all. Investigators worked with Google to retrieve previously inaccessible images.
No sign of communication with a kidnapper
Rogers said the decision to publicly release the surveillance video indicates investigators and the family are likely not in contact with the person who took Nancy.
"There's some concern that, if you're actually talking to a real kidnapper, that you're not going to put those images out there," he said. "You may be in a real negotiation."
He pointed to Savannah Guthrie's emotional plea posted to Instagram Monday as further evidence that no direct communication is happening. It was a notably different tone from previous video she posted with her siblings.
"She was taken, and we don't know where," Savannah Guthrie said in the video. "And we need your help."
Rogers said videos like the ones the Guthries filmed and posted are carefully scripted.
"I think the fact alone that they're no longer talking directly to a kidnapper speaks volumes about what's going on," he said.
Search continues
The Pima County Sheriff's Department said Wednesday no news conferences or public updates are scheduled, but officials will brief the public if a significant development occurs.
Rogers emphasized that timing remains crucial as the search continues.
