Estimated read time: 4-5 minutes
- Ohio State and Michigan face off in "The Game" on Saturday.
- Ohio State, undefeated and ranked No. 1, aims to end Michigan's streak.
- Michigan, ranked 15th, seeks to disrupt Ohio State's playoff aspirations.
SALT LAKE CITY — Ohio State and Michigan meet Saturday in the 120th edition of "The Game." There are 15 Power Four rivalry trophies up for grabs this week; and while this series doesn't have any hardware, it has become the premier national rivalry in the sport.
Ohio State won 17 of 19 matchups from 2001-19 to mark the most dominant 20-year stretch the rivalry had ever seen. But after the 2020 canceled game, there was a sudden shift, and now Michigan is riding a four-year win streak — they even stunned the No. 2 Buckeyes last year as 20-point underdogs.
Ryan Day currently holds the FBS career record for highest win percentage and he won the national title last year, but he still has a Michigan problem to fix. Ohio State enters "The Game" ranked No. 1 and undefeated and looks to lock in a spot in the Big Ten title game, while 9-2 Michigan looks to crash the playoff party in
the final week.
Both FOX's "Big Noon Kickoff" and ESPN's "College GameDay" will be in Ann Arbor for this one (Saturday 10 a.m. MST, FOX).
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
3-year average (2022-24): Ohio State 83.3 (2nd of 68 Power 4) | Michigan 73.7 (7th)
2024 season: Ohio State 89.2 (1st) | Michigan 49.5 (40th)
2025 season: Ohio State 92.3 (1st) | Michigan 65.9 (15th)
My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.
In my annual season preview magazine Pick Six Previews, I selected Ohio State to finish in the top four and earn a first-round bye in the playoff. So far that has held true; they are a perfect 11-0 and have dominated each of their opponents.
In the season opener, Ohio State beat preseason No. 1 Texas 14-7, and then every game from there they have won by 18+ points (+270 yardage per game). Ohio State is a clear No. 1 in Game Grader and is attempting to repeat as national champions.
Michigan was my pick for fifth place, and that prediction hinges on this game. They lost to Oklahoma by 11 and lost to USC by 18, but they won all other games and their defensive performance against Washington was impressive. Michigan checks in at No. 15 in Game Grader.
Ohio State with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted metrics, per Pick Six Previews)
Ohio State offense: 15th of 68 Power 4 teams, 2nd passing, 20th rushing
Michigan defense: 12th of 68 Power 4 teams, 16th pass defense, 9th rush defense
Coming into the season, the only question for Ohio State's offense was at quarterback. They returned most of the offensive line that played through their playoff run, they signed a top-rated receiving tight end in Max Klare, and they had the best receiver Jeremiah Smith (plus his All-Big Ten sidekick Carnell Tate) back in Columbus.
Julian Sayin turned an uncertainty into a strength and he is currently a top Heisman contender with his nation-best QB rating and a 79% completion rate that is on pace for an FBS record. He has shown he can make every throw on the field — yes even deep shots, with extremely precise accuracy.
They will face their toughest test since that season-opener against Texas. Michigan has the 12th ranked defense and has been especially stout against the run. They have had success slowing down the Ohio State rushing attack over this four-year win streak and that will be a key again Saturday.
If they can slow or neutralize Bo Jackson and CJ Donaldson in the ground game, it gets Ohio State off-schedule and into more predictable passing spots.
In the injury department, Ohio State is monitoring the health of both Smith and Tate, and the duo did not play last week. Michigan could be without two defensive captains in safety Rod Moore (out) and linebacker Ernest Hausmann (questionable).
Michigan with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted metrics, per Pick Six Previews)
Michigan offense: 14th of 68 Power 4 teams, 46th passing, 5th rushing
Ohio State defense: 1st of 68 Power 4 teams, 5th pass defense, 8th rush defense
This side of the ball is where Ohio State separates themselves. This is the best defense in America. Even after losing coordinator Jim Knowles and eight starters, new boss Matt Patricia reloaded the Silver Bullets.
Ohio State is ranked No. 1 in almost every major statistical category — most notably points per game (7.6) and yards per game (207) — and have All-America candidates all over the place: Caden Curry and Kayden McDonald in the trenches, Sonny Styles and Arvell Reese at linebacker, and then possibly the best overall defender in America with Caleb Downs at safety.
They face a true freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood. who has struggled for most of the season — eighth in Big Ten QB rating, nine TD and five INT — but he is fresh off his best passing performance in a 45-20 win over Maryland last week.
Running back Justice Haynes is listed as "out" and fullback Max Bredeson is "doubtful," so they will need big performances from their emerging stars at receiver: Donaven McCulley and Andrew Marsh.
Game prediction
Ryan Day will solve his Michigan problem. Ohio State is the clear No. 1 team in Game Grader, No. 1 in the "last four games only" stat, and they have no discernible weaknesses.
Ohio State 27 | Michigan 14
