SALT LAKE CITY — Nebraska enters its third season with head coach Matt Rhule, and that has historically been the breakthrough season for the program-builder.
The Nebraska program is looking for a national statement win after failed tenures under Mike Riley and Scott Frost, which resulted in their worst decade of football since before World War II. They are currently riding a 27-game losing streak against ranked opponents dating back to their 2016 win over Oregon.
Their co-national champions from 1997 have had more success the past few years, with multiple Big Ten championships and even a national title in 2023. With Jim Harbaugh gone to the pros, Sherrone Moore is attempting to rebuild Michigan into contenders.
They signed the No. 1 overall quarterback last cycle in Bryce Underwood, reloaded their defense again, but Moore is serving a two-game suspension so they will have interim Biff Poggi calling the shots.
Memorial Stadium will host its NCAA-record 406th straight sell-out in a matchup of blueblood programs, with the hometown Huskers searching for a national win to spark a program revival (1:30 p.m. MDT, CBS).
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
3-year average (2022-24): Nebraska 44.0 (51st of 68 Power 4) | Michigan 73.7 (7th)
2024 season: Nebraska 54.3 (31st) | Michigan 49.5 (40th)
2025 season: Nebraska 63.2 (22nd) | Michigan 62.0 (26th)
My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.
In my annual season preview magazine Pick Six Previews, I selected Michigan to finish fifth in the Big Ten and Nebraska seventh. Michigan earned the No. 18 national ranking, with Nebraska one spot outside the top 25.
Nebraska opened with a one-score win over Cincinnati, with an interception in the end zone to seal it. They have dominated lesser foes Akron and Houston Christian by a combined 127-7 score and 1,282-335 (+947) yardage margin.
Michigan was similarly dominant against their non-AQ opponents New Mexico and Central Michigan (97-20 combined score) but fell in their first Power Four test 24-13 at Oklahoma. The teams are virtually tied in 2025 Game Grader so far.
Nebraska with the ball
Nebraska offense: 49 points/game (9th of 136 FBS), 5.0 yards/carry (44th), 9.9 yards/pass (12th)
Michigan defense: 14.7 points/game (33rd of 136 FBS), 2.6 yards/carry (17th), 5.4 yards/pass (26th)
Nebraska's passing offense has struggled for years and was completely broken in Rhule's debut season 2023. Then he signed a top quarterback in five-star Dylan Raiola, and the dividends are paying off in his sophomore season.
In the opener, it was a lot of short passing, but he took what the defense gave him. Against Akron and HCU, Raiola showed off more of the vertical and intermediate passing, and this looks like Nebraska's best passing quarterback since 2008 Joe Ganz.
Nebraska's offensive line is finally living up to expectations, but this will be by far their hardest test to date. Michigan's defensive line reloaded with Rayshaun Benny and Damon Payne, to pair with their nationally-ranked linebacker tandem of Jaishawn Barham and former Husker Ernest Hausmann.
This is a "prove-it" moment for Nebraska's line, their new-look receiver room, and Raiola himself. Michigan's defense is the more predictable unit here in mid-September.
Michigan with the ball
Michigan offense: 36.7 points/game (45th of 136 FBS), 6.1 yards/carry (15th), 7.9 yards/pass (59th)
Nebraska defense: 8 points/game (7th of 136 FBS), 4.0 yards/carry (84th), 3 yards/pass (1st)
Underwood was rattled in his first Power Four test, passing for just 142 yards on 9-of-24 passing (37%) at Oklahoma. But last week, he unveiled a new facet of his game: mobility.
Michigan put in designed quarterback runs and Underwood thrived — his 114 rushing yards were the most by a Michigan quarterback since Devin Gardner over a decade ago. That new rushing threat is in addition to the Big Ten's leading rusher Justice Haynes.
The pass game is a major question for Michigan, as Underwood is below-average in QB rating and they do not have the firepower at receiver that other Big Ten contenders feature.
Nebraska's defense has not allowed a passing touchdown yet, and they are the only defense in America to not allow a single 20-yard pass completion. They are replacing their entire defensive line, and in the opener they allowed over 200 rushing yards to Cincinnati — 96 from the quarterback spot.
Game prediction
Comparing the five-star quarterbacks, Raiola has the extra year of experience and has looked sharper throwing the ball this season, but Underwood brings more of a rushing threat, which is an area Nebraska struggled with against Cincinnati.
I'll give the passing edge to Nebraska due to Raiola and a more dynamic set of receivers; however, the lines of scrimmage seem to tilt Michigan's way.
Game Grader has Nebraska favored by 4 points, but this is a spot where I go against my formula. This is a "prove-it" spot for Rhule's rebuild, but until they do so, Michigan is the pick.
Michigan 21 | Nebraska 17
Most recent Pick Six Previews stories
Related topics
Brett Ciancia
