SALT LAKE CITY — The SEC schedule heats up this week with four league games, plus another ranked matchup with No. 16 Texas A&M traveling to No. 8 Notre Dame.
Our national game of the week takes us to Knoxville, Tennessee for No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 15 Tennessee in a game that appears much more competitive than originally forecasted over the summer.
Georgia's offense was slowed down against their FCS opponent Austin Peay last week in the 28-6 win, and they failed to punch in a score with first-and-goal from the 1-yard line.
Tennessee has answered its preseason questions on offense by dropping 45 points on Power Four Syracuse, and then 72 on their FCS opponent East Tennessee State.
Tennessee is attempting to end a near-decade losing long streak against Georgia. Their last victory was Joshua Dobbs' miracle touchdown pass in the final seconds in 2016. For Georgia, this is a chance to quiet the doubters and re-establish themselves as the flag-bearer of the SEC (1:30 p.m. MDT, ABC).
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
3-year average (2022-24): Georgia 85.4 (1st of 68 Power 4) | Tennessee 69.9 (9th)
2024 season: Georgia 68.7 (11th) | Tennessee 67.0 (13th)
2025 season: Georgia 75.1 (5th) | Tennessee 66.6 (17th)
My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.
In my annual season preview magazine Pick Six Previews, I selected Georgia as an at-large playoff team and projected them third in the SEC. Tennessee was projected 10th in a deep SEC, but that was still good enough for a No. 21 national ranking.
Georgia with the ball
Georgia offense: 36.5 points/game (41st of 136 FBS), 5.1 yards/carry (47th), 7.1 yards/pass (77th)
Tennessee defense: 21.5 points/game (74th of 136 FBS), 2.1 yards/carry (13th), 6.2 yards/pass (61st)
Georgia's offense was lacking explosiveness in the pass game, and their receivers had one of the worst drop rates in the country last year. Their main mission this offseason was to fix the receiver room, where they signed two of the top 10 transfers with Zachariah Branch (USC) and Noah Thomas (Texas A&M).
Branch was a five-star recruit and All-American kick returner, while the 6-foot-6 Thomas averaged 15 yards/catch. Branch had a big opener with three catches for 95 yards and a score against Marshall but was quiet last week.
Quarterback Gunner Stockton has created plays with his legs, the running back stable is deep, as usual, and the offensive line is one of the nation's best with the entire two deep packed with former Top 200 recruits.
That offensive line has not allowed a sack all season, but the pass game does not appear to be fixed yet, and Stockton is 14th of 16 teams in the SEC in QB Rating.
They face off against one of the top front sevens in college football. Four defensive linemen are gone from last year's top-rated unit; however, coordinator Tim Banks rotates his line so much that 12-14 guys were contributors. Five starters from the back seven returned. Tennessee has the slight advantage on this side of the ball.
Tennessee with the ball
Tennessee offense: 58.5 points/game (4th of 136 FBS), 5.7 yards/carry (26th), 8.8 yards/pass (34th)
Georgia defense: 6.5 points/game (9th of 136 FBS), 2.1 yards/carry (12th), 6.4 yards/pass (66th)
Going into the offseason, I thought Tennessee's offense had a ton of questions to figure out: four offensive linemen gone, all three receivers gone, and the loss of All-SEC running back Dylan Sampson.
Like Georgia, they needed to find more vertical passing. That was the forecast before the Nico Iamaleava drama took over in spring ball.
In a virtual quarterback "trade," Iamaleava went to UCLA and UCLA's starter Joey Aguillar came to Knoxville. So far so good for Aguillar with a perfect five touchdowns, no picks, a high 9.1 yards/attempt, and the No. 5 spot on the SEC QB Rating leaderboard.
Like Georgia, the new offensive line has not allowed a single sack all season. That will be put to the test against one of the nation's most talented defenses.
On paper, it is the No. 1 most talented, as half of the two-deep — 11 of 22 — were former five-stars. Georgia has the best track record on defense since Kirby Smart took over with eight straight top-15 units (per Pick Six Previews' opponent-adjusted metric) and six top-5 finishes. This year should be no different.
Game prediction
The strength is on the defensive side of the ball. The quarterbacks are still relative unknowns, with Stockton just a few starts into his career and Aguillar making the jump up from Appalachian State and the Sun Belt to face what I call the NFL's 33rd defense.
Despite the contrast of their FCS performances last week, Georgia is still the more proven program and they will make it a ninth straight over the Vols.
Georgia 23 | Tennessee 21
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Brett Ciancia
