SALT LAKE CITY — After an action-packed opening weekend that featured three top-10 matchups, the national game of the week preview takes us to Ames, Iowa, for the annual Cy-Hawk game. Big Noon Kickoff is in town, and No. 16 Iowa State is looking for their first home win over Iowa since 2011.
Iowa State is fresh off their best season in school history, an 11-win campaign that earned them a spot in the Big 12 title game. Iowa went 8-5 last year, lost the Music City Bowl, but signed one of the top transfer quarterbacks this cycle to attempt to spark the offense.
Every year, this rivalry game features elite defensive coordinators, two of the best player development programs, excellent special teams, and a tight one-score result. This edition should be no different (10 a.m. MDT, FOX).
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
3-year average (2022-24): Iowa State 57.6 (21st of 68 Power 4) | Iowa 51.3 (33rd)
2024 season: Iowa State 64.3 (16th) | Iowa 56.7 (29th)
2025 projection: Iowa State (34th) | Iowa (35th)
My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.
In my annual season preview magazine Pick Six Previews, I selected both Iowa State and Iowa on the top-40 board, but outside the top 25 and in their respective conference title races.
Iowa State impressed in Week 0 with a 24-21 win over Kansas State in Ireland, and then routed FCS South Dakota last week 55-7. Iowa defeated FCS Albany 34-7 in their opener.
Iowa State with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)
Iowa State offense (2024): 37th of 68 Power 4 (45th passing, 32nd rushing)
Iowa defense (2024): 30th of 68 Power 4 (30th passing, 44th rushing)
Rocco Becht led four game-winning drives last season, and again grinded out a one-score win over Kansas State. The term clutch is overused in sports, but if there is ever a spot for it, Becht deserves the hype.
There was no hangover last week as Becht set an Iowa State school record for completion percentage, going 19-of-20 to pass Seneca Wallace. Becht has now thrown a touchdown in 20 straight games, which is the longest active streak nationally.
This team may not have the national signing day five-star recruits, but head coach Matt Campbell continues to develop his players and win close games. They excel in all the hidden key stats, like fourth down conversions (23 of their last 28), red zone (10 of 13 this year), and turnover margin.
They face off against one of the most consistent defenses of the past decade, led by legendary coordinator Phil Parker. After a stretch of four straight top-10 defenses (per my opponent-adjusted metrics), the 2024 unit fell to 30th despite being packed with veterans.
Now they have to replace two defensive linemen, both linebackers, and three defensive backs. They did retain two big-time linemen in Aaron Graves and Ethan Hurkett, and they passed their first test by suffocating Albany to just 177 yards and 7 points.
Iowa with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)
Iowa offense (2024): 38th of 68 Power 4 (49th passing, 10th rushing)
Iowa State defense (2024): 42nd of 68 Power 4 (12th passing, 62nd rushing)
Iowa signed South Dakota State two-time national champion quarterback Mark Gronowski to spark an offense that has struggled for several seasons. The season-opener was far from a passing explosion, as Gronowski went 8-of-15 for 44 yards passing.
Running back Xavier Williams was the star as he rushed for 122 yards to become Iowa's first 100-yard back in a debut since Shonn Greene (2005).
Iowa's strength is at offensive line with All-Big Ten selections Logan Jones and Gennings Dunker, and they will face off against a pair of All-Big 12 picks in Iowa State's front six with Domonique Orange and Will McLaughlin.
Like Parker, Jon Heacock is one of the best defensive minds in the game and his innovative 3-3 stack scheme has puzzled Big 12 coordinators for years.
Game prediction
A win for Iowa would give Kirk Ferentz the all-time Big Ten record for career coaching wins; he is currently tied with Woody Hayes. So many of his 205 wins were a result of excellent special teams play.
This time around, Iowa State has a special teams weapon of their own, as their kicker Kyle Konrardy hit a school record 63-yard field goal last week (ninth longest in NCAA history).
Look for a tight, one-score game here. Their past four matchups have an average margin of just 4 points. This 2025 edition will follow the usual script, except the Cy-Hawk will finally flip back to the home team, thanks to fourth-quarter heroics by Becht.
Iowa State 20 | Iowa 14
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Brett Ciancia
