Estimated read time: 3-4 minutes
- Utah Jazz fell to No. 5 in the lottery, disappointing fans and owner.
- General manager Justin Zanik remains optimistic about the draft's potential talent.
- The result likely set up another date with the lottery next season.
SALT LAKE CITY — Any rebuild takes some luck. So far, the Utah Jazz haven't had much.
Utah's fall to No. 5 during Monday's lottery was the latest example. That result stung the fan base and the organization deeply. Team owner Ryan Smith said he even audibly screamed the morning after the draw was complete — he likely wasn't alone.
Still, the pain was somewhat expected.
Utah only had a 14% chance of winning the lottery and a 47.9% chance of falling all the way to No. 5. In reality, the most probable individual outcome is exactly what happened.
"The rebuild is on track. It always has been, whether we got No. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5," general manager Justin Zanik said. "This is a good young player in a very, very good draft that we're excited about."
Some would disagree with his first point. It's been three years since the Jazz traded Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert, and they've yet to find a foundational young star. Still, the No. 5 pick carries value.
As things stand — with the usual caveats about pre-draft volatility — the Jazz will likely choose whoever is left between Rutgers wing Ace Bailey, Baylor guard V.J. Edgecombe and Texas guard Tre Johnson.
Bailey was seen as the second-best prospect entering the season and is the best tough-shot maker in the class. Edgecombe might be the best pure athlete in the draft. Johnson has turned heads at this week's draft combine with his shooting prowess and slightly better-than-expected testing numbers.
All are intriguing talents, but none are viewed as franchise-altering — the kind of player the Jazz desperately need to kickstart their rebuild.
So, where does the team go from here?
The Dallas Mavericks and San Antonio Spurs — who jumped up to No. 1 and No. 2, respectively — reportedly have no interest in moving from the top of the draft. But if the Jazz are sold on someone beyond Cooper Flagg and Dylan Harper, moving up to No. 3 might be within reach.
In 2018, Dallas traded No. 5 and a future top-five protected pick to move up for Luka Doncic. The Jazz have ample draft capital — and maybe even players — that could interest Philadelphia, which holds this year's No. 3 pick.
"We do have two firsts this year and two seconds, so that gives us some flexibility to maybe move around," Zanik said.
There's also the pie-in-the-sky scenario where Utah trades for someone like Devin Booker or Giannis Antetokounmpo (or both?) and tries to compete immediately. The far more likely outcome? Utah picks at No. 5, loses a lot of games, and tries again in the 2026 lottery.
One big reason for that: Utah still owes Oklahoma City a first-round pick in 2026.
That protected pick has been a weight around Utah's neck since the teardown/rebuild began. It influenced decisions at last season's trade deadline and will likely shape the 2025-26 season, as well.
Next year's pick is top-eight protected, which means the Jazz would need to finish with one of the league's four worst records to guarantee they keep it on lottery night. So, Jazz fans, buckle up for at least one more season aboard the tank train.
The good news: After 2026, things get cleaner. The OKC pick debt will be gone. Utah will have full control of its assets and can actually try to win some games. And the 2026 draft, headlined by BYU's AJ Dybantsa, is projected to be more star heavy than 2025's class.
But if the Jazz are gearing up for another year of "youth development" — or whatever they want to call tanking — then it's time to find new homes for Collin Sexton, Jordan Clarkson, and John Collins, all of whom are heading into the final year of their contracts (assuming Collins exercises his player option).
If Lauri Markkanen, who will be 29 when the 2026-27 season starts, is fine waiting another year, great; if not, then he probably needs to be part of that conversation, as well.
That would at least finalize the teardown and allow the team to lose naturally — not through lineup manipulation and injury report shenanigans.
Then, come next May, the Jazz can hope their luck finally turns.
