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PROVO — The best time of year is upon us.
It's an honor to be back at KSL.com with my weekly in-season role covering both BYU and Utah. After another round of conference realignment, the two rivals are back on a collision course in the same league for the first time since 2010.
A mere 14 years ago the two were both in the non-AQ Mountain West, but now they are meeting up at the Power Four level, in the new 16-team Big 12. BYU made the jump last season, but suffered the program's first losing season since 2017 and just their second since 2004.
The Cougars weren't alone in their transition season struggles as the four Big 12 newcomers (BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF) went a combined 4-24 against the legacy Big 12 teams.
The 13th annual Pick Six Previews season preview magazine was released in July, and I have BYU projected for another difficult transition season as they continue to build their Power Four roster. The margins are razor thin between these middle-tier teams, and BYU's projected finish could rise with success in a few key statistical categories.
For more position-by-position breakdowns, advanced stats, coordinator grades, and trends, check out the full magazine.
"Run the ball, stop the run": 68th (of 70 Power Four teams in 2023)
This metric combines rushing offense and rushing defense to give an overall view on a program's strength in the trenches. The football mantra "run the ball, stop the run" has been an indicator of success for generations, and it is something that BYU must improve on in 2024.
Along with the increased speed and talent of the Power Four level, there is increased size — and depth — along the lines of scrimmage. As BYU continues their transition, this needs to be an area of emphasis.
Defensive lineman Tyler Batty is a good centerpiece to build around. He earned a preseason All-Big 12 spot in my magazine.
QB Rating: 112th of 133 FBS teams in 2023)
Yards/attempt: 117th
BYU was actually ranked 11th nationally in QB Rating in 2022 with Jaren Hall at the helm, and in the preseason article last year I noted how important it would be to avoid a major drop off at the position.
The transition was a total collapse with Pittsburgh transfer Kedon Slovis and Jake Retzlaff. The offense fell 101 spots in QB Rating, and the passing offense was broken all season.
For 2024, Slovis is gone and it will be BYU's first fall camp quarterback battle since 2021. The incumbent Retzlaff is being challenged by former Baylor starting quarterback and Big 12 champion Gerry Bohanon.
Way back in 2021, Bohanon led the title run with 18 passing touchdowns, 12 rushing scores, and a 63% completion rate but was injured halfway through the 2022 season at USF and has been rehabbing since.
As of the time of writing, offensive coordinator Aaron Roderick said "we haven't decided yet what we're gonna do" for the starting job.
Offensive line run push: 123rd (of 133 FBS in 2023)
In 2021 and 2022, the BYU line was one of the few to post consecutive years placing in the top 25 of both my offensive line run push metric and pass protection sack rate. The OL run push collapsed last year 100 spots from the top 25 to the bottom 10.
Head coach Kalani Sitake made a coaching change, bringing in TJ Woods as the offensive line coach and run game coordinator. Woods was part of the great Wisconsin rushing attacks in the 2010s, and then coached four All-Pac 12 linemen in three years at Oregon State.
Starting center Connor Pay noted the hire as a key reason why he stayed at BYU for a bonus year. Pay, along with former Oklahoma State starter Caleb Etienne, and All-Big 12 candidate Weylin Lapuaho, lead the way as experienced starters. The run push must improve if BYU wants to return to bowl season.
Defensive negative play rate: 129th (of 133 FBS in 2023)
For years, the BYU defensive scheme had been extra conservative, safe, and often dropped eight players into pass coverage. The goal was to limit explosive, long-yardage plays, but it also meant a lack of blitzing and pressure on the quarterback.
No other stat represents this better than my negative play rate, which tracks how frequently the defense is making disruptive plays at or behind the line-of-scrimmage.
Sitake hired defensive coordinator Jay Hill last year to bring a whole new mindset, and scheme, to Provo. His aggressive, attacking defensive scheme helped Weber State post five straight top-25 defenses at the FCS level.
That did not translate into the stat sheet, as BYU moved up just one spot, from 130th to 129th, in negative play rate. Look for this number to see some gains now with a second-year scheme bonus.
2024 Pick Six Preview magazine superlatives
- Tyler Batty, DL: 1st Team, All-Big 12
- Jack Kelly, DL (Weber State): Big 12 All-Transfer Team
- Linebackers: 9th in Big 12 unit rankings
