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ROY — As the multibillion-dollar Sentinel nuclear defense initiative takes shape at an ever-expanding Roy complex next to Hill Air Force Base, Northrop Grumman Corp. is reporting steady advances in development of the technology underlying the intercontinental ballistic missile system.
Parallel to that, though, expected cost overruns have prompted federal officials to take a closer look at the program, a huge job creator and economic engine in northern Utah.
On Tuesday, Northrop Grumman, the prime Sentinel contractor, announced that several "crucial elements" of the missile and defense system had been successfully tested at facilities in Promontory in Utah and California. The testing provides important insights into the "in-flight structural dynamics" of Sentinel's missile systems as the U.S. Air Force project — to be a key prong of U.S. defense — edges forward.
"These successes give us confidence as we continue progressing on the path to deliver a safe, secure and reliable capability to the nation," Sarah Willoughby, vice president and program manager of the Sentinel program for Northrop Grumman, said in a statement. Sentinel will replace the aging Minuteman III ICBM system — maintained at the Ogden Air Logistic Complex at Hill Air Force Base — and serve as the land-based prong of the nation's "nuclear triad," the system of land-, air- and sea-based nuclear defense systems.
Simultaneously, reports are trickling out of Washington of cost overruns so pronounced that they've triggered a formal federal review and even talk of ending the LGM-35A Sentinel project, as it's more formally known. Bloomberg reported last month when the rising costs started garnering increased attention that the Sentinel's overall estimated price tag now totals $131.5 billion, up some 37% from the previous projection of $96 billion.
The Office of the Secretary of Defense will review the Sentinel project, Air Force officials told Defense News last month, and "decide whether to restructure the program or cancel it entirely." Defense News is a defense industry publication.
The dramatic talk notwithstanding, Rep. Blake Moore, R-Utah, for one, is skeptical the Sentinel project — expected to create some 4,000 jobs in northern Utah — will be scrapped. He represents the 1st District, which encompasses Roy and Hill Air Force Base.
"There is overwhelming bipartisan support for the Sentinel program and Congress still understands the deterrence measures at stake, especially as we move into an increasingly unstable geopolitical timeframe," Moore's office said in a statement to KSL.com. "We do not believe the program is in jeopardy and will continue to advocate for the program's modernization efforts and for the impact it is making on the northern Utah economy."
Similarly, a top Air Force official told Defense One last month that Sentinel, to be developed over the next 10 or so years, would not be scrapped. "Sentinel will be funded. We'll make the trades that it takes to make that happen," Lt. Gen. Richard Moore, deputy chief of staff for plans and programs, said, according to the trade publication.
Indeed, Sentinel is a major project, perhaps figuring in the speculation that the project will proceed, even if costs are rising. Moore's office called it one of the largest public works projects in U.S. history next to development of the U.S. interstate system, with Hill AFB to be the directorate of the missile network.
The Sentinel plans entail the replacement or upgrade of the Minuteman program's 400 missiles and 450 silos around FE Warren Air Force Base in Wyoming, Malmstrom AFB in Montana and Minot AFB in North Dakota, according to the U.S. General Accounting Office report from last June and other government materials.
"The ground-based strategic deterrent is one of those rare assets where there is no alternative. The underpinning of strategic deterrence is having a credible nuclear force, and ours hasn't been modernized in over 60 years," Moore's office said, underscoring what the congressman believes to be the importance of the Sentinel program.
Beyond U.S. security considerations, Moore's office also noted the economic impact on northern Utah. Northrup Grumman, which received a $13.3 billion U.S. defense contract in 2020 to help with Sentinel engineering and development, has built a sprawling complex of six buildings between Hill AFB and Roy, the Roy Innovation Center, where its efforts are centered.
"A big thing for (Northrup Grumman). Certainly a big thing for northern Utah," said Roy Mayor Bob Dandoy.
He's noticed "a ton of job announcements" for openings at Northrop Grumman in northern Utah. At the same time, Roy officials have been updating zoning guidelines in the city center to spur redevelopment, in part with an eye to potential growth brought on by the Sentinel work at the Roy Innovation Center.
Most immediately, officials have created a redevelopment zone to encourage a mix of residential and commercial development in a 67-acre swath off the east side of 1900 West, Roy's main commercial corridor. A developer is contemplating an apartment project with commercial space on the ground floor in the area, in part to accommodate workers at the Roy Innovation Center.
"We're just waiting now for the property owner and developer to pull the trigger," Dandoy said.
Cost hikes, delays
As for the growing Sentinel price tag, the rise stems in part from increased estimates of costs of future Sentinel phases, actual production and construction. Planners originally thought they would be able to reuse cable and fiberoptic networks serving the Minuteman system, but that won't be possible. "So now they need to dig up and replace cable networks that they didn't expect," Moore's office said, also noting increases in the cost of many materials since the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Sentinel review stems from provisions of the Nunn-McCurdy Act, which calls for project reviews when cost growth exceeds certain thresholds. The U.S. Air Force will carry out the review and then submit its findings in a report to be delivered to Congress, perhaps by May.
Aside from cost issues, the U.S. General Accounting Office also expects delays in the completion of the Sentinel project due in part to staffing shortfalls, supply-chain issues and more.
At any rate, Air Force and Northrop Grumman reps said the project is progressing.
"We've onboarded thousands of engineers. We've matured the system design. We've produced and tested critical hardware in the missile system," Kathy Warden, the Northrop Grumman CEO, said in reporting the defense giant's fourth-quarter earnings for 2023 last month. "We've also engaged in risk reduction, which is helping to inform the Air Force launch facility modernization, and we've done all this while also doing detailed planning for the future phase of the program."
The Air Force said in a message to KSL.com that several successful tests related to Sentinel development have occurred in the last year or so. At the same time, land needed for the project around FE Warren Air Force Base in Montana has been acquired.
Northrop Grumman "expects its nationwide team, including suppliers, to soon involve more than 10,000 people from across the United States who will complete the design, manufacturing, construction and deployment of the Sentinel weapon system over the next decade-and-a-half," the Air Force said.
