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Editors note: This article was published in the Deseret News' On the Trail 2024 newsletter, which is emailed to subscribers Tuesday and Friday mornings.
Think back to August 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic was at its height. Racial justice protests were surging in dozens of U.S. cities. Forest fires blazed across the American West. The presidential election seemed to pour gasoline on it all, pitting a once-impeached incumbent against a self-ordained unifier, in what would later be called the "dirtiest " race for the White House, ever.
In the middle of it all, Sen. Mitt Romney made a surprise trip to Salt Lake City. Senior leaders from The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints invited him to come brief them on the election. According to a new biography by McKay Coppins, Romney gave them a succinct overview. "The way I look at this choice," he said, "is that you can choose an awful person or awful policies. It's one or the other. And your choice will depend on which you consider more important."
Now, over three years later, the country seems to be barreling toward a repeat of the 2020 election: a showdown between President Joe Biden (who, according to Romney, has "awful policies") versus former President Donald Trump (Romney: an "awful person"). Perhaps more surprisingly, Americans seem increasingly willing to agree with Romney's analysis.
A new poll from The New York Times and Siena College suggests that voters are increasingly disgruntled with the Biden administration's economic and foreign policies. But if Trump is convicted of any of the 91 felony charges against him, it could be enough to cost him the election, the poll shows.
The poll was conducted among registered voters in six key swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Some key policy-related findings:
- 59% trust Trump to do a better job on the economy; 37% trust Biden.
- On immigration, it's 53% for Trump, 41% for Biden.
- On national security, 53% Trump, 41% Biden.
Overall, if they were asked to vote today, 48% say they'd back Trump, and 44% would vote for Biden.
But the calculus changes quickly with the possibility of a Trump conviction. The former president faces over 90 criminal charges in several cases, dealing with his attempts to overturn the 2020 election, mishandling classified documents and misclassifying hush money payments.
If Trump is convicted on any of these charges, around 6% of voters surveyed say they'd switch their vote from Trump to Biden — which would likely be enough to swing the election.
Romney, for his part, came to believe that having a good, moral president was more important than one who agreed with Romney's policy preference. "I think what presidents accomplish by virtue of their personal character is at least as great as what they accomplish by virtue of their policies," he told Coppins. It seems the 2024 election may hinge upon whether voters agree.
