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SALT LAKE CITY — Fresh off of a thrilling ranked win over USC, and with ESPN "College GameDay" in Salt Lake City, Utah fell victim to a rare blowout loss. Oregon came into Rice-Eccles Stadium and snapped Utah's 18-game home win streak, which was the third longest in America.
The 35-6 loss was lopsided from the start. Oregon took the opening drive down for a touchdown, held Utah to just 28 rushing yards in the first half, and held the Utes completely out of the end zone. The Ducks neutralized Utah's new two-way weapon Sione Vaki, who finished with just 11 yards.
They also won the turnover battle, won both lines of scrimmage, and even Utah's elite defense couldn't break through as they were unable to notch a single sack in the game.
Blowout losses simply don't happen to this program, especially at home, and head coach Kyle Whittingham likened it to the 2010 loss to TCU (47-7).
For Utah to make it back to Las Vegas to defend their back-to-back Pac-12 titles, they now need to win out and get some help from tiebreakers atop the division-less conference. That is a tough task given road trips to undefeated Washington and red-hot Arizona. But before those tests, Utah hosts 2-6 Arizona State (12 p.m. MDT, Pac-12 Networks).
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
3-year average (2020-22): Utah 66.9 (6th) | Arizona State 50.0 (41st of 69 Power Five)
2022 season: Utah 69.2 (10th) | Arizona State 31.2 (62nd of 69 Power Five)
2023 season: Utah 55.6 (28th) | Arizona State 41.4 (48th of 69 Power Five)
My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance — and adjusts for opponent strength — and is a key piece of my preseason evaluation. Utah stacked another national top-10 finish last year, and thanks to the high amount of returning production, program-record recruiting classes, and proven coaching staff, they earned a No. 8 rank in my 2023 preseason magazine.
Utah fell six spots in Power 5 Game Grader, down to No. 28, after the four-touchdown loss to Oregon. That is good for just seventh in the top-heavy Pac-12.
Don't let their 2-6 record fool you, Arizona State has been playing tough football recently, especially on defense, and they are stronger than the record shows. Despite just two wins, they are ranked up at 48th (of 69 Power Five teams) above many winning teams.
They just notched their first league win over Washington State Saturday night after losing three straight one-score games (California, Colorado, No. 5 Washington).
Arizona State with the ball
Arizona State offense: 64th of 69 Power Five (overall), 68th passing, 64th rushing
Utah defense: 14th of 69 Power Five (overall), 10th passing, 3rd rushing
This has been the Cam Skattebo Show for most of the season as Arizona State has leaned heavily on the do-it-all running back. Skattebo is a physical runner with great balance who always falls forward for the extra yards. He has lined up in the backfield, in the Wildcat, has thrown passes, and has 20 catches on the season — he even punted the ball a few games back.
Last week against Washington State, the rest of the offense finally clicked and it was their first time all season scoring 30+ points and gaining 500+ yards. Trenton Bourguet completed 73% of passes. They were effective with short, quick passes to cover up for an injured offensive line. Arizona State was missing six linemen Saturday, and while its unclear how many are back healthy, it will not be near 100%.
That factors well into Utah's game plan. Utah had one of the best pass rushes in America but then ran into a brick wall in Oregon's offensive line, which is No. 1 in pass protection Sack Rate.
Unlike last game, Utah will break through into the backfield here and stuff Arizona State's run game at or behind the line of scrimmage. Utah has the decisive advantage on this side of the ball, and I expect a bounce back performance by Morgan Scalley's unit.
Utah with the ball
Utah offense (2023): 65th of 69 Power Five (overall), 66th passing, 46th rushing
Arizona State defense (2023): 10th of 69 Power Five (overall), 13th passing, 24th rushing
The extreme injury list finally caught up to Utah. Without two quarterbacks, two running backs, and two tight ends — including two-time champion Cam Rising and All-America candidate Brant Kuithe — the Utah offense was completely shut down by Oregon's top-10 defense.
Utah only mustered up 28 rushing yards in the first three quarters, Bryson Barnes completed just 52% of his passes and tossed two picks, and the offense failed in the red zone. Nothing worked — not even their Vaki wild card.
While Arizona State doesn't have the star power of Oregon, it doesn't get much easier for the Utes Saturday. Defensive coordinator Brian Ward has the Sun Devils playing excellent defense. Arizona State checks in at No. 10 in my opponent-adjusted defensive numbers and have held seven of their eight opponents below their season averages.
Their pass defense dominated California, Colorado and Washington State, but their best performance was against Heisman front-runner Michael Penix Jr. They kept Washington out of the end zone completely and stole two picks from Penix.
Advantage: Arizona State
Game prediction
This one will resemble a Big Ten West battle: elite defenses against struggling offenses.
Statistically, these two matchup, but Utah has slight advantages in both rushing offense and rushing defense; and in a game like this, the lines of scrimmage make the difference. Utah has the edge there, plus home field advantage, and will beat a surging Arizona State team that is better than their 2-6 record.
Utah 17 | Arizona State 13
