Utes mailbag: What will Utah's record be over its final 4 games?

SALT LAKE CITY — A loss like the University of Utah absorbed Saturday at the hands of Oregon will have you recalibrating what you believe this season can still be for the Utes.

At 6-2 overall and 3-2 in the Pac-12 with four games to go, well, what might those four games ultimately yield?

We're going to start this Utes mailbag right there.

Q: "Not sure there is a gimme the rest of the way. What's Utah's W/L in the last 4?" – @ShortStackUte

Meh, I hate talking about a gimme at this level, but Arizona State on Saturday should be a gimme. Utah is better, no matter who the QB is, and I don't feel the need to spend time and space here explaining why. Colorado in the regular-season finale is not a gimme, but I'm convinced Utah should get that one, too, at this point.

The Utes will be a decisive road underdog on Nov. 11 at Washington, which has looked shaky the last two weeks and now has to go to USC, which, for all the jokes everyone has made, is right there in the Pac-12 championship game mix with one conference loss.

A trip to Arizona already felt tougher than many want to admit, then the Wildcats leaned on Oregon State late to take that game Saturday in Tucson. Arizona is well-coached, it plays tough, and Noah Fifita has been a revelation at quarterback. By no means is that the automatic win it once was.

I really don't think Colorado is walking into Rice-Eccles Stadium and winning, so I'm setting the floor at 2-2 for the last four games. I am on the side of folks believing Utah can handle Arizona, even with the Wildcats looking increasingly dangerous, so I'm going with 3-1.

Beating Washington in Seattle is too tall a task after what we all just watched Oregon do to Utah. The Huskies are a little more one-dimensional on offense than the Ducks, but my point stands.

We'll get to this a little deeper if we need to late next month, but 9-3 overall and 6-3 in the Pac-12, with all of the injuries and all of the Rising/QB uncertainty, should probably be commended.

Q: "The missing role of Micah Bernard is not talked about enough. Not really a question, but maybe consider this a request to discuss." – @yoburnersburner

I completely agree, and I am guilty of not pursuing that a little harder when it first happened. To be honest, it got buried underneath at least 2-3 other things at the time, including Cam Rising and the QB situation, which, at the time, felt unsettled with Rising having just received full practice clearance.

Bernard's season-ending injury, a non-football, off-the-field situation that occurred in the days after the opener vs. Florida, had a profound impact on the running backs room. That has everything to do with the fact that Bernard, a fourth-year sophomore in 2023, was the most-experienced, most-accomplished player Utah had at the position.

Furthermore, he was also the team's most-versatile running back, a downhill runner adept at catching passes out of the backfield, and very good in pass protection.

Ja'Quinden Jackson has been good, but he doesn't have all the intangibles Bernard has. Utah having to call upon Sione Vaki to provide some juice as a running back thanks to a bunch of injuries, including Bernard, helps tell you what you need to know here.

The question now becomes, is Bernard coming back in 2024? If Utah applies for a medical redshirt for Bernard, they will get it, meaning he will have two years of eligibility left beginning next season. Bernard is currently in his fifth year of college.

Does he have the appetite to keep being in school? Is the NIL situation sufficient? Those are just two questions to ponder for what will be a big, underrated personnel decision for Utah, one of many that are looming.

Q: "Is it time for Brandon Rose to get a shot?" – @NonBiasedBall

No. Why? Based on what?

I have more on this topic coming Thursday for KSL.com, but just a few things to remember for now.

First, a reminder that this is not the NFL, where tanking for a better draft pick is a thing. Two, Kyle Whittingham after the Oregon game indicated for no less than the third time since the Cal game that Bryson Barnes is his starting quarterback. Barnes gives this team the best chance to win, which Whittingham reiterated Monday. Three, Utah is not technically eliminated from advancing to the Pac-12 championship game yet, so even if Whittingham were to radically experiment at QB, now is not the time.

I'm getting a lot of X mentions and direct messages clamoring for Rose, who sustained a significant injury during fall camp and missed, if memory serves, roughly a month of practice before he began running the scout team. That means he missed a ton of reps and a ton of work, with Whittingham saying at one point last month they were very likely going for a medical redshirt for Rose.

A medical redshirt remains the path for Rose. This kid, barring something radical, is not going to take a meaningful snap this season. Rose has not dressed this season as even QB3, so please, after I've said all of this, tell me why Rose should not only play meaningful games, but start a game this fall.

Make it good, though, because I'm quite certain whatever most of you have lined up for me on this topic isn't good enough.

Q: "What's the right cream cheese flavor for a morning bagel?" – @stuspence51

The wording here is outstanding. My man isn't asking for the best cream cheese flavor, he's asking for the right one. That indicates I am a subject expert, which is accurate.

I don't get too crazy with my cream cheeses. Push comes to shove, plain is the move, but I also really enjoy veggie cream cheese and lox spread. The gentleman's move is to get any of those, plus a slice or two of tomato on the bagel. Very, very satisfying.

A few words on lox spread: I was a late adopter of lox. A lot of fish-based foods associated with Judaism freaked me out when I was a kid, including lox, but I got on board very quickly once I gave it a fair shake about a decade ago. I love, LOVE, a bagel with plain cream cheese and lox, but it's expensive.

I get that only once in a very rare while, but lox spread, which is just lox-flavored cream cheese, sometimes found with pieces of lox mixed in, satisfies that craving. Good lox spread can even save a bad bagel in some cases, so there's that.

Q: "Is there still a path to the Pac-12 championship? If so, what is the path?" – @jazzfan9798

As referenced above, Utah is not out of the Pac-12 championship mix, but the loss to Oregon severely hampered that possibility.

Above all else, Utah would have to win out to get to 7-2 against the conference, meaning home wins over Arizona State and Colorado, wrapped around road wins at Washington and Arizona. Winning out is non-negotiable, 6-3 is not getting it done in a division-less Pac-12.

I have not done all the different permutations, but just like last year, Utah would need some chaos elsewhere to get back to Las Vegas. A good start for the Utes would be Washington beating USC on Saturday in Los Angeles. That result would push the Trojans to two Pac-12 losses, plus Utah owning the head-to-head tiebreaker. Washington-Oregon State on Nov. 18 is also worth circling.

As I write this, I am again reminded that none of this matters unless Utah wins out. Let's just stick with that for now. There is a road back to Vegas, but it's going to take at least four Utah wins here down the stretch. We can get to the rest later.

Q: "Cut to the chase, is Cam coming back or is it the Isaac Wilson show?" - @CarseyKellen

I can't tell whether or not this is hyperbole.

I genuinely hope it's not because I love the all-or-nothing, no-middle scenario of Rising coming back for a seventh year, or the true freshman coming in off knee surgery to take command of the room immediately.

I'll tell you what, you're more likely to see Rising return in 2024 than you are Wilson starting the 2024 opener against Southern Utah.

Now, if Rising does return, which is merely on the table and certainly not a lock, we're going to have to discuss what the room looks like in between him and Wilson. If Rising returns, he is starting, and if he is starting, that means it's another year of no one else starting.

That said, what does Bryson Barnes think about that, and how much patience do Nate Johnson and Brandon Rose have? What's the NIL situation there? What does the transfer portal market look like for Rose, who has not taken a collegiate snap?

The Nos. 1, 2, 3, 8, 14, and 17 offseason storylines are Rising's decision, and how it ultimately affects that position room at Utah.

Q: "How far down from the corners of one's mouth does a mustache have to go before you consider it a handlebar mustache?" - @lisadancefit

I am by no means a facial hair expert. To be honest, I didn't even know I could grow legitimate facial hair approaching a respectable beard until very early in the pandemic when I gave up on shaving and haircuts altogether.

A handlebar mustache in its truest form, with the ends curving up, often with the help of mustache wax, always strikes me as one of the most try-hard moves any man can make. Just an unnecessary, look-at-me vibe, and I'm telling you right now, if you have a true handlebar mustache, I assume you're pretentious and pedantic, if not obnoxious, and you belong on Peaky Blinders as an extra.

For the purposes of this question, I assume you're talking about more of a horseshoe mustache (Google it). In that case, it has to come all the way down to your chin to pull it off, and really, why would you not take it all the way down to your chin? Stopping short makes no sense and makes you look like you just learned how to shave yesterday.

Great question. Bonus points for you, sir.

Q: "With the expanded format coming, has this program reached the point where not making the College Football Playoff is a huge disappointment?" - @MJ_Pushedov

Interesting.

I've been consistent for a long time that the rational, reasonable, annual goal for Utah should be winning the Pac-12, and in some years, you can harbor legitimate aspirations to reach the four-team College Football Playoff. The Utes entered 2022 with enough, on paper, to reach the CFP. That's a fact.

A two-loss team has never reached the CFP since its inception in 2014, and that's going to be the case again this season. In 2024, the CFP will expand to 12 teams, meaning you're going to see teams with two, maybe even three losses get in, and conferences will assuredly get multiple teams in. It's really not hard to imagine the SEC in a very good season making up one third of the 12-team field.

Objectively, if Utah does not get crushed in the portal, plus various other defections this offseason, its projected 2024 roster is a top-3 outfit in the Big 12, and that's with the QB situation in flux.

The Utes have been a power player in the Pac-12 for most of the last six seasons. If that continues into the Big 12, it's going to be hard to find excuses for missing a 12-team CFP if you're rattling off nine-win, 10-win seasons with some regularity, as is the case now.

What a college football world we're living in, where not getting to the CFP is about to be viewed as a huge disappointment for a lot more teams beginning next season.

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