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SALT LAKE CITY — Utah's season is about to flip a switch.
Starting Saturday, Utah football will begin a six-week stretch where the teams faced have a penchant for throwing the ball all around the field — like, a lot more than any team already faced this season. Of those six games, four opponents rank inside the top 10 in the country of most passing yards thrown on average per game.
Good luck, secondary!
But it's not like the first game of that stretch is against the reigning Heisman Trophy winner or anything ... or three other players in consideration for the 2023 award during that stretch. Nope.
Utah defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley and his players will have their work cut out for them as the program looks to close out the season strong and remain in contention for another Pac-12 championship opportunity. But for any of that to become a reality, one of Utah's biggest tests comes Saturday on the road at the LA Coliseum against USC quarterback Caleb Williams.
And though Utah has three consecutive wins over the Trojans — including two emotionally-charged matchups in 2022 — going into the final meeting of the quasi rivalry between the two schools, it's one in which the Utes enter in less-than-perfect form (injuries) but there's been marked improvement on the defensive side of the ball.
Utah's defense is arguably better than its 2022 showing — it still led the Pac-12 in total defense — but there's been cracks in the armor in the secondary's coverage in the previous six games of the season. So is it a telltale sign for bad things to come, or will it prompt an adjustment to combat a different style of offense Utah hasn't seen much in 2023?
Whatever the trajectory, it's one Scalley believes can go in Utah's favor.
"What do you want me to say, no?" Scalley said in response to a question about whether he's confident in his secondary's ability to handle the shift in offensive schemes.
"We'll find out," he added. "There's things each week that you're trying to improve — technique, you're trying to improve zone drops — and some of that, too, is bad coaching decisions on some of that stuff. But I love our mentality, and film tells us really everything you need to know; and right now, we just need to make progress each and every week."
And Scalley believes his defense continues to make progress on a week-to-week basis, even if the competition hasn't yet fully shifted to a pass-heavy offense. Former Utah opponents Florida and Baylor are ranked 32nd and 33rd, respectively, in passing offense, but Utah found ways to negate either team and come away with a win.
But that challenge gets exponentially more difficult, especially with nation-leading Washington looming in a few weeks.
To see where Utah currently stands in coverage against lesser talent — at least in comparison to what's ahead — Pro Football Focus tracks an NFL passer rating against individual defenders. And while there are some successes to celebrate — the passer rating for quarterbacks that face Cole Bishop is just 4.8 — there are definite flaws.
NFL passer rating in coverage:
- Cole Bishop, S: 4.8
- Miles Battle, CB: 64.1
- Sione Vaki, S: 69.0
- Zemaiah Vaughn, CB: 72.9
- Nate Ritchie, S: 91.7
- Tao Johnson, S: 106.6
- JaTravis Brought, CB: 120.4
Though just one metric — and many others could have be used to highlight individual successes and failures by each defender — it paints a picture of where Utah's strengths and weaknesses have been thus far this season.
None of that is to say this is how Utah will remain throughout the remainder of the season, but it's one data point to help Utah prepare for the onslaught of passing.
(And none of this takes into account how the front seven will react or impact the game to change it for the secondary, either.)
Whatever the product put forth on the field Saturday in Utah's biggest test of the season thus far, Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham points to the strength of his team's high marks in pass efficiency.
"Right now we're leading the conference in pass efficiency defense, which is the No. 1 barometer that you look at for your pass defense; it's not overall yards, it's the efficiency," Whittingham said. "There's some big challenges on the horizon, and we'll see how we hold up, but I think we've done some good things in the secondary.
"I really like our secondary and think we've got some good players back there, but they will be tested, no doubt, coming up. So we'll see."
The best way to see how Utah will respond is to get into the thick of it and face the best, and there's argument Utah will face the best this season. But like Whittingham said, "we'll see" how Utah comes out on the other end.
