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PROVO — After 11 years as an independent program, BYU made its long-awaited Big 12 debut Saturday in Lawrence, Kansas.
On the second play from scrimmage, the undefeated Jayhawks dealt BYU a "Welcome to the Power Five" shot as all-conference cornerback Cobee Bryant hammered running back Parker Kingston, jarred the ball loose, and returned it for a score.
Just like how they battled back from an early deficit a week prior against Arkansas, BYU rallied for two long touchdown drives and claimed a 17-14 halftime lead. Disaster struck again after the break, as Kansas took back another defensive touchdown — this time off of a deflected pass.
The pair of defensive scores, plus some key halftime adjustments from the Kansas offensive staff, proved to be the difference in BYU's 38-27 loss. After consecutive Power Five road trips, BYU heads back to Provo Friday for their Big 12 home opener (8:15 p.m. MDT, ESPN).
Like BYU, Cincinnati is also making the transition up to the Power Five ranks this year, and both are in search of their first league win.
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
3-year average (2020-22): BYU 60.5 (16th of 69 Power Five) | Cincinnati 63.9 (10th)
2022 season: BYU 45.4 (50th of 69 Power Five) | Cincinnati 49.9 (37th)
2023 season: BYU 47.5 (43rd of 69 Power Five) | Cincinnati 45.8 (46th)
My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance — and adjusts for opponent strength — and is a key piece of my preseason evaluation. After peaking at No. 5 in 2020, BYU slid to No. 26 in 2021, and then collapsed last year all the way down to No. 50 (of 69 Power Five teams) for the second-worst grade of the entire Kalani Sitake era.
After the road loss at Kansas, BYU fell five spots in my 2023 Game Grader rankings from 38th down to 43rd.
Cincinnati started the season strong with an FCS blowout win followed by a Power Five win over Pittsburgh, in which they jumped to a big lead; however, it has been downhill since, with a loss to the MAC's Miami (Ohio) and then a 14-point loss to Oklahoma last week. They check in at 46th in my 2023 Game Grader rankings so far.
Cincinnati with the ball
Cincinnati offense: 40th of 69 Power Five (overall), 65th passing, 10th rushing
BYU defense: 49th of 69 Power Five (overall), 36th passing, 62nd rushing
Scott Satterfield's offense was kept out of the end zone last week in the 20-6 loss. Cincinnati is currently riding a streak of 15 straight drives without a touchdown, and their pass game rated fifth-worst in Power Five per my opponent-adjusted passing metric.
Quarterback Emory Jones is at his third school in three years. In 2021 (Florida) he placed ninth of 14 on the SEC's QB Rating leaderboard, and in 2022 (Arizona State) was ninth in the Pac-12. Right on schedule here in the Big 12, Jones is currently ninth; and this time, he also has the worst touchdown-to-interception ratio in the conference.
Cincinnati was also set to replace their top eight receivers from 2022, so these struggles in the pass game were expected back in my preseason magazine. Four starting offensive linemen departed, but the run game has had much more success in September. It will be a noted advantage for Cincinnati's rushing offense against BYU's rushing defense — top 10 vs. bottom 10.
Making matters worse for the Cougars is the injury status of star linebacker Ben Bywater, who led the team in tackles in both 2021 and 2022 and has been a force again this fall. Bywater is noted as "day-to-day," per defensive coordinator Jay Hill, whose defense already lost a pair of defensive back starters, including freshman All-American Micah Harper.
BYU with the ball
BYU offense: 63rd of 69 Power Five (overall), 53rd passing, 68th rushing
Cincinnati defense: 32nd of 69 Power Five (overall), 45th passing, 19th rushing
BYU only mustered 9 rushing yards off of 22 carries last week, and eventually abandoned the run game altogether. BYU's 2.2 yards per carry average is the third-worst in Power Five. But when you adjust for opponent strength, they fall even further to second-worst.
Given their track record of offensive line development — and the consecutive top 25 marks in my OL Run Push metric in 2021 and 2022 — I had called for a strong unit in 2023.
The pass protection (sack rate) number is better — 26th in Power Five — and quarterback Kedon Slovis has elevated his game, even with the increased pressure on the pass game. Slovis had 51 pass attempts Saturday and was a bright spot for the offense. BYU's receiver corps is proving to be dynamic, especially as the original starters re-enter the lineup after injury rehabs.
BYU will need to double down, again, on their heavy passing strategy this week given that Cincinnati has been significantly stronger against the run so far. Cincinnati's pass rush led by all-conference contender Dontay Corleone will test that pass protection number, as they already have 12 sacks in four games.
Game prediction
It will be a one-dimensional offensive output again for BYU, but the passing attack will be strong enough to secure the first Big 12 win in program history. BYU has the edge at quarterback, a more proven coaching staff, and homefield advantage.
My Game Grader formula would slightly favor BYU on a neutral field, but LaVell Edwards Stadium will be electric Friday night and boost the hometown Cougars even more.
BYU 23 | Cincinnati 20
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Brett Ciancia
