Pick Six Previews: Kansas with the edge in high-scoring Big 12 debut for BYU

PROVO — BYU closed out its nonconference slate with a perfect 3-0 record, capped off with a roller-coaster win over Arkansas in Fayetteville Saturday night.

BYU rallied twice from double-digit deficits — first 14-0 and then 31-21 late in the third quarter — to eventually knock off Arkansas 38-31. This marks BYU's third 3-0 start over the past four seasons, and the school's first win over an SEC opponent since 2019 (Tennessee).

Aside from the resilience the Cougars faced on the scoreboard, the key takeaway is the defensive improvement under new coordinator Jay Hill. In the meeting last year, Arkansas dropped 52 points and rolled up 644 yards on a BYU defense that eventually went through a mid-year coordinator firing.

It was a drastic change this time, with the defense only allowing 24 points — the other 7 were off a punt return touchdown — and they shutout Arkansas over the final 26 minutes of the game.

The Big 12 era is finally here. The long-awaited Power Five debut sends the Cougars to Lawrence, Kansas, to face the undefeated Kansas Jayhawks (1:30 p.m. MDT, ESPN).

Game Grader

(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)

3-year average (2020-22): BYU 60.5 (16th of 69 Power 5) | Kansas 25.3 (68th Power Five)
2022 season: BYU 45.4 (50th of 69 Power 5) | Kansas 45.2 (51st Power Five)
2023 season: BYU (38th of 69 Power 5) | Kansas (36th Power Five)

My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance — and adjusts for opponent strength — and is a key piece of my preseason evaluation. After peaking at No. 5 in 2020, BYU slid to No. 26 in 2021, and then collapsed last year all the way down to No. 50 (of 69 Power 5 teams) for the second-worst grade of the entire Kalani Sitake era.

After the road win over Arkansas, BYU climbed six spots in my 2023 Game Grader rankings, from 44th to 38th. Kansas dominated their Power Five opponent Illinois, but then struggled to beat Nevada, which is one of the lowest-rated teams in all of FBS. The Illinois win was strong enough to keep them on the top 40 board, but we will learn much more about Kansas in the next few weeks with Big 12 play starting.

Kansas with the ball

Kansas offense: 15th of 69 Power 5 (yards/play)
BYU defense: 35th of 69 Power Five (yards/play)

Offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki is one of the best in the game. He turned the Kansas offense into a national top 10 unit last year after a decade-plus program slump. His spread, run-pass-option offense constantly makes the defense wrong, and their quarterbacks make sharp reads.

Jalon Daniels was rated as a top 10 quarterback last year but suffered a midseason injury. Even without him, Jason Bean operated the offense well, and the Jayhawks didn't miss a step.

For 2023, the Jayhawks return 10 starters off of its explosive 2022 unit, including a healthy Daniels, who is off to a strong start placing second in the Big 12 in both yards per attempt (10.3) and overall QB Rating. Kansas is just as efficient in the run game, placing in the national top 25 in both yards per carry (5.3) and yards per game (216)

BYU's new-look defense under Hill passed its first Power Five test Saturday against KJ Jefferson, who entered 2023 with All-SEC quarterback honors. The Cougars face another great one here, and Daniels has more speed than Jefferson.

BYU's pass rush impressed in the fourth quarter with three sacks and two forced fumbles; however, the run defense numbers are questionable so far. When adjusting for opponent strength, BYU falls to 63rd (of 69 Power Five) against the run. They are also coming off of a physical SEC battle.

BYU with the ball

BYU offense: 58th of 69 Power Five (yards/play)
Kansas defense: 38th of 69 Power Five (yards/play)

While Kansas made incredible overnight gains on offense from 2021 to 2022 (bottom 10 to top 10), the defense remained a weakness. Against the stronger teams and top recruiters — Texas, Oklahoma, TCU, etc. — you could see the size and strength differences in the trenches.

The storylines this year are the veteran back, seven of which return intact, and the fully rebuilt defensive line that head coach Lance Leipold packed with five FBS transfers. In the small three-game sample size, the rushing defense remains a statistical weakness, while the pass defense has improved.

BYU's run game is still a work in progress but needs to capitalize on this Kansas line. LJ Martin has played into the lead back role, but as a team the 2.7 yards per carry average is in the national bottom 10.

The pass game also needs continued development after posting middle-of-the-pack numbers so far through three games in yards per attempt (68th of 133 FBS), completion percentage (71st) and QB Rating (53rd). Though, when the team needed it most, the passing attack delivered thanks to Chase Roberts' one-handed highlight-reel touchdown grab that ended up as the eventual game-winner.

Game prediction

Look for a high-scoring Big 12 debut for BYU — it's only fitting in a conference once known for pinball-scoring and offensive shootouts. Kansas has the statistical edge in both offense vs. defense matchups, has the more proven and dynamic quarterback, and, of course, home field advantage.

A Kansas win would mark its first consecutive 4-0 start to a season since 1914 and 1915.

Kansas 38 | BYU 34

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