Estimated read time: 4-5 minutes
This archived news story is available only for your personal, non-commercial use. Information in the story may be outdated or superseded by additional information. Reading or replaying the story in its archived form does not constitute a republication of the story.
PROVO — The best time of the year is upon us. It's an honor to be back at KSL.com with my weekly in-season role covering both BYU and Utah.
BYU's 11-year independence era is finished and they now enter the Power Five level, while Utah looks to win a third straight Pac-12 title. And of course, the latest round of conference realignment placed the two rivals on a collision course in the expanded 16-team Big 12 in 2024.
Before that, though, we need to enjoy the 2023 season as it will be the end of an era in college football. This is the final year of the four-team playoff format, the last season of Pac-12 football (after 108 years), and the last time seeing Texas and Oklahoma in their traditional Big 12 footprint.
The 12th annual Pick Six Previews season preview magazine was released in July, and I have BYU projected in the middle of a packed Big 12. The margins are razor thin between these middle-tier teams, and BYU's projected finish could rise with success in a few key statistical categories.
For more position-by-position breakdowns, advanced stats, coordinator grades, and trends, check out the full magazine.
QB Rating (11th of 131 FBS teams in 2022) and Touchdown-Interception Ratio (11th in 2022)
BYU ranked 11th in both categories last year thanks to sharp passing and smart decision-making by quarterback Jaren Hall. With the two-year starter now playing for the Minnesota Vikings, the quarterback spot will be filled by Power Five journeyman Kedon Slovis, who has started for USC and Pittsburgh. Slovis landed on my Big 12 "All-Transfer" team, but Hall (and Zach Wilson before him) leave big shoes to fill.
I've included these as key stats because while BYU has had three years of elite quarterback play, there is no guarantee that the run continues. Slovis had an excellent freshman campaign at USC in 2019 when he placed seventh nationally in QB Rating. But since then, his QB Rating has declined every year: seventh (2019), 34th (2020), 78th (2021), 86th (2022).
Offensive Line Run Push (19th in 2022) and Pass Protection Sack Rate (12th in 2022)
Last season, the BYU offensive line made it two consecutive years placing in the Top 25 of both my Offensive Line Run Push metric and Pass Protection Sack Rate. Two starters head to the pros — Blake Freeland and Harris LaChance — while the Barrington brothers both transferred to play for former BYU line coach Eric Mateos at Baylor.
The line returns Connor Pay at center, and is headlined by former Oregon transfer and five-star Kingsley Suamataia who earned freshman All-America honors after not allowing a single sack in 2022. Two more key transfers arrived this offseason in Utah starter Paul Maile and Utah State starter Weylin Lapuaho.
Whether BYU can replace its three starters and make it three consecutive years of elite offensive line play will be pivotal for the overall season outcome. Suamataia earned a spot on my All-Big 12 first team, and I ranked BYU sixth in the Big 12 unit ranks at offensive line.
Defensive Negative Play Rate (130th in 2022)
For years, the BYU defensive scheme has been extra conservative, safe, and often dropped eight players into pass coverage. The goal was to limit explosive, long-yardage plays, but that also meant a lack of blitzing and pressure on the quarterback.
No other stat represents this better than my Negative Play Rate, which tracks how frequently the defense is making disruptive plays at or behind the line of scrimmage. BYU placed 130th last year — remember, there were 131 FBS teams, meaning they were second-worst nationally.
This is a key number to watch for 2023 because new defensive coordinator Jay Hill is bringing a whole new mindset, and scheme, to Provo. His aggressive, attacking defensive scheme helped Weber State post five straight Top 25 defenses at the FCS level.
BYU returns the bulk of their defensive lineup and is especially stout at linebacker with the pair of Ben Bywater and Max Tooley returning. Along with Opponent QB Rating, this Negative Play Rate will be the best indicator of how quickly Hill is repairing a damaged unit that saw a midseason coordinator firing last fall.
2023 Pick Six Preview magazine superlatives
- OL Kingsley Suamataia: First Team, All-Big 12
- DB Micah Harper: Second Team, All-Big 12
- QB Kedon Slovis (Pittsburgh): Big 12 All-Transfer Team
- OL Paul Maile (Utah): Big 12 All-Transfer Team
- DB Eddie Heckard (Weber State): Big 12 All-Transfer Team
- WR/TE: Fourth in Big 12 unit rankings
- OL: Sixth in Big 12 unit rankings
- LB: Fifth in Big 12 unit rankings
Most recent BYU Cougars stories
Related topics
Brett Ciancia
