Estimated read time: 5-6 minutes
If the oddsmakers are correct, the Pac-12 will produce a stellar season in the final year of its current existence.
Six teams carry win totals of at least 8.5, according to projections released this spring by DraftKings.
USC leads the group with a baseline outlook of 10 wins, followed by Oregon (9.5), Washington (9), then Oregon State, Utah and UCLA (8.5).
We think the outlook is a tad too rosy for a few teams given the schedules, which are provided below.
Then again, several teams with bleak outlooks are well positioned to exceed the totals published by DraftKings.
Here we go …
Arizona
O/U total: 5 wins
Home games (six): NAU, UTEP, Washington, Oregon State, UCLA, Utah
Road games (six): Mississippi State, Stanford, USC, WSU, Colorado, ASU
Our pick: Over 5
Comment: Six wins would be a major step forward for the program, and that bar is well within reach given the array of winnable road assignments. But the key games are at home: Oregon State and UCLA. The Wildcats must win at least one.
Arizona State
O/U total: 5 wins
Home games (eight): Southern Utah, Oklahoma State, Fresno State, USC, Colorado, WSU, Oregon, Arizona
Road games (four): Cal, Washington, Utah, UCLA
Our pick: Under 5
Comment: The schedule is seemingly built to exceed the total with eight home games, but take a closer look: The Sun Devils play all the Pac-12 heavyweights and have two difficult non-conference dates at home (OSU and FSU).
Cal
O/U total: 5 wins
Home games (six): Auburn, Idaho, ASU, Oregon State, WSU, USC
Road games (six): North Texas, Washington, Utah, Oregon, UCLA, Stanford
Our pick: Under 5
Comment: The Bears have a brutal road schedule — North Texas won seven games last season — and that leaves little margin for error. And the lineup of home dates isn't easy, especially with a new quarterback and Auburn paying a visit.
Colorado
O/U total: 3 wins
Home games (six): Nebraska, Colorado State, USC, Stanford, Oregon State, Arizona
Road games (six): TCU, Oregon, ASU, UCLA, WSU, Utah
Our pick: Over 3
Comment: We expected the total to be at least 3.5 given all the hype accompanying the Deion Sanders era, but the oddsmakers are fixated on the schedule. Without wins over Stanford and Colorado State, the Buffs have little chance to hit the Over.
Oregon
O/U total: 9.5 wins
Home games (seven): Portland State, Hawaii, Colorado, WSU, Cal, USC, Oregon State
Road games (five): Texas Tech, Stanford, Washington, Utah, ASU
Our pick: Under 9.5
Comment: Can the Ducks finish with no more than two losses? That seems unlikely with the difficult non-conference road game — Texas Tech was 8-5 last year — plus four high-level league dates. And don't forget the dreaded trip to Stanford.
Oregon State
O/U total: 8.5 wins
Home games (six): UC Davis, San Diego State, Utah, UCLA, Stanford, Washington
Road games (six): San Jose State, WSU, Cal, Arizona, Colorado, Oregon
Our pick: Under 8.5
Comment: The road assignments are just manageable enough to bring nine wins into play, but the key dates are with MW teams: Sweep the non-conference affairs, and OSU has a fighting chance. It could come down to the finale in Eugene.
Stanford
O/U total: 3 wins
Home games (seven): Sacramento State, Arizona, Oregon, UCLA, Washington, Cal, Notre Dame
Road games (five): Hawaii, USC, Colorado, WSU, Oregon State
Our pick: Over 3
Comment: Look for new coach Troy Taylor to squeeze every ounce of talent out of the roster, and there's more than the 2022 results suggest. (Not much more, but enough.) Win in Honolulu, and the Cardinal should scratch and claw to 4-8.
UCLA
O/U total: 8.5 wins
Home games (six): Coastal Carolina, NC Central, WSU, Colorado, ASU, Cal
Road games (six): San Diego State, Utah, Oregon State, Stanford, Arizona, USC
Our pick: Under 8.5
Comment: The Bruins don't have Oregon or Washington on the schedule and don't face a Power Five opponent outside of league play. But two of the nonconference affairs are sneaky tough, and three Pac-12 road games are daunting.
USC
O/U total: 10 wins
Home games (seven): San Jose State, Nevada, Stanford, Arizona, Utah, Washington, UCLA
Road games (five): ASU, Colorado, Notre Dame, Cal, Oregon
Our pick: Under 10
Comment: The Hotline doesn't pick pushes, so a 10-2 finish for the Trojans isn't an option. Is 11-1 more likely than 9-3? Not in our assessment, especially with Oregon and Washington back on the schedule, plus the trip to South Bend.
Utah
O/U total: 8.5 wins
Home games (seven): Florida, Weber State, UCLA, Cal, Oregon, ASU, Colorado
Road games (five): Baylor, Oregon State, USC, Washington, Arizona
Our pick: Under 8.5
Comment: The schedule is simply too difficult with two rugged home games (Florida and Oregon), plus the brutal lineup of road trips (Waco, Corvallis, L.A. and Seattle). We rarely bet against Kyle Whittingham. Meet the exception.
Washington
O/U total: 9 wins
Home games (seven): Boise State, Tulsa, Cal, Oregon, ASU, Utah, WSU
Road games (five): Michigan State, Arizona, Stanford, USC, Oregon State
Our pick: Over 9
Comment: The Huskies are a playoff team in our estimation, which means finishing no worse than 11-1 and winning the conference title. USC's presence adds weight and spectacle to the schedule, but the trip to East Lansing is enormous.
Washington State
O/U total: 6.5 wins
Home games (six): Wisconsin, Northern Colorado, Oregon State, Arizona, Stanford, Colorado
Road games (six): Colorado State, UCLA, Oregon, ASU, Cal, Washington
Our pick: Over 6.5
Comment: We went back and forth on WSU's total — admittedly, the oddsmakers have set a perfect number. The home lineup is soft enough to create the Over opportunity as long as the Cougars either beat Wisconsin (again) or win at CSU.
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Jon Wilner has been covering college sports for decades and is an AP Top 25 football and basketball voter as well as a Heisman Trophy voter. He was named Beat Writer of the Year in 2013 by the Football Writers Association of America for his coverage of the Pac-12, won first place for feature writing in 2016 in the Associated Press Sports Editors writing contest and is a five-time APSE honoree. You can follow him on Twitter @WilnerHotline or send an email at jwilner@bayareanewsgroup.com.
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