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PROVO — The program's first-ever win over Stanford won't significantly upgrade BYU's season, but another loss will cement the only realistic conclusion.
For the Cougars to put any type of positive spin on the regular season, they must win the final game on the road. Even at that, considering BYU returned a host of talent off a 10-win team last year, finishing at 7-5 is nothing to celebrate.
But accounting for the opponent, a 6-6 record would be a disaster. Stanford, which is 1-8 in the Pac-12, already has finished with its worst conference record since the horrendous 1-11 season in 2006.
Taking over for Jim Harbaugh when the conference expanded to 12 teams in 2011, David Shaw coached the Cardinal to three Rose Bowl appearances in his first five seasons. But excluding the shortened 2020 COVID six-game schedule, his teams have gone a combined 10-25 over the last three full seasons.
The Cardinal have no momentum coming into the game and have lost four consecutive games by a combined score of 159-54. This team is a far cry from the program that averaged 10 wins per season from 2010-17, with four top-10 rankings in the Associated Press poll.
Falling in line with losing, the fan base has grown apathetic to the point the university has offered free tickets to the final two home games of the season in hopes of improving the season-ticket base for next season. Given the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, with many students gone, the stadium could have more BYU fans from the Bay Area attending the game.
In short, the Cougars had better not lose.
"A lot of talent," BYU coach Kalani Sitake said in describing Stanford, adding, "Coach Shaw is one of the best out there."
Coach-speak at its finest, for sure. Not that Sitake has any other choice at this point.
BYU has not fallen nearly as hard as Stanford, but the program is also seeking any kind of momentum going into the offseason. Finishing with a four-game winning streak, which would include the upcoming bowl game against a to-be-determined opponent, could begin to heal some of the wounds of a disappointing season.
After BYU went a combined 21-4 the last two seasons, expectations ran high when training camp opened in August. Aside from running back Tyler Allgeier, who now plays for the Atlanta Falcons, the Cougars were confident with the returning linemen and skill players on offense.
The 50-point outburst in the season-opening win at South Florida confirmed the excitement level, which then soared with the overtime win over then-ninth ranked Baylor that ended with the crowd storming the field at LaVell Edwards Stadium. A blowout loss at Oregon dented the anticipation, but the Cougars still ended September at 4-1.
The bottom fell out in October, during which they lost all four games. The Cougars are awful on defense and allowed 52 points to Arkansas and then were embarrassed on both sides off the football in a non-competitive loss at Liberty.
At 4-5, with bowl eligibility in doubt, BYU pulled off a surprise in winning at Boise State. A lackluster performance against Utah Tech last week was enough to qualify for the postseason.
With entrance into the competitive Big 12 starting next season, BYU desperately wanted something positive going into the offseason. As it is, the program likely needs an influx of better talent qualify for a bowl next season.
"We had a little rough patch there for four or five games. We all know that," said linebacker Ben Bywater. "For us to finish off strong, it would be huge for us going into the offseason and just knowing we've got the Big 12 next year. But, hey, we finish off the year strong, we did what we had to do, we got bowl eligible."
