Pick Six Previews: Look for another dominant Utah performance against Stanford

SALT LAKE CITY — Utah got back to its roots with a physical beatdown of Arizona in a 45-20 win in a rainy Rice-Eccles Stadium Saturday night. The Utes pushed their record to 7-2 overall and 5-1 in Pac-12 play, which is becoming a four-team race for the two title game spots.

The offense welcomed back starting quarterback Cam Rising after the last-second lineup scratch last game. It was Rising's lowest pass production of the season (13-of-25, 151 yards, one touchdown) but that was due in part to the success of the rushing attack.

Utah dominated the line of scrimmage, and aside from Jaylen Dixon's fly sweep touchdown, the majority of Utah's 55 carries came between the tackles. Converted quarterback Ja'Quinden Jackson led with 97 yards, Jaylon Glover and Micah Bernard combined for 117 more, and we also saw the debut of true freshman quarterback Nate Johnson.

The high school track star added two touchdowns out of a "wildcat" red zone package and is another wild card that opposing coordinators must now plan for in the coming weeks.

Morgan Scalley's defense disrupted quarterback Jayden de Laura all night. While the stat sheet only shows three sacks, the pass rush swarmed and forced de Laura to work magic acts to avoid sacks. After Arizona gained 158 yards in the first quarter, the Utes defense settled in and allowed just 91 yards in the second quarter, 53 yards in the third, and 19 yards in the fourth before the backups came in on the final drive.

Utah gets another home night game on Saturday (8 p.m. MST, ESPN), and this one is set for senior night. Stanford enters with a 3-6 overall record but is just 1-12 vs. the Pac-12 since last October. Utah needs the win to stay in contention for the Pac-12 championship game, which scrapped the traditional North/South divisions to go with a "No. 1 vs. No. 2" title format.

Game Grader

(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)

3-year average 2019-21: Utah 68.9 (7th) | Stanford 27.3 (61st of 66 Power Five)
2021 season: Utah 69.5 (7th) | Stanford 37.9 (54th of 66 Power Five)
2022 season: Utah 68.7 (12th) | Stanford 31.3 (58th of 66 Power Five)

Utah rose two spots in 2022 Game Grader from No. 14 to No. 12 after its 25-point win over Arizona. It is a crowded upper-tier of the Pac-12, and we'll see the top four teams play each other in virtually a semifinals round next Saturday. Utah is currently fourth among the group, behind No. 8 USC, No. 9 Oregon, and No. 11 UCLA in Game Grader.

Stanford checks in at No. 58, which is second-worst in the Pac-12 (Colorado is last). Worse than the 1-12 skid in Pac-12 games is just how bad Stanford is losing. Over the 12 losses, Stanford has an average margin of loss of 20 points and is outgained by 180 yards per game.

Stanford with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)

Stanford offense: 58th of 66 Power Five
Utah defense: 42nd of 66 Power Five

More shocking than their conference losing streak is their weakness in the trenches. This program reached all-time heights in the 2010s with the mantra of "run the ball, stop the run." But over the past two seasons they have failed to do either. Last year, Stanford had the worst yards per carry margin (offense and defense combined) in America.

In the conference opener against USC, they shocked everyone with a new-look offense that featured a slow-mesh RPO. The quarterback holds the mesh long with the back, who essentially shuffles his feet in place until the defense commits one way or the other. Wake Forest has had tremendous success with this offensive style.

After the initial shock wore off, Stanford struggled in both run and pass. Quarterback Tanner McKee is the second-worst quarterback in the league in the all-encompassing QB rating, while the rushing offense is also second-worst in yards per carry.

When I spoke with head coach David Shaw in preparation for my annual season preview magazine, he seemed confident the experienced offensive line was ready to turn a corner, but they currently sit at just 53rd (of 66 Power Five) in both Pick Six Previews' OL run push and pass protection metrics.

Utah with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)

Utah offense: 30th of 66 Power Five
Stanford defense: 58th of 66 Power Five

The storyline for Utah's offense has been the never-ending string of injuries to its skill players. While it appeared that Rising was back to near 100% health, both Jackson and Glover left the game with apparent injuries and are questionable Saturday. A third back, Chris Curry, is done for the year along with the do-it-all tight end Brant Kuithe. Utah's other star tight end Dalton Kincaid missed last game and is still questionable.

Credit the coaching staff and the roster for their "next man up" mentality. Third tight end Thomas Yassmin had two catches — one was a long run and the other a touchdown — has stepped up into the starting lineup. Jackson took on the position change, and Devaughn Vele has emerged as the No. 1 target on the outside.

Look for Utah to establish its run game similar to last week against Arizona. The Utes rushed for a season-high 306 rushing yards, and it wouldn't surprise me to see them eclipse the 300-yard mark again here.

Game prediction

Utah has won four of the five meetings since joining the Pac-12. Last year's matchup was the 52-7 blowout in Utah's favor, which featured the most lopsided first half in any FBS game since 2015 (Utah was +412 yards at half). Look for another dominant performance as the Utes gear up for the big Oregon test next Saturday.

No. 13 Utah 37 | Stanford 13

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