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PROVO — All eyes were on the BYU defense after giving up 52 points and 644 yards to Arkansas.
The defense got national attention for the peculiar substitution pattern that sometimes resulted in a full hockey-style "line change" with all 11 defenders cycling on and off the field.
And for the first quarter against Liberty last Saturday, the defensive issues were temporarily masked behind a 14-3 BYU lead. From there, the Cougars were shut out and held to just 147 yards in the final three quarters, and the levy broke on defense.
Liberty rolled up 38 unanswered points and 547 yards to mark the third straight 500+ yard game by BYU's defense. Liberty head coach Hugh Freeze dubbed it their "biggest home game in school history," and they certainly played like it.
For context, before the three-game streak of 500+ yards, BYU's defense allowed 500+ yards just three times in the prior 62 games dating back to 2017.
Head coach Kalani Sitake announced he would be taking over the defensive coordinator role going forward, a move similar to the one made by former head coach Bronco Mendenhall. Some changes or new approaches were needed after the October slide, which has shifted the entire outlook for BYU's 2022 season and has sunk the defense down to No. 49 (of 66 Power Five) in Pick Six Previews' opponent-adjusted percentiles.
BYU entered October with a 4-1 record, a Top 20 national ranking, and dreams of a double-digit season. They now leave the month with three straight losses, a collapsing defense, a .500 record, and bowl season now in question. BYU hopes to avoid a winless October as East Carolina comes to Provo for a Friday night battle (6 p.m. MDT, ESPN2).
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
3-year average 2019-21: BYU 61.0 (16th of 66 Power Five) | East Carolina 36.5 (Power Five equivalent: 59th of 66)2021 season: BYU 58.1 (24th) | East Carolina 42.1 (Power Five equivalent: 49th of 66)2022 season: BYU 44.3 (46th) | East Carolina 53.6 (Power Five equivalent: 32nd of 66)
The loss to Liberty dropped BYU six spots to No. 46 in 2022 Game Grader — down a full 20 spots since the start of October. The magnitude of the loss (-27 point margin & -300 yard margin) was more shocking than the loss itself.
East Carolina opened the season with a near-upset over preseason No. 14 NC State, lost an overtime game to Navy, and lost to ranked Tulane. But in seven of their eight contests, they have won the yardage margin and are fresh off a 21-point blowout of a strong UCF team. ECU is a non-AQ team but would check in at 32nd (of 66 Power Five) in 2022 Game Grader.
East Carolina with the ball
(Yards per play, national rankings out of 131 FBS teams)
East Carolina offense: 6.6 yards per play, 22nd in FBSBYU defense: 5.9 yards per play allowed, 96th in FBS
Holten Ahlers is currently second in the AAC in the all-encompassing QB rating stat and leads a Top 25 offense. East Carolina has gone with pass-heavy play-calling this year, attempting passes on 53% of offensive snaps. That may not sound high, but it is in the Top 15 pass-heavy ratios this season.
When they do choose to run the ball, it is equally effective. Keaton Mitchell is the AAC's leading rusher with 687 yards on the season, and ECU is third in the conference on a per-carry basis (4.9 yards).
This dynamic offense will present even more challenges than Liberty dealt the BYU defense on Saturday. The transition to a Sitaki-run defense could certainly use a bye week to get everything tweaked and refocused, but BYU is not afforded that luxury until after next week's game.
BYU's defense has been "multiple" the past few seasons in terms of base formation, but Saturday they were operating mostly out of a 4-2-5 base. Maybe some formation consistency — and player personnel consistency — can start to build some efficiencies for this side of the ball. They need it, as the defense is in total free fall.
BYU with the ball
(Yards per play, national rankings out of 131 FBS teams)
BYU offense: 6.5 yards per play, 24th in FBSEast Carolina defense: 5.9 yards per play allowed, 102nd in FBS
To compensate for the defense, BYU's offense has been asked to play near-perfect football. And up until the second quarter on Saturday, quarterback Jaren Hall had been pretty close to that high threshold. But that game ended up as Hall's worst game of his BYU career: the first game under 50% completion and lowest QB rating in his 20 starts.
BYU finished with just three third-down conversions on 11 attempts, and two of those came late in the game when the score was out of reach. They need to stay ahead of the chains and win first down. That is easier said than done, however, as the running back depth took another hit. Starter Christopher Brooks is ruled out with a hamstring injury, and Jackson McChesney is also questionable. East Carolina is second in the AAC in rushing defense.
Those factors would suggest that BYU go pass-heavy Friday night, especially considering East Carolina's pass defense is a weakness and ranks 115th in FBS (out of 131).
Game prediction
These teams have similar strengths and weaknesses from a stats perspective, but it is undeniable that East Carolina comes into Friday night's game with stronger momentum than BYU. Look for both teams to have success through the air, but for ECU to have the edge against a rebuilding BYU defense.
East Carolina 40 | BYU 38
