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SALT LAKE CITY — Utah is coming off the midseason bye week with a 5-2 record and a No. 14 national rank. While their playoff aspirations are likely off the table, the remaining team goals are still in play, namely: defending their Pac-12 title, and returning to the Rose Bowl.
Those goals got a significant boost as the Utes rallied to a dramatic 43-42 win over then-undefeated USC two Saturdays ago in Salt Lake City. USC led the game for 53 minutes and the game was tied for six minutes, but Utah led when it counted: the final 30 seconds.
The game ended up in a shootout with two ace quarterbacks and two creative play designers battling it out.
Utah's decision to go for the winning 2-point conversion attempt, rather than kick the extra point to force overtime, was courageous in itself. But as Cam Rising stepped up in the pocket and surged into the end zone, it elevated from a courageous decision to an all-time Rice-Eccles moment for Utah football.
That head-to-head victory may go a long way in determining who faces off in the Pac-12 championship, which scrapped the traditional North/South divisions to go with a "No. 1 vs. No. 2" title format.
Last week, given the bye week, I wrote an article compiling Utah's midseason ranks in many of my advanced stats. The most shocking numbers came on the defensive side of the ball, with Utah rated well below where you'd expect to see them on an annual basis.
On Thursday night in Pullman (8 p.m. MDT, FS1), the Utah defense gets an opportunity to get back on the right track against one of the lowest-rated offensive lines in pass protection.
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
3-Year Average 2019-21: Utah 68.9 (7th) | Washington State 44.2 (47th of 66 Power Five)2021 Season: Utah 69.5 (7th) | Washington State 49.7 (39th of 66 Power Five)2022 Season: Utah 67.5 (12th) | Washington State 48.8 (41st of 66 Power Five)
The USC win elevated Utah five spots in 2022 Game Grader from No. 17 to No. 12. At the halfway point, Utah is lower than my 2022 projection of No. 4 nationally, but there are plenty of opportunities to keep rising.
Washington State checks in at No. 41 in 2022 Game Grader, which is on par with their 2021 grade, as well as their three-year average. The Cougars defeated Wisconsin for the program's first ranked win since 2018, then led Oregon by 12 points in the final five minutes before a late-game collapse. They are riding a two-game losing streak, with both coming by two touchdowns (USC by 16 and Oregon State by 14).
Washington State with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)
Washington State offense: 39th of 66 Power FiveUtah defense: 50th of 66 Power Five
They call it the Coug Raid offense. Offensive coordinator Eric Morris had great success at the FCS level building upstart program Incarnate Word into a playoff team. Washington State got the package deal, with Morris and his dynamic quarterback Cam Ward both moving up to The Palouse.
This blends some of Mike Leach's air raid pass concepts with modern run, pass, option concepts, and more dynamic personnel groupings. In their biggest games this season, the Cougars used a heavy dose of screen passes; and if the defense only placed five players in the box, they were not afraid to run the ball between the tackles.
Leading running back Nakia Watson was key in their win over Wisconsin (his former team) but is now sidelined with an undisclosed injury.
There have been some growing pains for the pass offense, as Ward ranks ninth in the Pac-12 in yards per attempt and seventh in the all-encompassing QB rating.
The Washington State offensive line rates in the bottom five nationally in my Sack Rate pass protection stat with 26 sacks allowed in seven games. This is a huge opportunity for Utah to unlock the pass rush, which has been uncharacteristically absent this season at a school referred to as "Sack Lake City." Look for some of the younger defenders to take a step forward with the extra week of prep and development.
Utah with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)
Utah offense: 19th of 66 Power FiveWashington State defense: 18th of 66 Power Five
It will be strength vs. strength when Utah has the ball. Rising is ranked in the Top 15 (Power Five) in QB rating and has had to shoulder even more responsibility with the offensive play-calling shifting more to the pass game.
Look for even more of a pass-first approach by Utah for three reasons. Starting running back Tavion Thomas, who has more carries than the next two backs combined, is rumored to be out; Micah Bernard and Jaylon Glover will share carries, and while both are great runners the offense will miss their workhorse back.
Further, the Washington State defense is elite against the run, placing No. 2 in the Pac-12 in rushing yards per carry. Their relative weakness is against the pass, with a below-average rank in opponent QB rating.
These factors point to Rising rolling up one of his bigger passing games of the season, and for tight end Dalton Kincaid to pick up where he left off last game — nearly breaking records for the position.
Game prediction
Utah has won three straight against the Cougars — all by double-digit margins and an average win of 18 points. Look for this one to be much closer.
I expect both offenses to have success, but for Utah to win a shootout by winning the turnover margin, and their veteran quarterback sealing the win in the fourth quarter.
Utah 37 | Washington State 31
