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SALT LAKE CITY — I launched Pick Six Previews in 2012, and now after twelve seasons covering the entire Power Five landscape, this 2023 Utah team was likely the most injured I've ever seen.
In November, KSL.com's Josh Furlong counted an astounding 33 players from the Utah two-deep (22 starters and backups) roster that had missed some time due to injuries. Head coach Kyle Whittingham admitted he'd "never, never seen anything like it."
Utah entered the final year of the Pac-12 as the two-time defending champions and had their eyes on a three-peat. One by one, their star players, starters, and backups fell out of the lineup, and eventually the roster wore down completely in November. They still managed to field an elite defense, but the broken offense held the team back from contending for a spot in Las Vegas.
Before looking ahead to 2024 — and Utah's move to the new 16-team Big 12 — I'll review how the Utes ranked in several of my metrics at Pick Six Previews.
Game Grader: 35th of 70 Power Five (compared to 10th in 2022)
Game Grader measures statistical dominance and adjusts for opponent strength. After three top-10 finishes in the past four seasons, Utah fell all the way to 35th in Power Five. This marks their lowest grade since 2014.
Utah opened with a 6-1 record and a top-20 ranking in Game Grader, but closed on a 2-4 skid with a bottom 20 ranking over that span. Their best individual Game Grade of the season came against Arizona State, who they defeated 55-3, outgained by 430 yards, and suffocated their offense to just 83 total yards — ASU's fewest in a game since 1946.
Offensive Percentiles: 65th of 70 Power Five (compared to 26th in 2022)
When the "total offense" stat is presented in yards per game, it doesn't tell the whole story: 500 yards gained against Georgia is much different than 500 yards gained against Vanderbilt; additionally, 500 yards gained on 80 snaps is less impressive than 500 gained on 50 snaps.
Instead, my Offensive Percentiles evaluate on a per-play basis, and also adjust for opponent (defense) strength. Two-time champion quarterback Cam Rising missed the opener, and was labeled as "week-to-week" as he rehabbed his Rose Bowl injury from last January. Finally, the staff ruled him out for the full season; and while there were countless other costly injuries, it all starts under center.
Without Rising, and without a full array of offensive weapons, the offense was unable to stretch the field vertically in the pass game. Becoming too one-dimensional, the offense also failed to get their usual run push, and they had to resort to Sione Vaki — a converted safety and do-it-all Wildcat — to provide a dynamic spark.
Defensive Percentiles: 19th of 70 Power Five (compared to 33rd in 2022)
The defensive version of the above metric shows another strong season for defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley's unit. A young defense in 2022 grew into a veteran 2023 unit and surged into the top 20 of almost all of my stat categories. They faced their run of injuries too, but at full strength, this defense was reminiscent of the great 2019 and 2021 squads.
Mark Harlan: 2023 season 'might have been the best coaching job' of Whittingham's career
Utah athletic director Mark Harlan said the 2023 season may have been Kyle Whittingham's best coaching of his career.Offensive Line Run Push: 66th of 133 FBS teams (compared to 4th in 2022)
This stat takes the normal yards per carry number and focuses in on the opportunities created by the offensive line within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Beyond 10 yards, you could argue those yards are more earned by the back's playmaking ability in the open field. Utah was the only program in America to post consecutive top-5 finishes in 2021 and 2022, but the 2023 line collapsed to a middle-of-the-pack 66th ranking.
Offensive Line Pass Protection: 89th of 133 FBS teams (compared to 13th in 2022)
Utah allowed 25 sacks out of 328 pass attempts. That 7.6% rate is 89th in FBS and marks a major downgrade from their past two offensive lines: third nationally in 2021 and 13th in 2022.
Explosive Rushing (Offense): 90th of 133 FBS teams (compared to 20th in 2022)
Utah placed 11th here in 2021, and then rode a late-season surge by converted quarterback Ja'Quinden Jackson to again finish in the top 20 in 2022. With the full stable of running backs returning, Utah was projected to make it three in a row, but it never clicked in 2023. A domino effect of Rising's injury was that opposing defenses were able to stack the box and protect against breakthrough, long-yardage runs.
Yards per carry (Defense): 9th of 133 FBS teams (compared to 59th in 2022)
Pick your metric — Utah was undoubtedly one of the nation's best rushing defenses of 2023. They allowed 3.1 yards per carry (ninth nationally) and just 83 rushing yards per game (fourth). In my opponent-adjusted, per-play metric, which accounts for the relative strengths of the opposing rushing offenses, Utah placed eighth of 70 Power Five defenses.
Opponent QB Rating (Defense): 38th of 133 FBS teams (compared to 85th in 2022)
I prefer this stat when discussing passing defense because it puts the stats into a per-play perspective. Giving up 300 passing yards may sound below-average, but against an Air Raid offense that attempts 60 passes that game, it becomes impressive. Here in the all-encompassing pass defense measure, Utah improved nearly 50 spots from the 2022 team.
Not shown here, but Utah's secondary continued their nation-best streak of seasons with a pick six; 2023 marked 20 straight seasons — all the way back to when Morgan Scalley was playing.
