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PROVO — BYU made the long-awaited step up to the Power Five level by joining the new-look Big 12 and faced some expected growing pains in their inaugural season.
The transition up from the non-AQ level — or in BYU's case, independence — wore down all four newcomers: BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF went 4-24 combined against the legacy Big 12 teams, and all four finished with overall losing records.
While some hurdles were expected in 2023, it is still shocking to see BYU finish with a losing record (5-7, 2-7 Big 12). This marks just the second losing season in the past 19 years for BYU, but the hope is that they weathered the transition storm and will continue building up a Power Five caliber roster to compete better in 2024 and beyond.
Before moving into spring ball, the post-spring transfer round, and fall camp, I'll review how the Cougars ranked in several of my 2023 metrics at Pick Six Previews.
Game Grader: 63rd of 70 Power Five (compared to 51st in 2022)
Game Grader measures statistical dominance and adjusts for opponent strength. Over the first seven games, BYU was ranked in the middle-of-the-pack but then absolutely collapsed down the stretch. Their final five-game sample ranked second worst in Power Five, and pulled the season average down to the bottom 10.
The 2022 season was BYU's second lowest-rated season of its independence era, but 2023 fell even lower.
Offensive Percentiles: 69th of 70 Power Five (compared to 24th in 2022)
When the "total offense" stat is presented in yards per game, it doesn't tell the whole story: 500 yards gained against Georgia is much different than 500 yards gained against Vanderbilt; additionally, 500 yards gained on 80 snaps is less impressive than 500 gained on 50 snaps.
Instead, my Offensive Percentiles evaluate on a per-play basis, and also adjust for opponent (defense) strength. Not only did BYU snap its three-year streak in the top 25, they fell all the way to the bottom of Power Five.
This 2023 offense placed behind everyone except the much-maligned Iowa offense who had to install a minimum points per game clause in the coordinator's contract — which was not achieved.
Defensive Percentiles: 48th of 70 Power Five (compared to 46th in 2022)
The defensive version of the above metric shows a minimal improvement for BYU year-over-year. The defense collapsed in the middle of the 2022 season forcing head coach Kalani Sitake to make a coordinator change.
Jay Hill came in with a new scheme, a return to fundamentals, and supposedly more blitzes and pressures. When the dust settled, BYU graded out almost exactly the same in my overall defensive percentiles. The pass defense improved, the run defense fell, and this all netted out to another below average statistical season.
Offensive Line Pass Protection: 32nd of 133 FBS teams (compared to 12th in 2022)
The 2022 offensive line was a veteran unit that excelled in both run push and pass protection; and despite some roster turnover, I called for another strong front in 2023. That prediction was only half correct (if that) as they placed above average in pass protection but failed to get anything going on the ground.
BYU placed 32nd nationally in sack rate by allowing just 19 sacks out of 396 pass attempts (4.8%).
Offensive Line Run Push: 123rd of 133 FBS teams (compared to 19nd in 2022)
This stat takes the normal yards per carry number and focuses in on the opportunities created by the offensive line within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Beyond 10 yards, you could argue those yards are more earned by the back's playmaking ability in the open field.
This is the stat that broke the offensive line, and the entire offense overall. The line failed to get any run push at all, placed in the national bottom 10 here, and snapped a three-year streak of top 20 performances from 2020-22. With the run game completely neutralized, the offense became far too one-dimensional and unable to strike explosive plays.
Explosive Offense: 90th of 133 FBS teams (compared to 22nd in 2022)
As I just mentioned, the run game's failures ended up impacting everything, including BYU's ability to hit on long-yard, explosive plays. This is another three-year top-25 streak that was snapped in 2023.
Zach Wilson and Jaren Hall's dynamic vertical passing — opened up thanks to an effective, balanced run game — helped BYU excel in this category. The 2023 unit failed to click at all.
Negative Play Rate (Defense): 129th of 133 FBS teams (compared to 130th in 2022)
For years, BYU placed at the bottom of this style metric. Given their approach, BYU rarely blitzed more than three or four rushers, and accordingly did not make plays in the backfield. Negative Play Rate measures the frequency of plays made behind the line of scrimmage (sacks and tackles for loss) in proportion to the number of snaps faced.
But with the coordinator change heading into the 2023 season, I expected Hill to bring more blitzes and pressures, and for the unit to soar up the rankings here. Shockingly, even with the style change, they remained dead last in Power Five.
Opponent QB Rating (Defense): 59th of 133 FBS teams (compared to 112th in 2022)
I prefer this stat when discussing passing defense, because it puts the stats into a per-play perspective. Giving up 300 passing yards may sound below average, but against an Air Raid offense that attempts 60 passes that game, it becomes impressive.
Here, in the all-encompassing pass defense measure, BYU finished 59th nationally. That may not stand out at face value, but consider that BYU was 112th last year and this was their most improved defensive stat category by far. In fact, this was most improved pass defense in the entire Big 12 year over year.
