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The Pac-12 hasn't placed a team in the College Football Playoff in six years. The conference's New Year's Six drought, through the at-large process, is almost as lengthy.
Both streaks — or only one — could end this year.
The CFP remains a possibility, particularly for the Los Angeles schools.
So is missing the CFP again but sending a non-champion to the Cotton Bowl, which is part of the New Year's Six and has two at-large slots available this season.
One of them will be reserved for the highest-ranked Group of Five team.
The other could go to a Pac-12 team that finishes with one or two losses but doesn't win the conference title — yet another potential benefit to having a top-heavy conference.
Over the eight years of the New Year's Six format, the Pac-12 has only produced two at-large teams: Arizona went to the Fiesta Bowl in 2014, and Washington followed three years later.
Because of the selection process, the Pac-12 could be better off having its second-highest-ranked team not advance to the conference title game.
If the playoff isn't an option, then a loss in Las Vegas could eliminate that team from the New Year's Six pool.
It's one more piece to a fluid but fascinating stretch run.
To the bowl projections …
Rose Bowl
Team: Oregon (5-1/3-0)Home games remaining (three): UCLA, Washington, UtahRoad games remaining (three): Cal, Colorado, Oregon StateComment: The Hotline hasn't been wrong about anything in two or three minutes, but it's difficult to envision Oregon receiving a playoff invitation — even at 12-1 and carrying a Pac-12 title. The Georgia loss was simply too damaging.
Cotton Bowl
Team: USC (6-1/4-1)Home (three): Cal, Colorado, Notre DameRoad (two): Arizona, UCLAComment: Our current projections call for USC to finish third in the Pac-12 race but return to the Cotton, where the Trojans lost to Ohio State in the 2017 season.
Alamo Bowl
Team: UCLA (6-0/3-0)Home (three): Stanford, Arizona, USCRoad (three): Oregon, Arizona State, CalComment: No team has a wider range of landing spots than the Bruins, who could reach the playoff or slide to Las Vegas or El Paso, in part because the Holiday wants no part of them.
Holiday Bowl
Team: Utah (5-2/3-1)Home (two): Arizona, StanfordRoad (three): WSU, Oregon, ColoradoComment: One more loss and the Utes are out of the New Year's Six chase. And because they have played in the Alamo and Holiday bowls recently, they could slide to Las Vegas if a return to the Granddaddy isn't their destiny.
Las Vegas Bowl
Team: Washington (5-2/2-2)Home (two): Oregon State, ColoradoRoad (three): Cal, Oregon, WSUComment: As long as the Huskies get to the high side of .500 in conference play, Las Vegas is an option, How about Mississippi State (and Mike Leach) as the opponent? That might generate some interest.
Sun Bowl
Team: Oregon State (5-2/2-2)Home (three): Cal, Colorado, OregonRoad (two): Washington, ASUComment: The Beavers are a postseason lock after the victory over WSU. It's only a matter of how high they climb — and that could hinge on the outcome of the Nov. 4 duel in Husky Stadium.
LA Bowl
Team: Washington State (4-3/1-3)Home (three): Utah, ASU, WashingtonRoad (two): Stanford, ArizonaComment: The Cougars need two wins to qualify and will be favored, or a slight underdog, in four games. We like their chances (although not as much as we did a few weeks ago).
Non-qualifier
Team: Arizona (3-4/1-3)Home (three): USC, Washington State, ASURoad (two): Utah, UCLAComment: While Arizona's position here remains unchanged, its underlying odds have deteriorated substantially. Winning zero more games is just as likely as winning three more.
Non-qualifier
Team: Arizona State (2-4/1-2)Home (two): UCLA, Oregon StateRoad (four): Stanford, Colorado, WSU, ArizonaComment: Increasing the victory total by 50% this week — from two to three — would improve ASU's prospects for the postseason by an equivalent amount. Win at Stanford, and the math gets easier.
Non-qualifier
Team: Cal (3-3/1-2)Home (four): Washington, Oregon, Stanford, UCLARoad (two): USC, Oregon StateComment: The Hotline envisions a scenario in which Cal misses a bowl berth by one game and Colorado only wins one game. And we can't be the only ones expecting that end-game.
Non-qualifier
Team: Colorado (1-5/1-2)Home (three): ASU, Oregon, UtahRoad (three): Oregon State, USC, WashingtonComment: The floor for CU is now 1-11, but the ceiling is 2-10.
Non-qualifier
Team: Stanford (2-4/0-4)Home (three): ASU, WSU, Brigham YoungRoad (three): UCLA, Utah, CalComment: We're saying there's a chance, but only because we've actually watched ASU, WSU, BYU and Cal play multiple times.
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Jon Wilner has been covering college sports for decades and is an AP Top 25 football and basketball voter as well as a Heisman Trophy voter. He was named Beat Writer of the Year in 2013 by the Football Writers Association of America for his coverage of the Pac-12, won first place for feature writing in 2016 in the Associated Press Sports Editors writing contest and is a five-time APSE honoree. You can follow him on Twitter @WilnerHotline or send an email at jwilner@bayareanewsgroup.com.
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