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SALT LAKE CITY — The path to a Pac-12 South division title runs through Utah.
With four games left in the regular season, the red carpet is laid out for the Utes to claim their third division title in four seasons. Utah is favored in all four of its final contests, according to ESPN's Football Power Index, including a potential Pac-12 Championship precursor against No. 4 Oregon.
Even more, ESPN gives Utah a 95.2% chance to win the South division.
Although still not a guarantee, the path is simple for the Utes, who hold a one-game lead over the South's second-place team in Arizona State. UCLA and USC are still officially in contention for a division title but would need to win out (only one team can since they play each other) and still have some chaos take place above them.
If Utah wins all of its remaining games, there's no question the Utes will be playing on Dec. 3 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas against the North division winner, which currently favors Oregon. The Ducks sit inside the College Football Playoff committee's four-team playoff and has more at stake than a division title, but both go hand in hand for Oregon.
Utah's matchup against Oregon on Nov. 20 at Rice-Eccles Stadium becomes a pivotal game for both programs looking for a better postseason opportunity, though the weight is seemingly more heavy on the Ducks with playoff hopes on the line.
And while an undefeated ending to conference play for the Utes would be the ideal situation to lock up the race, the path is still favorable for Utah should it lose one or two of its remaining games.
(To see a how Utah can win the South in various scenarios, click on the flow chart image below to expand.)
If Utah goes 3-1 to finish the season for an overall 7-2 record in conference play, the Utes will win the division title — even if Arizona State wins out in its four remaining games. The Sun Devils would finish the season with a 7-2 conference record, but Utah holds the tiebreaker against Arizona State, UCLA and USC in head-to-head wins.
So what happens if Utah splits its remaining games? It's a little more nuanced but depends on Arizona State. If the Sun Devils win out in this scenario, they are crowned the division champs; but if they lose one game, it gives Utah the upper hand again. Utah, once again, wins the tiebreaker if both teams finish 6-3 on the season — and even if UCLA or USC finds a way to finish 6-3, too.
For its final 4 games:
— Josh Furlong (@JFurKSL) November 3, 2021
• @ Stanford: 67.6%
• @ Arizona: 91.0%
• v. No. 4 Oregon: 55.0%
• v. Colorado: 90.7%
Utah already has a 2-game lead over Arizona State, with two very winnable games. And the Utes control all the important tiebreakers.
The Pac-12 tiebreaker for three teams looks to head-to-head results among the three teams; and since Utah beat all three teams in contention, the South remains Utah's.
Simple, but not a guarantee.
And though not a guarantee, Utah's options become much easier with a win on Friday night against a 3-5 Stanford team. The Cardinal, though, have wins over USC and Oregon this season and could play the spoiler role again.
"The only thing that matters for us this week is trying to find a way to beat Stanford," Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham said. "We don't care where we're sitting in the standings — we certainly don't focus on it, that's probably a better term. We know they're a good football team — they've beaten USC, they've been Oregon — and so they're a team that can can play really good football.
"It's just this conference is such that you've got to be at your best every week or you're going to get beat."
Starting quarterback Cam Rising, who has led a resurgence on offense and lifted Utah to be a South division contender, said the team isn't focused on anything but "finishing the rest of the season off strong."
"We're making sure that we're in the right position that we want to be in and not not really focusing on anybody else, not worrying about what anybody else — just handling in house," Rising said.
Linebacker Devin Lloyd said the team's approach this week and every week until the season ends is to focus on going 1-0. The rest of the team's goals — a division title, a conference title, and a Rose Bowl appearance — will naturally follow if that happens.
"Just doing everything we can to prepare the right way to play our best against a good Stanford team," Lloyd said.
Utah controls its own destiny.
