SALT LAKE CITY — With the spreading of the delta variant, we may be on the brink of another large COVID-19 spike, Salt Lake County epidemiologist Annie George said Tuesday.

"(Fall) is the time of year when we see other respiratory viruses spread," she said during a meeting with KSL employees. "It's probably going to get worse before it gets better."

Intensive care units across Utah are bursting at the seams, and the percentage of cases that end up hospitalized are higher than they have ever been, even at the most recent peak before the vaccines were issued.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recently pushed a new masking policy this week after scientists made a discovery based on a massive COVID-19 outbreak in Cape Cod: Vaccinated people who become infected with the virus can spread it just as easily as unvaccinated people. Authorities said that three-quarters of the nearly 900 people infected in that outbreak were vaccinated. The policy stated that vaccinated people should mask indoors.

The level of the virus in a person's system is called a viral load. The viral load with the delta variant is equally as bad in both vaccinated and unvaccinated people, which means they can equally spread the virus, but it doesn't generally stay in a vaccinated person's system as long, George said.

Responding to the argument that the Cape Cod cluster indicates that the vaccines aren't effective, she issued a reminder that vaccines are not meant to be a guaranteed solution to prevent COVID-19 infections; they were geared more toward keeping people from being hospitalized and dying. And she doesn't believe that the general public will see a vaccine breakthrough nearly that high because the Cape Cod outbreak had particular circumstances that lent itself to spreading.

Around 20% of reported COVID-19 cases in Salt Lake County are breakthrough cases, she added, but vaccinated people only make up 5% of hospitalizations.

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Many in the community have been talking about herd immunity, but George explained that breakthrough cases are higher in number because there aren't enough vaccinated people to achieve herd immunity. "We're a long ways from achieving that in the Salt Lake Valley," she said, because "herd immunity can only be achieved when upwards of 90% of people are vaccinated or have some natural immunity." Right now, that number is around 50%.

Because of these concerning numbers and the increasing number of children who are being hospitalized with COVID-19 from the delta variant, the issue of government mask mandates and masking in schools has been on the forefront of Utah politics. Dr. Angela Dunn, Salt Lake County Health Department executive director, announced Tuesday her intent to issue a mask order for school children under 12 in Salt Lake County.

In counties where masks are not mandated for children too young to be vaccinated, George recommends that parents keep their children safe by ensuring that everyone in their homes who are eligible gets vaccinated, wearing the optional masks to school, choosing KN95 masks that fit well over cloth masks, and staying away from people who are unvaccinated.

Although people who have gotten COVID-19 may have some natural immunity, she reminded people that "natural immunity is not a guarantee," in part, because scientists do not yet know how long it lasts and they don't believe it lasts as long as the vaccine. But adding a vaccine on top of natural immunity will create a significantly lower risk of contracting the virus, she added.

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With the lambda variant on the horizon, even expert epidemiologists like George are "more or less learning on the fly," she said. Scientists don't have a crystal ball, but they are watching the variants closely enough to know two things: that COVID-19 doesn't seem to be going anywhere and that masking helps.

"You just need to be smart about the number of cases and how easily spread it is. Being outside is better than being inside. We still need to be very careful," she said.

Regarding burnout among scientists trying to combat the misinformation, sometimes even within their own families, George said it "stresses me out to no end."

"We're all tired of working overtime at the health department. ... It's really hard. I'm the shy type that likes to stay in my office. But as frustrating as it is sometimes, I still hope that even if I change one person's mind, it's worth it. I haven't lost complete faith or hope in this yet, so we're still trying to fight the good fight."

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