The Stage is Set...

Saturday's win over Air Force helped BYU move up 3 spots in the new BCS Standings, to 14th (the Cougars jumped Michigan State, undefeated Ball State and North Carolina from last week). BYU's computer numbers went from tied for 19th to 15th.

For all of you expecting Utah's computer numbers to drop after playing 1-10 SDSU, surprise: the Utes remained 7th in the BCS and 4th in the computers. Turns out any damage the Aztecs might have done to Utah's SOS numbers was counter-balanced by Oregon State's big win over Cal and subsequent appearance in the BCS Standings, at 21st.

Utah's wins over Oregon State and TCU continue to represent the gap between the Utes and Cougars--a gap BYU will try to bridge on Saturday in Salt Lake City. But, will a win over Utah be enough to move the Cougars ahead of the Utes in the final BCS Standings? Perhaps so. But the fact that Utah's computer rankings held steady after beating a patsy are potentially telling, and support the premise that Utah could lose to BYU and still outpoint the Cougars--if not in the polls, then in the computer rankings.

It could be that I'm overestimating Utah's computer strength and underestimating the potential value of a BYU win over Utah, but I honestly have no idea how the computers are going to interpret the data after Saturday, and it leaves me wondering how the BCS Standings will reflect a BYU victory, should it occur. Consider that BYU's computer score improved from .210 to .400 after the Air Force win, but that Utah's computer score dropped only from .870 to .850, after having to take SDSU onto its schedule. Would BYU's win over Utah be enough to put BYU in the .800 range, and if so, would losing to BYU drop the Utes below .800?

I'm sure BYU fans would like nothing more than to know with certainty that a win over the Utes would assure BYU placement ahead of Utah next Sunday, but there's no way to KNOW that, so it creates the sort of unease that is unusual ahead of a rivalry game that has always been fairly "black and white" (or "blue and red," as is the case).

Again, Utah's win over Oregon State is the current "ace in the hole" for the Utes, and every game the Beavers win (they're undefeated since losing on the hill) only helps the Utes' cause. The Beavers are only two more wins away from a Rose Bowl berth, and such a run would likely secure a second BCS bid for the Pac-10. I don't see USC losing again, so unless Oregon State loses either at Arizona or home to Oregon, there will probably be only the one automatic bid available for non-BCS teams (2 bids for the SEC, 2 for the Big 12, 2 for the Pac-10, one each from the ACC, Big East and Big Ten).

Right now, Utah has the inside track for that bid, but a loss to BYU will give the bid to Boise State, should the Broncos finish the season undefeated. Should the Broncos falter (I think they can lose at Nevada) and BYU beat Utah, then it will be a 3-team race to finish highest in the BCS Standings. A one-loss Boise State team would immediately be dropped from the discussion due to the WAC's weak strength of schedule quotient, so if Boise State loses a game, it's down to Utah or BYU to take that one non-BCS bid--if only one is available

For there to be two non-BCS bids available would require the Pac-10 and Big East to join the ACC and Big East as one-bid leagues.

In the Pac-10, all it would take is for Oregon State to lose one more game. What if USC lost another game? Would the BCS honchos still like a two-loss USC team as an at-large selection? I think it's a moot point (since USC is likely to run the table), but if two-loss teams from the Big Ten are contending for BCS bowl berths, then why not a two-loss team from the Pac-10?

For the Big Ten to become a one-bid league, Ohio State (#10 BCS) has to lose to Michigan, and Michigan State (#15 BCS) has to lose to Penn State. In that instance, only Penn State would secure a BCS bid. If Ohio State wins (as expected), the two-loss Buckeyes would expect a BCS invite, along with either Big Ten co-champ Michigan State, or Big Ten co-champ Penn State. If the Buckeyes and Spartans win, Ohio State secures the Rose Bowl bid (by virtue of its win over Michigan State), while Michigan State hopes for a BCS bid as a two-loss at-large team. If the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions win, Penn State goes to the Rose Bowl by virtue of its win over Ohio State, while the two-loss Buckeyes wait for an at-large bid.

So, the way it stands, eight BCS Bowl spots are locked down right now (six league champs and "second bid" teams from the SEC and Big 12)--with USC, Oregon State, Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan State all contending to win "second bids" for their respective leagues.

Utah, Boise State and BYU are contending to be the "BCS Busters." Ball State (by virtue of its dropping behind one-loss BYU) is effectively out of the BCS discussion.

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Then there's this...let's assume for a moment that Boise State loses, BYU beats Utah, yet somehow the Cougars remain behind the Utes in the final BCS Standings. Imagine the uproar from fans and talking heads, angered that a top 14 team can beat another top 14 team on its home field, finish with the same record and still finish behind that team in the standings (I should reiterate that it's possible BYU indeed finishes ahead of Utah with a win on Saturday, but you just never know with the computer quotient being what it is...)

Now let's assume that one at-large BCS bid remains. The Big 12 and SEC have already secured their two bids, the Pac-10, Big Ten, ACC and Big East have their champion bids secured, the Utes are BCS-bound, and there's only one spot to fill. Let's say the only two teams eligible to fill that spot (by virtue of a 9-win season and Top 14 finish) are 10-2 Ohio State, and 11-1 BYU.

I'm sure the immediate reaction is, "well, the BCS takes the Buckeyes, of course," and that may indeed be true (Ohio State, after all, is a team from a BCS Conference, and this racket was designed to keep the money "in house"). But the Buckeyes will just have beaten a bad Michigan team at home, while the Cougars will have beaten a top 7 Utah team on the road.

And are you telling me the BYU fan base wouldn't travel well to the Fiesta Bowl, and the Fiesta folks wouldn't love to have the Cougars in town? BYU fans would sell out their ticket allotment in minutes. And are you telling me people wouldn't tune in to watch a "name" team like BYU with its high-powered offense, after what non-BCS teams with similar offenses have done in the past? Don't forget, the last couple of Ohio State teams to play in BCS bowl games have been blown out (albeit in national title games), and viewers could be ready for someone other than the Buckeyes to grab New Year's glory for a change.

Furthermore, what if Boise State wins out, captures the non-BCS automatic bid, but now it's Ohio State, BYU and Utah as the only three eligible teams contending for that one at-large spot. In that instance, its possible that the Utes drop out of that three-team competition by virtue of their late loss, and it's down to the Buckeyes and Cougars again, for that one spot. Remember, the BCS Standings come into play only in determining the non-BCS automatic bid; for at-large bids, all that is required is a top 14 finish and 9 wins, and from there, the bowls can choose whomever they want, for whatever reason.

All I'm saying is, don't count the Cougars out, if they get past the Utes on Saturday. A BCS bid would be a longshot at best, but they'd have a shot, and that's all you can ask for these days.

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For fun, here's a Mountain West "dream scenario":

Boise State loses,

Ohio State loses,

Michigan State loses,

Oregon State loses,

and BYU wins.

Both BYU and Utah go to BCS Bowl games.

Unlikely? Yes. Impossible? Hardly. Of course, the most unlikely result would be an Ohio State loss to Michigan, but stranger things have happened in sports (anyone see the Southwest Baptist-Utah basketball score Saturday?).

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