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SALT LAKE CITY — Now that the Republican field is in place in Utah’s most competitive races, for governor and for the 4th Congressional District seat held by the state’s only Democrat in Congress, Rep. Ben McAdams, it’s up to voters in June’s GOP primary to choose who’ll be on the ballot in November.
But it remains to be seen whether primary election winners are the same as the top picks by delegates to the Republican Party’s state convention on Saturday — Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox in the governor’s race and state Rep. Kim Coleman, R-West Jordan, in the 4th District.
“Republican voters in Utah have repeatedly made very different choices than the delegates, so I don’t think a win at the convention means that the primary will go the same way,” said Chris Karpowitz, co-director of the BYU Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy.
GOP delegates also added former House Speaker Greg Hughes to the list of gubernatorial contenders already on the primary ballot through gathering voter signatures: Cox, former Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. and former Utah GOP Chairman Thomas Wright.
In the 4th Congressional District race, the delegates sent Coleman to the ballot to join NFL player Burgess Owens, former KSL Newsradio host Jay Mcfarland and nonprofit CEO Trent Christensen, who had already qualified through signature gathering. Owens was also advanced by delegates to the ballot.
The GOP convention was held the same day Utah Democrats decided to send both McAdams and gubernatorial candidate Chris Peterson, a University of Utah law professor, directly to the November ballot. Both parties held virtual conventions due to the global coronavirus pandemic and used electronic ranked-choice voting.
In the past, Republican delegates have favored more conservative choices over candidates including Gov. Gary Herbert and Sen. Mitt Romney, who were both forced into primary elections they easily won after coming in second place at convention.
Polls for the Deseret News and the U.’s Hinckley Institute of Politics have repeatedly found that Cox and Huntsman are the favorites in the governor’s race, while two-thirds of likely GOP primary voters in the 4th District aren’t sure which congressional candidate they prefer.
Hinckley Institute Director Jason Perry said Republican primary voters have the “full menu” of political options in the governor’s race. However, he stopped short of predicting whether primary voters would choose Cox or Huntsman, both seen as more moderate candidates, over Hughes or Wright, who are viewed as more conservative.
“We will see where Republicans fall on that political spectrum in this primary, whether Utahns are more moderate or whether they are more conservative,” Perry said. “There are no absolutes in the political process (and) too many variables.”
Given the coronavirus pandemic, he said it’s hard to know how voters will respond this election cycle. Perry, who served as Huntsman’s economic development director, said he expects the big issue in the primary will be about what the state’s economic recovery looks like as the governor’s stay-at-home directive is eased.
Another complicating factor is that there are four candidates in the primary race that may end up determining the state’s next governor, since Utah hasn’t elected a Democrat for the office in 40 years. Republican Gov. Gary Herbert is not seeking reelection after serving for more than a decade.
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Former House Speaker Greg Hughes joined Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox, former Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. and former Utah GOP Chairman Thomas Wright on the GOP primary ballot.
“That absolutely affects the outcome. The analysis ends up being for right now what candidate pulls voters from what other candidate,” Perry said. “When you have a range of options ... the race will be impacted by who can start stealing votes from other candidates.”
Karpowitz said all of the candidates still in the governor’s race have considerable political experience.
“That so many well-known names are still in the mix shows just how coveted the governor’s office is. These four candidates cover essentially every ideological corner of the Republican Party and represent very different personalities and governing styles,” the political science professor said.
Cox’s support among the delegates was “impressive,” Karpowitz said, but delegates still advanced a more conservative candidate in Hughes. Huntsman, who had the endorsement of conservative Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, still trailed all but a perennial candidate in the eight-way delegate race.
Despite Huntsman’s “relatively lackluster performance at the convention,” Karpowitz said he still expects the former governor “to remain a popular choice among primary voters. Overall, primary voters will have a remarkably experienced and diverse set of choices, and I expect a vigorous campaign.”
Huntsman said he was not discouraged by the convention results and “absolutely” feels strong going into the primary. He described the convention process as “an aberration from anything we’ve seen,” relying on delegates chosen in 2018 rather than hold caucus-night elections and lacking face-to-face campaigning.
“You take it for what it is and stay focused on the primary,” he said. “I think the reflections of almost a half a million people will be a lot different than 3,000-plus (delegates). They will, I think, be concerned about leadership during the greatest crisis the state has seen in 100 years and who’s best equipped to manage the way forward.”
The twice-elected governor, who stepped down in 2009 to become U.S. ambassador to China and later served as U.S. ambassador to Russia, was the gubernatorial candidate most trusted to lead the state in a time of crisis in a recent Deseret News/Hinckley Institute poll, with the support of 25% of Utah voters.
Cox, the head of the governor’s COVID-19 task force, was the next most-trusted in the poll, at 13%. The lieutenant governor said he “feels very well-situated” after winning the most delegate votes at convention even after already qualifying for the ballot by gathering voter signatures.
“This has been unlike any other convention cycle that we’ve ever had. I haven’t been able to campaign much at all over the last five weeks,” Cox said, crediting his running mate, state Sen. Deidre Henderson, of Spanish Fork, and running a positive campaign countering the “toxicity” in politics for his convention victory.
Cox said he hopes to be more visible in what he acknowledged polls suggest will be a two-person primary race, but added, “all I know is, this is the job I was elected to do and I have to do that. I can only imagine how I would be criticized if I wasn’t doing my job.”
Hughes has targeted Cox, particularly for past critical statements about President Donald Trump, and said he’ll keep up the pressure in the primary. Hughes said he believes that in the “surreal times we’re in, delegates were looking at Spencer favorability because of the role he’s in,” even though he was unresponsive as a candidate.
Republican voters in Utah have repeatedly made very different choices than the delegates, so I don’t think a win at the convention means that the primary will go the same way.
–Chris Karpowitz, co-director of the BYU Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy
The Herbert administration’s efforts against the deadly virus may end up being seen as a “ready, fire, aim approach” by voters if Utahns are back to work in May, Hughes, an early Trump supporter, said. Voters will be looking for leadership, Hughes said, and “that’s not necessarily just a conservative or a moderate matter.”
Wright, who finished fourth in the delegate vote behind Salt Lake County Councilwoman Aimee Winder Newton, said some delegates had made it clear they “prioritized somebody who did not gather signatures” and that he was proud of his showing.
“It doesn’t always go the way you want,” Wright said.
Primary voters want a candidate “that has new ideas. I got the sense in the convention that there is a good segment of the Republican population that is ready for a change,” he said. “I’m the new person in the race. I’m the outsider running against three people who have spent a long career in politics.”
In the 4th District race, candidates still have work to do to introduce themselves to voters, Karpowitz said.
“If the governor’s race is about candidates with considerable political experience and name recognition, the 4th District is in some ways the opposite,” he said. “I’m also struck by the variety of life experiences and career backgrounds the candidates will bring to the campaign. But precisely because of those differences, the campaign has the potential to generate interest ... if the voters aren’t completely distracted by the pandemic.”
Christensen said the race is wide open because voters haven’t tuned in yet.
“I don’t think they’ve looked at the candidates and said, ‘I don’t know who I want yet.’ I just don’t think they’ve looked at the candidates,” Christensen said. “We’re just going to have to get the message out. ... I think the governor’s race just sort of takes up a lot of oxygen.”
Coleman said in a statement, “What Republican voters will care about is who can win. By every measure — platform, experience, organization, volunteer base, endorsements and fundraising — our campaign is head and shoulders above the others. A convention under trying circumstances showed that; the primary will remove any doubt.”
Owens, who participated in a Zoom webinar Monday about the Democratic hold on minorities and Hollywood, said, “It was great to see so many delegates were hungry for a political outsider. We’re excited to take our message to the primary voters now, where we are confident our message of head, heart, hands and home will resonate.”
