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SALT LAKE CITY — This could be the peak week for COVID-19 deaths and hospitalizations in Utah, according to the latest estimation models from the University of Washington.
The state epidemiologist, Dr. Angela Dunn, said she was hopeful, but not confident in the prediction. Dunn was confident Utah’s health care systems can handle a surge in patients.
Projections from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation have changed several times during the past month, as new data has been entered. The latest projections showed the state will hit peak deaths on Saturday, and peak hospitalizations on Friday.
“(There are) lots of models out there,” Dr. Dunn said. “They are all inaccurate. Some are very helpful.”
She said if Utah peaked in COVID-19 deaths this week and started to see a decrease, that would be a good thing, but it’s too early to read that trend in state data.
“There are signs we are starting to flatten the curve, which would be a good sign with mortality, as well,” set Dr. Dunn. “However, we are preparing that in case we continuously see an increase.”
Related:
Utah sees 144 new cases of COVID-19, 1 new death
Utah’s number of COVID-19 cases has increased by 144 from Sunday with one new reported death, according to the Utah Department of Health.Three weeks ago, the model projected 18 deaths in Utah for five straight days at the peak. The same model predicted six deaths on Monday, with a peak of seven deaths each day starting Wednesday and lasting through early next week.
The model also predicted peak hospitalizations of 331 statewide on Friday. Fortunately, the Utah Department of Health reported only one death Monday, for a total of 28 so far — much smaller than the model originally predicted.
“We do see some good signs,” Dr. Dunn said. “However, we are going to continuously watch it for the next week or so before we can have any confidence in the true trends that we’re seeing.”
The IHME model has been based upon the assumption that social distancing would continue until infections start to minimize. As of Monday, the infection rate remained high and steady.
“We are very fortunate in Utah that all of our health care systems are prepared for a surge in patients due to COVID-19,” said Dr. Dunn.
Officials said stopping elective surgeries early in the outbreak enabled Utah hospitals to conserve their personal protective equipment and beds for those who might need it with the coronavirus outbreak.
“We’re definitely prepared in this state for that,” Dunn said.
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