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SALT LAKE CITY — For the first time in the race between Rep. Mia Love and Salt Lake County Mayor Ben McAdams, the 4th Congressional District race has been rated as leaning toward the Democratic candidate.
FiveThirtyEight, an analysis website owned by ABC News famous for political predictions by its founder, Nate Silver, now gives McAdams a 60.6 percent chance of beating the two-term Republican incumbent.
The website had rated Utah's most competitive race a toss-up, as Cook Political Report and a number of other ratings entities continue to do. The University of Virginia's Sabato's Crystal Ball still sees the race as leaning Republican.
The new "classics" rating posted Thursday is based on a number of factors, including recent polls by the New York Times that found the race was tied, and a Dixie Strategies poll for KUTV that showed McAdams up by 7 points.
A "deluxe" rating by FiveThirtyEight that takes into account how other rating entities view the race, continues to call it a toss-up. No other major rating entity has said the race leans Democrat.
"Predictions are all over the map in these final days," Love's campaign manager, Dave Hansen, said. "Our focus right now is making sure that every Mia supporter votes."
Hansen said Love's campaign continues to be "very confident that when the votes are counted, the only poll that truly matters, Mia Love will win."
McAdams' campaign manager, Andrew Roberts, said it's a close race.
"The mayor is running because we need to get Washington working again by bringing Republicans and Democrats together. The poll that matters the most is the one on Election Day."
Roberts said despite the latest rating change, "we're campaigning like we're 5 points behind and not taking anything for granted."
The Utah Republican Party sent out an email later Thursday urging party members to join in one final effort on Saturday in West Jordan to get out the vote, warning, "Mia Love needs your help!"
State GOP Chairman Rob Anderson said in the email the party and Love's campaign will be visiting people who normally vote straight-ticket Republican but have not yet turned in their ballots, noting other races are also at stake.
"In this tight race every vote can make a major different in the outcome of not only Mia's race but other close races in those areas as well," Anderson said. "Please help us get the win by showing up and helping for a couple of hours this weekend!" Email: lroche@ksl.com Twitter: DNewsPolitics
