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Keith McCord ReportingWhile the national economic picture is slowing, Utah's is still going strong. Utah's economy is likely to slow down, but it may not occur for a few months yet, perhaps not even until next year!
We're a well-oiled machine right now, with good job growth, low unemployment and consumers are still spending. Utah economists are in agreement, our economy is screaming along. Last week, Zion's Bank Economist Jeff Thredgold said, "Utah's economy is running at about 90 miles an hour right now."
Today, Wells Fargo Executive Vice President Kelly Matthews put it this way, "I think in terms of the entire picture, not one in particular indicator, but I believe that this is the strongest economy that we've ever had."
Both Matthews and Thredgold believe the trend will continue at least through the end of the year. So what's driving all this? It's a combination of factors, all working together in sync:
- the job growth rate is up 4.5 percent over last year, meaning, roughly 8,000 more jobs will be created by year's end.
- More jobs means lower unemployment-- down almost a percentage point from a last year.
- Home values are appreciating like never before.
Kelly Matthews: "We will probably slow down a bit, but at the moment, if you combine the number of people, the number of jobs and the number of homes being built, we're still within reasonable equilibrium range."
On average, home prices have appreciated anywhere between 15 and 20 percent compared to last year. In the St. George area it's more like 30%. And it's not just a Utah phenomenon; our neighbors--Nevada, Arizona and Idaho-- are also riding this swift economic wave.
This will slow down ultimately. Economics goes in cycles, but Kelly Matthews says, hopefully in the form of taking an economic "breather" as opposed to a boom and bust scenario.
Kelly Matthews, Wells Fargo Exec. V.P.: "But at the moment, I would have to say, from my experience, we would have to be a 10. I haven't experienced anything much better, so it's about as good as it gets."
What will slow it all down though? Energy prices are likely to if they continue to climb. Eventually consumers will cut back on spending and that will affect the entire economic picture.
