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AP-UT-GJT-UT SuppressionForecast
000
FNUS75 KGJT 151651
FWSGJT
SPOT FORECAST FOR EAST CABAZON...DURANGO DISPATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1051 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014
FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1018 MDT ON APRIL 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
.DISCUSSION...
MIXING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THE INVERSION THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S BY MID AFTERNOON WILL
BRING VERY GOOD SMOKE DISPERSAL...BUT ALSO INCREASE THE WINDS
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND THIS WILL LEAD
TO LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HUMIDITY WILL
BE SLOW TO RECOVER OVERNIGHT AND WILL AGAIN DROP TO NEAR 15
PERCENT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A FRONT WILL BE DROPPING INTO
THE SAN JUANS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE LOW THIS WILL
GET TO THE FIRE SITE. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE FRONT
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE HILLS...WITH GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS A THREAT TO IMPACT THE FIRE.
.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 THROUGH 1300 THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 58 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........6-11%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH INCREASING TO
11 TO 16 MPH NEAR 1300. GUSTS TO 25 MPH AFTER
1400.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR THROUGH 1200 THEN INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
BY 1300.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10000 FT AGL IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 MPH INCREASING TO 25 AFTER 1300.
.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 34 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........21-26%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH PRIOR TO SUNSET
BECOMING TERRAIN DRIVEN BY 2000.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD THROUGH SUNSET THEN DECREASING TO
POOR BY LATE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8600 FT AGL DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1000
FT AGL IN THE BY MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 25 MPH THROUGH SUNSET THEN BECOMING
TERRAIN DRIVEN.
.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH 1100 (50-60THEN
BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AFTER
1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 56 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........14-19%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......TERRAIN DRIVEN 8 MPH OR LESS THROUGH 1000 THEN
BECOMING SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE MORNING 5 TO 8 MPH.
WINDS INCREASING TO 13 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR
25 MPH IN THE AFTER 1400.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR THROUGH 1000 THEN INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
BY 1300.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL OR LESS THROUGH 1000 THEN INCREASING
TO 9800 FT AGL BY 1300.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5 MPH INCREASING TO WEST 25 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON.
$$
FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS
REQUESTED BY...BETH
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20140415.EASTC.01/GJT
Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Tue Apr 15 2014 12:51PM EDT
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