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AP-UT-GJT-UT SuppressionForecast



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AP-UT-GJT-UT SuppressionForecast

000

FNUS75 KGJT 151651

FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR EAST CABAZON...DURANGO DISPATCH

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO

1051 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1018 MDT ON APRIL 15.

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER

SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

MIXING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THE INVERSION THROUGH THE EARLY

AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S BY MID AFTERNOON WILL

BRING VERY GOOD SMOKE DISPERSAL...BUT ALSO INCREASE THE WINDS

FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON

HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND THIS WILL LEAD

TO LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HUMIDITY WILL

BE SLOW TO RECOVER OVERNIGHT AND WILL AGAIN DROP TO NEAR 15

PERCENT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A FRONT WILL BE DROPPING INTO

THE SAN JUANS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE LOW THIS WILL

GET TO THE FIRE SITE. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE FRONT

WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE HILLS...WITH GUSTY

OUTFLOW WINDS A THREAT TO IMPACT THE FIRE.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 THROUGH 1300 THEN BECOMING

PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50.

MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 58 F.

MIN HUMIDITY........6-11%.

20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH INCREASING TO

11 TO 16 MPH NEAR 1300. GUSTS TO 25 MPH AFTER

1400.

SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR THROUGH 1200 THEN INCREASING TO VERY GOOD

BY 1300.

HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.

LAL.................1.

MIXING HEIGHT.......3400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10000 FT AGL IN THE

AFTERNOON.

TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 MPH INCREASING TO 25 AFTER 1300.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40.

MIN TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 34 F.

MAX HUMIDITY........21-26%.

20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH PRIOR TO SUNSET

BECOMING TERRAIN DRIVEN BY 2000.

SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD THROUGH SUNSET THEN DECREASING TO

POOR BY LATE EVENING.

HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.

LAL.................1.

MIXING HEIGHT.......8600 FT AGL DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1000

FT AGL IN THE BY MIDNIGHT.

TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 25 MPH THROUGH SUNSET THEN BECOMING

TERRAIN DRIVEN.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH 1100 (50-60THEN

BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80. ISOLATED

SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AFTER

1400.

MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 56 F.

MIN HUMIDITY........14-19%.

20-FOOT WINDS.......TERRAIN DRIVEN 8 MPH OR LESS THROUGH 1000 THEN

BECOMING SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE MORNING 5 TO 8 MPH.

WINDS INCREASING TO 13 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR

25 MPH IN THE AFTER 1400.

SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR THROUGH 1000 THEN INCREASING TO EXCELLENT

BY 1300.

HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.

LAL.................1.

MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL OR LESS THROUGH 1000 THEN INCREASING

TO 9800 FT AGL BY 1300.

TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5 MPH INCREASING TO WEST 25 MPH IN

THE AFTERNOON.

$$

FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS

REQUESTED BY...BETH

TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE

.TAG 20140415.EASTC.01/GJT

Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Tue Apr 15 2014 12:51PM EDT

Copyright © The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

The Associated Press

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