Democratic dreams of Congressional majority riding wave of women candidates

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By SCOTT SHEPARD

WASHINGTON - An unusually large wave of female candidates promising honesty in government is giving Democrats hope of regaining the majority in the scandal-plagued Congress this year.

An important test of those hopes comes this week in California's special election to replace imprisoned Republican ex-Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham.

Democrat Francine Busby is trying to pull an upset victory over Republican Brian Bilbray on Tuesday in a San Diego area congressional district that has been a GOP stronghold for decades. A win by Busby - polls show her even with Bilbray, a former congressman seeking a comeback - would signal not only discontent with Republicans but a golden opportunity for women to increase their meager ranks in Congress.

Experts say it probably will not eclipse 1992, the legendary "Year of the Woman" in American politics, when the number of women in Congress jumped from 32 to 54. But still, "even if it's not a great year, it should be a good year," Debbie Walsh, director of the Center for American Women and Politics, said in an interview.

If so, it should be a good year for the Democrats, because nearly three of every four women running for Congress this year is running as a Democrat. And when the American electorate is in a throw-the-bums-out mood, as they were in 1992, it benefits women, candidates and experts agree.

"People are beginning to be tired of all the corruption and to believe that women are probably better suited to serve in Congress," Stephanie Studebaker, a Democratic congressional candidate in the Dayton, Ohio, area, said in an interview. "We have the ability to compromise a little bit better than men do. Women are peacemakers in the family, and we watch our fiscal situations like a hawk."

Walsh agreed.

"Women candidates have some special appeal in a moment like this one - when people see the scandals in Washington and feel the system is broken and they want something different," Walsh said. "Women, without saying anything, look different, and that image of difference really resonates."

That may be why, with the Abramoff ethics investigation expanding and a federal probe of White House leaks of a CIA officer's identity continuing, 177 women have either filed or announced their candidates for Congress, according to the latest figures assembled by Walsh's organization, the nation's foremost research group on women and politics.

Even the war in Iraq may be working in the favor of female candidates.

"National security issues usually are a bit harder for women, but this is not a moment where people are galvanized on one side or the other," Walsh said. "People are feeling like this is a policy that that's not working, and they are looking for new ideas on how to deal with it - people with a different perspective."

Only 12 states have held nominating primaries so far, so the number of female congressional candidates for 2006 will eventually drop, but it could still top the record 151 that ran in the fall of 2004, which was 34 more than in the hallmark 1992 races.

There is still, however, a major obstacle to increasing the number of women in Congress: redistricting has resulted in very few open seats for Democratic or Republican women. Of the 177 running this year, 66 are incumbents, 37 are running in open seats in only 21 districts and 74 are challenging incumbents.

Democrats can claim 122 of them, a strong indication that women are "at least part of the strategy" of Democrats to win enough seats to regain control of at least one of the houses of Congress they held in 1992, Walsh said. Democrats need to gain 15 seats in order to control the 435 member House, and six to have a majority in the 100-seat Senate.

The outcome of Tuesday's special election in California's 50th congressional district between Busby and Bilbray could show whether that is achievable.

"A Busby victory would be a scary event for Republicans," said Jack Pitney, a former Republican National Committee researcher who is now professor at Claremont McKenna College in California. "They'd experience the same feeling you get when the dentist looks into your mouth and says 'uh oh.'"

"It's possible to over use terms like 'perfect storm' and it's still likely that GOP voters will both stay loyal and turn out and vote (for Bilbray)," said Shaun Bowler, a University of California political science professor. "But if there was a perfect storm that threatens the local GOP, this is it."

Busby has run a surprisingly strong campaign in a congressional district that has long been reliably Republican. President Bush carried it by 11 percentage points over Democrat John Kerry in 2004, his same margin of victory over Al Gore there in 2000. Voters in the district elected Cunningham eight times by even larger margins. In 2004, in fact, Cunningham defeated Busby, 58-36 percent.

But last fall, Cunningham pleaded guilty to accepting bribes from a defense contractor and was sentenced to prison, another example of what Democrats have charged is a "culture of corruption" that has taken root in Washington under Republican rule, a charge Busby has repeatedly aired in her campaign.

Bilbray, on the other hand, has emphasized cracking down on illegal immigration, taking issue with a comprehensive immigration reform bill sponsored by in the Senate by Republican presidential hopeful John McCain. The move prompted the popular GOP icon to cancel a fundraising appearance for Bilbray.

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Consequently, "Brian's dream wave seems to be turning into a gnarly nightmare," Carl Luna, a political science professor at San Diego Mesa College wrote last Wednesday in a blog for the San Diego Union-Tribune. His prediction: "Busby by a nose."

"Surveys suggest that voters regard female candidates as more honest than male candidates," Pitney added. "So when ethics is the issue, women have the edge."

For overall gains by women in 2006, though, "the bottom line is that there are very few seats in play," Barbara Palmer, co-author of a new book "Breaking the Political Glass Ceiling: Women and Congressional Elections," said. "My guess is that we will see an above average increase in the number of women in Congress, but we will never see the kind of increase we did in 1992 because of redistricting."

Since that year, the average increase in the number of women in Congress has been two in any given election cycle. Today, women hold just 81 of the 535 seats in Congress, or 15.1 percent, the most ever. Fifty-two are Democrats, 29 are Republicans. Three women also serve as non-voting delegates to the House of Representatives from Guam, the Virgin Islands and the District of Columbia.

Still, just as in 1992, after scandals involving congressional check-kiting at the House Bank and cash-for-stamps at the House Post Office, the current political climate reflects "a very strong 'kick the bums out' mentality," Palmer noted. "And female candidates are perceived to be 'outsiders,' even female incumbents. And this does help them quite a bit when corruption is the news."

Scott Shepard's e-mail address is sshepard(at)coxnews.com.

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Cox News Service