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Ed Yeates ReportingThe hurricane season officially begins tomorrow. And as it does, a Utah meteorologist is leaving for the Atlantic as part of a research team trying to learn more about these violent storms.
As high pressure moves in over our fair state, Dr. Edward Zipser at the University of Utah is getting ready to fly into the heart of tropical storms in the Atlantic.
After last year, folks in the gulf coast area are feeling a bit anxious as a new season officially begins. It appears evacuation won't be an issue this time should a storm hit again.
Dr. Edward Zipser, University of Utah Meteorology: "Certainly anybody who was in Katrina's flooding is going to run for their lives, this time."
University of Utah meteorologist Dr. Edward Zipser says while forecasters do a pretty good job locating storms, and a remarkably good job predicting their paths. He can't say the same about intensity.
Dr. Zipser: "The state of knowledge, unfortunately, is we really don't know how to predict intensity very accurately at all. So the five day outlook for a storm can be completely wrong."
That's why Dr. Zipser and his colleagues will fly into the heart of tropical disturbances as they peel off West Africa every four to five days. Only ten to 20 percent develop into powerful storms. But in the genesis of these babies is a recipe of how intensity develops and what keeps it going.
Katrina weakened from a category five to a three 24 hours before it came on shore. And how about Rita?
Dr. Zipser: "Consider the people in the Houston, Galveston area. They had a massive evacuation and nothing happened."
Then there was Lilly that hit the Louisiana coast four years ago.
Dr. Zipser: "Nobody really expected that storm would weaken from a category four to a category one. We really need more information, more knowledge, basic knowledge of how a hurricane works."
Evidence so far shows these storms in general appear to be more frequent and more intense than they were twenty or 30 years ago -- more reason again to refine forecasting.
